PredictionMachine.com’s Manager of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, reviews the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.
Three Up
Florida State Seminoles
2012 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 2-1-1
Previous Game: 49-37 statement win over Clemson
Clemson winning 7-0, Live Scorecaster predicts FSU as a 60.4% favorite to win
Clemson winning 14-7, Live Scorecaster predicts FSU as a 58.1% favorite to win
Clemson winning 21-14, Live Scorecaster predicts FSU as a 54.7% favorite to win
Are you seeing the pattern? No, you feel like Billy Madison trying to learn French.
Clemson winning 28-21, Live Scorecaster predicts FSU as a 51.2% favorite to win
Clemson winning 31-27, Live Scorecaster predicts FSU as a 54.3% favorite to win
It took an EJ Manuel 29 yard touchdown pass to Rodney Smith before the Seminoles finally take the lead and the Live Scorecaster’s prediction of a FSU victory came into focus. EJ Manuel propelled himself into the Heisman conversation Saturday night completing 77% of his passes for 380 yards and two touchdowns. Manuel also rushed for 102 yards against Clemson, ranked 67th in rushing defense in our power rankings.
Florida State heads to South Florida next week to take on the Bulls.
Trends
South Florida is 0-5 against-the-spread in its last fiive games at home
Florida State is 4-2 straight-up in its last six games on the road
South Carolina Gamecocks
2012 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 3-1
Previous Game: 31-10 spanking of Mizzou
Don Draper probably had to drown his sorrow with multiple glasses of whisky after watching his Tigers go down in defeat. As a Mizzou fan, it pains me to write just how awful the Tigers looked against the Gamecocks but I tip my cap to South Carolina and Connor Shaw. Shaw was perfect, well almost; he completed 20 of 21 passes including 20 in a row. It is never good to play a team when two of its players set records. Shaw now has the second longest consecutive passing mark in the SEC and Marcus Lattimore, after rushing for two scores, set the South Carolina career mark in rushing touchdowns.
The Gamecocks looked good offensively but it was their defense and special teams that set the tone. The South Carolina defense only allowed 255 total yards of offense, a season low for Missouri. The return game continually gave South Carolina great field position. Next up: Kentucky.
Trends
The total has gone under in four of South Carolina’s last six games
Kentucky is 2-5 against-the-spread in its last seven games against the Gamecocks
Oregon Ducks
2012 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 1-3
Previous Game: 49-0 shutout of Arizona
Blind resume game, based on the following stats, which team wins?
Team A: Forces three turnovers and does not allow a 100 yard rusher
Team B: Compiles 495 yards of total offense but commits eight penalties
Given that information you might pick Team A because while they gave up 495 yards of offense they did force three turnovers and the other team seems to have hurt themselves further by committing so many penalties. However, if you picked Team A you would be wrong. Oregon, Team B, did make mistakes but not nearly as many as they forced Arizona into. In six trips to the red zone Arizona came away with nothing as the Oregon defense forced four turnovers (5 on the game).
The 49-0 victory over the Wildcats was the Ducks first conference shutout since 2003. Oregon heads to Washington State next week in their first road game of the season.
Trends
The total has gone over in four of Oregon’s last five games when playing at Wazzu
Washington State is 0-5 against-the-spread in its last five games
Three Down
Oklahoma Sooners
2012 Record: Straight-Up 2-1, Against-the-Spread 1-2
Previous Game: 24-19 letdown against Kansas State
We hear it every year, the quarterback that puts off going to the NFL in hopes of coming back for his senior year to win a national championship. Last year it was Andrew Luck but Stanford lost at home to Oregon, which derailed their title hopes. Like Luck, Landry Jones returned for his senior season in hopes of bringing a title to Norman. And like Stanford, Oklahoma lost at home to a conference rival and saw its chances of a national championship disappear.
Turnovers were the name of the game, Jones fumbled inside the Oklahoma 5-yardline which was recovered by the Wildcats for a touchdown. Oklahoma then fumbled on the K-State 1-yardline as they were about to score. Jones also added an interception to spoil a drive. Oklahoma will look to eliminate mistakes next week as they travel to Texas Tech.
Trends
Oklahoma was 3-3 against-the-spread in road games last year, 0-1 this year
Texas Tech was 2-4 against-the-spread at home last year, 2-0 this year
Kentucky Wildcats
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-3, Against-the-Spread 1-3
Previous Game: 38-0 shellacking from Florida
It was a rough day for the Wildcats who had to face the eighth best defense, according to our Power Rankings, without SEC leading passer Maxwell Smith (shoulder injury). QB #2, Morgan Newton, looked over-matched against the Gators completing only 33% of his passes and throwing three interceptions.
The good news, at least for our customers, is that the play on the Kentucky under for season total wins looks good. Check out how the rest of our over/under win total picks are doing. Kentucky gets South Carolina next week, the second of three straight games against ranked opponents.
Trends
South Carolina is 11-1 straight-up in its last 12 games against Kentucky
Kentucky is 1-5 straight-up in its last six games when playing South Carolina at home
Ohio State Buckeyes
2012 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 1-3
Previous Game: 29-15 triumph over…UAB
Ohio State is undefeated and Braxton Miller is putting up some gaudy numbers (754 yards passing, 7 touchdowns, 441 yards rushing, and 7 touchdowns) but the Buckeyes are not covering against-the-spread. Ohio State has been favored by an average of 23.5 points a game and has failed to cover in each of the last three games. Some reasons for this are that Ohio State is 55th in the nation on 3rd down conversions and they have committed the 20th most penalties in the country.
Ohio State will get a real test next week when they travel to East Lansing to face Michigan State.
Trends
Ohio State is 14-5-1 against-the-spread in its last 20 games on the road
Michigan State is 1-4 against-the-spread in its last five games at home