PredictionMachine.com’s Manager of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, reviews the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.
Three Up
Alabama Crimson Tide
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-0, Against-the-Spread 1-0
Previous Game: 41-14 victory over Michigan
“S-E-C!, S-E-C!,” chanted Alabama fans at the end of a 27-point victory, the worst season opening loss for the Wolverines in the 133 years of Michigan football. The Crimson Tide began the game with a quick three-and-out but then proceeded to score touchdowns on each of their next three possessions. The defense, the second best according to our Power Rankings, carried the night limiting Michigan to 2.4 yards per rush, creating three interceptions, and holding the Maize and Blue to 3-for-12 on third-down attempts.
My favorite stat of the night – Denard Robinson led the FBS with 102 rushes of 10+ yards over the past two seasons but against Alabama his longest run was 9 yards. Western Kentucky is next in a possible let-down game before a big match-up at Arkansas.
Trends
Western Kentucky is 4-1 straight-up in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone under in 10 of Alabama’s last 15 games at home.
Michigan State Spartans
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-0, Against-the-Spread 0-1
Previous Game: 17-13 victory over Boise St.
With 12:40 left in the 4th and trailing the Broncos by 3 points, Michigan St was still a 55.7% favorite to win according to Live ScoreCaster. It wasn’t until Le’Veon Bell’s second touchdown of the night four minutes later that the score reflected our prediction. Bell, in his first game as the Spartans’ featured back, had 44 carries for 210 yards which was more offense than Boise St. totaled as a team.
The Spartans’ quarterback, Andrew Maxwell, looks to bounce back against Central Michigan after a poor showing where he completed 57.9% of his passes and threw three interceptions.
Trends
Central Michigan is 1-5 against-the-spread in its last 6 games at home.
Michigan State is 4-1 straight-up in its last 5 games when playing Central Michigan.
Tennessee Volunteers
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-0, Against-the-Spread 1-0
Previous Game: 35-21 victory over NC State
In the span of 38 seconds the Volunteers scored 16 points on two touchdowns and a safety late in the first quarter that gave Tennessee a 22-7 lead that the Wolf Pack was never able to overcome. Cordarrelle Patterson, a junior college transfer, scored two of the Volunteers first-quarter touchdowns.
Tennessee looks to rebound this season following a 5-7 finish in 2011 that saw the Vols go 1-7 in SEC play. Tennessee gets a tune-up game against Georgia State before facing Florida in their first conference game.
Trends
The total has gone under in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games at home.
Georgia State lost 63-7 at Alabama in its last game against an SEC opponent.
Three Down
Penn State Nittany Lions
2012 Record: Straight-Up 0-1, Against-the-Spread 0-1
Previous Game: 24-14 loss to Ohio
Penn State blew an 11-point half-time lead as the Ohio Bobcats handed the Nittany Lions their first season-opening loss since 2001. Penn State allowed 21 unanswered points and failed to stop the Bobcats on third down, 11 of 12 times in the second half. Costly turnovers including a fumble on the Ohio 21 yard line, turnover on downs, and a late interception sunk Penn State.
For some the fact that football was even being played after an offseason that included the death of Joe Paterno and NCAA sanctions was a victory in itself. Penn State faces Virginia next who put up 43 points and 545 total yards in its first game.
Trends
The total has gone under in 5 of Penn State’s last 6 games.
Virginia is 4-2 in its last 6 games at home.
Stanford Cardinal
2012 Record: Straight-Up 1-0, Against-the-Spread 0-1
Previous Game: 20-17 victory over San Jose State
Poor open-field tackling, game-clock management, and the lack of quarterback pressure when it counts – almost cost the Cardinal a victory against a team they beat a year ago 57-3. San Jose State, a team we projected to finish 3rd in the WAC, out-gained Stanford 288 to 280 total yards and held them to 2 of 13 on third down conversions.
Jordan Williamson saved Stanford by converting the go-ahead score from 20 yards. However, the Cardinal do not want to leave games in the hands of a kicker from fear of results like in last year's Fiesta Bowl. Next up, the Duke Blue Devils.
The total has gone under in 9 of Duke's last 13 games on the road.
Stanford is 15-1 straight-up in its last 16 games at home.
Pittsburgh Panthers
2012 Record: Straight-Up 0-1, Against-the-Spread 0-1
Previous Game: 31-17 loss to Youngstown State.
Youngstown State, a FCS program that had never beat a BCS school before, never trailed in their victory over the Panthers. The Penguins put the Panthers away when they converted a 4th and 1 on the Pitt 23 for a touchdown on their first drive of the second half.
Pitt was looking to bounce back after a 6-7 season in 2011 with an FCS cupcake game to open the season. Unfortunately for Panther fans an 0-3 start is in play as Pitt travels to Cincinnati next week and then gets Virginia Tech at home.
Trends
The total has gone under in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games on the road.
Cincinnati is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games.