College Basketball Homecourt Advantage Analysis @ PredictionMachine.com

Thursday, February 16 at 6:15 PM ET

Today's blog will revisit college basketball homecourt advantages.

College Basketball Homecourt Advantage:
A few weeks ago, we discussed our modifications of college basketball homecourt advantage, including a ranking of all 345 Division I homecourts. It may have been lost in the previous blog entry and deserves more focus. Plus, as part of some other engine tweaks we rolled out last week (more on that next week), we made some slight revisions to our homecourt advantage approach. And, logically, some of the numbers have changed over the last several weeks of games.

Homecourt advantage in college basketball is typically presumed to mean "about four points" (the average right now is actually closer to 3.7) difference in the final score. This means that if two teams were identical, neither team would be favored on a neutral court and the home team would be favored by about four if they played at one of the team's arenas. This can lead to essentially an eight point swing from one venue to the next. The truth is that some venues could actually mean up 10-11 points, while some do not help at all (and there are 345 DI college basketball arenas). Our historical accuracy in college basketball during preseason tournaments, conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament is greater than 60% ATS. However, in regular season games (i.e. where one team plays on its homecourt as opposed to the games being played on neutral courts), our performance has not nearly been as strong.

In addition to the obvious difference in our performance, tracking line movements in the Play Analyzer prior to our initial improvements to unique homecourt advantages noted lines played at the same arenas typically moved in the same direction. As we researched this further, it became clear that, aside from injuries or late-breaking roster information, line movements most often moved in the direction of homecourt (favoring a team with a strong homecourt by more or favoring the away team by more when the homecourt is not as strong). As generalized as I can state it, if the consensus for books is to flatly apply four points for the home team, those who understand the true application of home court advantages exploit that and, in turn, move the line. I do not mean to speak for books or even to say that blindly following this strategy will yield profitable results, but it did lead to some significant changes on our end as we better account for each venue's true value (relative to pace of play) both for the expectation in the game being played and in how to remove the bias of homecourt in a team's data. We have always done this to some degree, yet have drastically improved this process.

The updated chart below ranks every DI college basketball team in order of the strength of its homecourt (as ranked by expected points per possession that the homecourt adds). Sorry fans, it seems as though homecourt advantage is most closely tied to things beyond your control (at best, fan impact can be tied to free-throw percentage against, but I do not subscribe to that theory enough, nor is there enough of a statistical case to incorporate free-throw percentage against). Strong homecourts seem to fall into one of three categories: 1) High elevation (the top four arenas and six of the top eight are all at least 4,500 feet above sea level), 2) Extreme tempo teams (teams are more comfortable dictating tempo at home so the fast teams like Missouri tend to play their fastest and the slow teams like Wisconsin tend to play their slowest at home) and 3) Average conference teams that still draw sizable crowds (terrible teams are terrible anywhere and great teams are usually great anywhere, but average teams with a strong fanbase, like Oklahoma State, Alabama and Toledo have very good homecourt advantages). Remember that homecourt advantage compares expected scores at home AND on the road to quantify the value of playing at home.

In the chart, have included the raw, historical point values that we have calculated each of the 345 DI venues to warrant for home basketball games. Remember that the actual ranking is pace-adjusted. All data goes back to 2000. For teams that have new arenas, seasons in new arenas are given stronger consideration.

College Basketball Homecourt Advantage by Team:

