PredictionMachine.com’s Manager of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, reviews the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.
Three Up
Georgia Bulldogs
2012 Record: Straight-Up 5-0, Against-the-Spread 2-3
Previous Game: 51-44 shootout win over Tennessee
Georgia came into this game with a top-10 defense but struggled to contain Tennessee’s high power offense. That’s ok because Georgia goes all “Oh, it’s already been brought’n!” and drops 560 yards of total offense on the Vols in what would become the fifth highest scoring game in a non-overtime SEC game. Georgia’s defense did step up when it counted taking the ball away three times in the final seven minutes (interception, fumble, interception).
Tennessee scored 20 straight points in the second quarter to take a 30-27 lead but the Live ScoreCaster still predicted Georgia’s win percentage to be 61.9%. Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall ensured the app’s prediction was correct as they combined for 294 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns. Georgia faces its toughest challenge yet this season as the Bulldogs head to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks.
Trends
The total has gone under in South Carolina’s last 5 games against the Bulldogs
The total has gone over in all 5 of Georgia’s games this year
West Virginia Mountaineers
2012 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 1-3
Previous Game: 70-63 record setting game against Baylor
Let's talk records:
Big 12’s highest scoring game ever
Geno Smith’s eight touchdowns tied conference record
Nick Florence broke RG3’s school record for passing with 581 yards
Most points scored involving a team ranked in the AP poll
West Virginia school-record for 807 yards of total offense
Terrance Williams set the Big 12’s record for receiving yards with 314
19 combined touchdowns tied an FBS mark
Baylor tied an FBS mark for most points scored by a losing team
Smith also set school records for completions, yards, and TDs for a single-game
Geno Smith’s performance Saturday makes him the current favorite to win the Heisman. You could have wagered on him at 12-1 before the season began. His chances look good right now while others including Matt Barkley (3-1), Montee Ball (7-1), and Denard Robinson (10-1) have seen their campaigns take a hit due to losses and poor performances.
Trends
The total has gone under in 6 of Texas’s last 9 games
West Virginia is 2-8 against-the-spread in its last 10 games
Texas Longhorns
2012 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 3-1
Previous Game: 41-36 road victory over Oklahoma State
A game that saw six lead changes, four in the 4th quarter, wasn’t decided until Joe Bergeron scored from two yards out with 29 seconds remaining. Texas, with losing records in Big 12 play each of the last two seasons, got its first conference win of the season in a tough road victory in Stillwater. David Ash continues to improve as a quarterback completing 30 of 37 passes for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Next up for Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma. IF you believe in Texas, IF you think they will win each of these games, and IF you think they have a shot at the BCS championship then you should take advantage of Texas’s odds. Currently, they are 25-1 to win the BCS title, according to Bovada. If Texas wins against WVU and OU expect those odds to come down.
Trends
West Virginia has won its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone under in 5 of Texas’s last 6 games at home
Three Down
Stanford Cardinal
2012 Record: Straight-Up 3-1, Against-the-Spread 2-2
Previous Game: 17-13 letdown against Washington
When we last saw Stanford they were riding high coming off of a 21-14 victory over USC. That win catapulted the Cardinal from 21st in the rankings to 9th. There were some stark differences between the win over USC and the loss to Washington. In victory, Stanford’s defense set the tone creating three turnovers and limiting USC to 26 yards rushing. In defeat, it was Washington’s defense that created two turnovers and limited Stanford to only 65 yards rushing.
Stanford’s offense failed to score a touchdown for the first time since 2007. Stepfan Taylor looked like an all-conference back against USC when he rushed for 153 yards. The Huskies stifled Taylor limiting him to 3.6 yards per carry (2.3 yard average as a team).
Trends
Arizona is 1-4 against-the-spread in its last 5 games when playing Stanford
Stanford is 22-3 straight-up in its last 25 games
Michigan State Spartans
2012 Record: Straight-Up 3-2, Against-the-Spread 1-4
Previous Game: 17-16 conference loss to Ohio State
It was only a month ago that I was trumpeting the Spartan’s win over Boise State. A disastrous loss to Notre Dame, a narrow victory over Eastern Michigan, and a disappointing home loss to Ohio State, the fourth in a row to the Buckeyes, puts Michigan State at the bottom of the Leaders Division. Michigan State failed to capitalize on three turnovers from Braxton Miller and only converted 4 of 15 third-down chances.
Sweet stat of the game: According to ESPN Stats & Information – Le’Veon Bell was hit within two yards of the line of scrimmage on 15 of 17 rushes against the Buckeyes. Entering Saturday, Bell made it more than two yards past the line before being hit on 48 of 117 rushes.
Trends
The total has gone over in 4 of Michigan State’s last 5 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 1-7 against-the-spread in its last 8 games when playing Michigan State
Houston Cougars
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-3, Against-the-Spread 1-3
Previous Game: 35-14 over Rice for first win of season
I want to use the last spot in this week’s column to recognize a team that has put its fans (and gamblers) through a roller coaster ride in the last twelve months. At the end of last season Houston was ranked, had Case Keenum and Kevin Sumlin, were averaging over 50 points a game and most importantly were 10-3 against-the-spread. But Keenum graduated to the NFL, Sumlin left for greener pastures (Texas A&M) and anyone who was hoping to cheer (bet) the Cougars in 2012 have been left with a bad taste in their mouth.
Trends
North Texas is 2-8 straight-up in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone under in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games