PredictionMachine.com’s Manager of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, reviews the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.
Three Up
Florida Gators
2012 Record: Straight-Up 7-0, Against-the-Spread 6-1
Previous Game: Welcome to the Swamp 44-11 over the Gamecocks
This game is a perfect example of a good process and a good outcome when it comes to gambling. The process: South Carolina averages 145 yards rushing per game (82nd in the country) and was going to be without leading rusher Marcus Lattimore which would further limit their ability to run the ball. If South Carolina was not going to be able to rush the ball then Florida (5th best in defensive pass efficiency) could key on Connor Shaw and limit his ability to get the ball down the field.
The outcome: the Gamecocks were unable to run the ball (36 yards rushing), Florida then shut down the passing attack of South Carolina and the Gators ended up rolling. The cover was never in doubt as Florida makes a claim as the best team in the country.
Trends
The total has gone under in 6 of Florida’s last 9 games
The total has gone over in 4 of Georgia’s last 5 games when playing Florida
Kansas State Wildcats
2012 Record: Straight-Up 7-0, Against-the-Spread 5-1-1
Previous Game: Left no doubt, 55-14 beatdown of WVU
The Wildcats were outscored 7-3 in the 4th quarter but it did not matter as they had already put up 52 points against #13 West Virginia, EMAW! Collin Klein ain’t no hollaback girl but he is bananas, he threw for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns while also rushing for 4 more scores. Klein was a 75/1 favorite to win the Heisman at the start of the season. After three weeks OptimusKlein had moved to 15/1, expect him to become the favorite after this week’s performance.
Geno Smith on the other hand has seen his Heisman stock plummet over the last two weeks. WVU defense has been unable to stop anyone, K-State scored on eight straight possessions. It's all roses right now in Manhattan as KSU prepares for the second half of its Big 12 schedule, next up a pesky Texas Tech team.
Trends
The total has gone over in 4 of Texas Tech’s last 5 games when playing Kansas State
Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas Tech
LSU Tigers
2012 Record: Straight-Up 7-1, Against-the-Spread 3-5
Previous Game: 24-19 comeback against Texas A&M
Johnny “Football” Manziel looked unstoppable…in the first quarter. Texas A&M got up early on LSU leading 9-0 after the first quarter. It got pretty ugly for Manziel and the Aggies after that. Manziel, the SEC leader in total offense, threw three interceptions and was limited to 27 yards rushing (SEC rushing leader). LSU’s defense was the key to victory as they forced five turnovers and carried an offense that has struggled to score.
The Tigers have enjoyed a successful rushing attack this season behind sophomore Kenny Hilliard. However, Zach Mettenberger has not been the answer for the Tiger’s passing attack. He has only completed 56% of his passes on the season and the team averages 177 yards passing a game, which ranks 112th in the country. LSU has a bye and then faces Alabama.
Trends
The total has gone over in 4 of Alabama’s last 7 games
LSU is 1-4 against-the-spread in its last 5 games
Three Down
Louisville Cardinals
2012 Record: Straight-Up 7-0, Against-the-Spread 3-4
Previous Game: Undeserving 27-25 win over South Florida
Louisville is undefeated and ranked #16 in the BCS standings. They make my bottom three because I bet the Cardinals to cover -6.5 and they broke my heart. This is an example of a good process and a bad outcome when it comes to gambling. The process: coming into the game Louisville had the 31st ranked defense according to our Power Rankings. More importantly they were 13th best in defensive rush efficiency. Like the Florida example above, if you can shut down the run then you can focus on the pass. This would be key in this game because South Florida’s BJ Daniels had thrown for over 1,500 yards.
The outcome: Louisville’s stout rushing defense allowed 197 yards on the ground. BJ Daniels threw for three touchdowns and the Bulls scored 15 straight points in the 4th quarter to cover the spread. Louisville was lucky to win the game as Teddy Bridgewater threw a TD with less than two minutes remaining. If you didn’t already know this, even good bets do not always work out.
Trends
Cincinnati is 6-2 straight-up in its last 8 games on the road
Louisville is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last 6 games when playing Cincy
Cincinnati Bearcats
2012 Record: Straight-Up 5-1, Against-the-Spread 3-3
Previous Game: 23-29 road loss to Toledo
Cincinnati’s season in review:
Win 34-10 vs Pittsburgh, at the time: a nice conference win, hindsight: Pitt is 3-4.
Win 23-7 vs Delaware State, at the time: sloppy game but should have won by more, hindsight: possible warning sign of things to come.
Win 27-24 vs VaTech, at the time: a nice nonconference win, hindsight: VT is 4-4.
Win 52-14 vs Miami(OH), at the time: took care of business, hindsight: it was Homecoming weekend.
Win 49-17 vs Fordham, at the time: Fordham is terrible, hindsight: Fordham plays in the Patriot league.
This was a trap game for Cincinnati facing a Toledo team that is 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against-the-spread this season. The Bearcats have a chance to bounce back with a win against Louisville.
Trends
The total as gone under in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 road games
Louisville is 4-8 against-the-spread in its last 12 games at home
TCU Horned Frogs
2012 Record: Straight-Up 5-2, Against-the-Spread 3-4
Previous Game: 56-53 triple overtime loss to Texas Tech
A week ago I used this spot in the 3 Down section to hate on Rutgers. This week I’m going to hate on TCU. I feel vitriolic towards teams that I feel are undeserving of national rankings because the team I cheer for, Missouri, is having a terrible season and its making me bitter. We projected TCU to finish 8th in the Big 12 and to win only 6 games. The TCU under on 7.5 wins for the season was one of our strongest plays, check out how the rest of our picks are doing here. TCU needs three more wins to go over the total. Their remaining games are @ Ok State, @ #19 West Virginia, home vs. #3 Kansas St, @ #23 Texas and home vs. #8 Oklahoma. TCU has to win 60% of its remaining games to cover the win total, it is not going to happen…hate, hate, hate!
Trends
The total has gone under in 4 of TCU’s last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma State is 11-1 straight up in its last 12 games at home