Rank	Team	Points
1	Denver	10.9
2	Northern Arizona	10.2
3	Wyoming	9.1
4	Utah Valley	9.0
5	Toledo	8.7
6	Wisconsin	7.9
7	Utah St.	8.0
8	Northern Colorado	8.3
9	Howard	8.2
10	Missouri	7.9
11	Missouri St.	7.6
12	Miami (OH)	7.4
13	Alabama	7.5
14	Arkansas St.	7.4
15	Indiana	7.7
16	Nebraska	7.3
17	St. Francis PA	7.4
18	Oklahoma	7.4
19	Purdue	7.3
20	South Dakota	7.4
21	Colorado	7.2
22	Illinois	7.0
23	George Mason	7.2
24	Morehead St.	6.7
25	Notre Dame	6.7
26	Oklahoma St.	7.0
27	Tulsa	6.6
28	Miami FL	6.6
29	Wright St.	6.5
30	Pittsburgh	6.4
31	Longwood	6.7
32	Southern Methodist	6.1
33	Drake	6.4
34	Fresno St.	6.2
35	Mississippi Valley St.	6.6
36	Georgia Tech	6.3
37	Western Carolina	6.3
38	Stephen F. Austin	6.0
39	Charleston Southern	6.5
40	Drexel	6.0
41	Ohio	6.2
42	Northwestern	5.9
43	Wake Forest	6.1
44	Creighton	6.0
45	Arkansas	6.2
46	Texas St.	6.3
47	Ohio St.	6.0
48	College of Charleston	5.9
49	Idaho St.	5.8
50	Valparaiso	5.8
51	Eastern Michigan	5.5
52	Houston	5.8
53	Providence	5.7
54	Houston BaptiSt.	6.0
55	Duke	5.7
56	Arizona	5.5
57	Portland	5.6
58	Texas Pan American	5.4
59	Prairie View A&M	5.6
60	Auburn	5.5
61	Georgia Southern	5.4
62	Sacramento St.	5.4
63	Marist	5.5
64	Weber St.	5.4
65	Florida A&M	5.5
66	Southeastern Louisiana	5.2
67	Fordham	5.4
68	Clemson	5.2
69	Arkansas Pine Bluff	5.3
70	Illinois St.	5.2
71	Evansville	5.3
72	Temple	5.2
73	Georgia St.	5.2
74	Central Florida	5.1
75	Michigan	5.0
76	New Mexico	5.2
77	High Point	5.0
78	Louisiana Tech	5.0
79	Iowa	5.1
80	Murray St.	5.0
81	Texas Tech	4.9
82	Xavier	5.0
83	TCU	5.0
84	McNeese St.	4.9
85	St. John's	4.9
86	Kansas	5.0
87	UCLA	4.7
88	Nicholls St.	4.7
89	Canisius	4.7
90	Chicago St.	4.8
91	UTEP	4.6
92	Florida Gulf Coast	4.7
93	USC	4.5
94	Western Michigan	4.7
95	Belmont	4.7
96	Kansas St.	4.7
97	Bucknell	4.5
98	Southern	4.6
99	Hawaii	4.7
100	Navy	4.4
101	Youngstown St.	4.5
102	Lamar	4.6
103	South Carolina St.	4.6
104	South Carolina	4.4
105	Florida St.	4.5
106	Georgia	4.3
107	Bowling Green	4.4
108	Mississippi	4.4
109	Oregon St.	4.6
110	Campbell	4.4
111	Eastern Washington	4.4
112	Southern Utah	4.3
113	Maryland	4.4
114	Niagara	4.4
115	Old Dominion	4.3
116	Stanford	4.3
117	Alcorn St.	4.3
118	Harvard	4.1
119	Washington St.	4.2
120	St. Bonaventure	4.2
121	Western Illinois	4.0
122	Louisville	4.3
123	San Francisco	4.3
124	Dartmouth	4.1
125	St. Louis	4.1
126	Akron	4.2
127	Norfolk St.	4.2
128	Oakland	4.2
129	Baylor	4.1
130	Illinois Chicago	4.0
131	Middle Tennessee	4.0
132	Northwestern St.	4.1
133	Cornell	4.1
134	Kentucky	4.0
135	Texas A&M	3.9
136	North Carolina A&T	4.1
137	Buffalo	4.1
138	Louisiana Lafayette	4.1
139	Delaware	4.0
140	Furman	3.9
141	NJIT	3.9
142	Siena	3.9
143	Florida Atlantic	3.9
144	Nevada	3.9
145	Lipscomb	4.1
146	Wisconsin Green Bay	4.0
147	Eastern Kentucky	3.8
148	Stetson	4.0
149	Central Michigan	3.8
150	Arizona St.	3.7
151	Virginia Tech	3.7
152	Colorado St.	3.8
153	Winthrop	3.7
154	South Florida	3.6
155	Utah	3.6
156	Loyola Marymount	3.6
157	Portland St.	3.8
158	Troy	3.8
159	UAB	3.6
160	Memphis	3.7
161	Presbyterian	3.5
162	Northern Illinois	3.6
163	Washington	3.8
164	Duquesne	3.7
165	Ball St.	3.6
166	Iowa St.	3.6
167	Alabama A&M	3.6
168	North Carolina	3.8
169	Detroit	3.6
170	Oral Roberts	3.5
171	Montana St.	3.6
172	Cal St. Northridge	3.6
173	San Diego	3.6
174	Long Island	3.8
175	Central Connecticut	3.5
176	South Dakota St.	3.5
177	Southern Mississippi	3.5
178	Nebraska Omaha	3.7
179	Appalachian St.	3.5
180	Rhode Island	3.5
181	West Virginia	3.4
182	New Mexico St.	3.6
183	Wisconsin Milwaukee	3.4
184	William & Mary	3.3
185	Michigan St.	3.4
186	Monmouth	3.4
187	Villanova	3.4
188	Boise St.	3.3
189	IPFW	3.4
190	St. Mary's	3.2
191	Dayton	3.2
192	Vanderbilt	3.2
193	Indiana St.	3.2
194	California	3.2
195	Kent St.	3.2
196	Princeton	3.1
197	LSU	3.1
198	Maryland Eastern Shore	3.2
199	Tennessee Martin	3.1
200	IUPUI	3.1
201	Idaho	3.0
202	Mississippi St.	3.0
203	Oregon	3.0
204	Cincinnati	3.0
205	VCU	3.0
206	Mount St. Mary's	2.9
207	Holy Cross	3.0
208	Montana	2.9
209	Tennessee St.	2.9
210	Arkansas Little Rock	2.9
211	Marshall	2.9
212	Texas	2.8
213	UC Riverside	2.8
214	Sacred Heart	2.9
215	NC Wilmington	2.8
216	Mercer	2.8
217	San Jose St.	2.8
218	Davidson	2.9
219	Minnesota	2.7
220	Rutgers	2.7
221	East Tennessee St.	2.7
222	Charlotte	2.8
223	SIU Edwardsville	2.8
224	James Madison	2.7
225	UMKC	2.7
226	Hartford	2.7
227	Albany	2.7
228	North Texas	2.7
229	Western Kentucky	2.7
230	Bradley	2.7
231	Seattle	2.7
232	Wichita St.	2.6
233	Santa Clara	2.6
234	George Washington	2.5
235	North Dakota St.	2.5
236	Marquette	2.6
237	Morgan St.	2.5
238	Yale	2.5
239	Boston University	2.4
240	Delaware St.	2.3
241	South Carolina Upstate	2.4
242	Cal St. Bakersfield	2.4
243	Georgetown	2.3
244	Texas Southern	2.4
245	Northern Iowa	2.3
246	Chattanooga	2.4
247	Pepperdine	2.2
248	Hofstra	2.3
249	UC Irvine	2.4
250	Alabama St.	2.2
251	Jacksonville	2.3
252	Coppin St.	2.3
253	Texas Arlington	2.3
254	Louisiana Monroe	2.2
255	Saint Joseph's	2.2
256	Cleveland St.	2.1
257	Virginia	2.0
258	Columbia	2.1
259	Tennessee	2.1
260	Texas A&M Corpus Christi	2.1
261	North Carolina St.	2.1
262	New Hampshire	2.0
263	Liberty	2.0
264	Brigham Young	2.1
265	Syracuse	2.0
266	Lehigh	2.1
267	Long Beach St.	2.0
268	Tulane	1.9
269	Air Force	1.9
270	St. Francis NY	2.0
271	Robert Morris	1.9
272	Jackson St.	1.8
273	Brown	1.8
274	Boston College	1.8
275	Radford	1.8
276	Seton Hall	1.8
277	Cal St. Fullerton	1.8
278	American	1.7
279	Sam Houston St.	1.7
280	Penn St.	1.7
281	Florida	1.7
282	San Diego St.	1.7
283	Gardner Webb	1.6
284	North Dakota	1.6
285	Colgate	1.6
286	Binghamton	1.5
287	Eastern Illinois	1.5
288	Texas San Antonio	1.6
289	Tennessee Tech	1.6
290	Wagner	1.5
291	Austin Peay	1.5
292	Rice	1.5
293	Savannah St.	1.4
294	DePaul	1.5
295	Central Arkansas	1.5
296	Army	1.4
297	Southern Illinois	1.3
298	Kennesaw St.	1.3
299	UC Santa Barbara	1.2
300	Lafayette	1.2
301	North Carolina Central	1.2
302	Coastal Carolina	1.1
303	Pacific	1.0
304	Butler	1.0
305	Elon	0.9
306	Wofford	0.8
307	Massachusetts	0.8
308	La Salle	0.8
309	Stony Brook	0.7
310	Gonzaga	0.7
311	St. Peter's	0.7
312	Iona	0.7
313	Florida International	0.6
314	UNLV	0.5
315	Connecticut	0.4
316	East Carolina	0.4
317	Citadel	0.3
318	Bethune Cookman	0.3
319	Fairfield	0.1
320	Cal Poly	0.1
321	Manhattan	0.1
322	UC Davis	(0.1)
323	Fairleigh Dickinson	(0.1)
324	South Alabama	(0.1)
325	MD Baltimore County	(0.4)
326	Samford	(0.4)
327	Southeast Missouri St.	(0.4)
328	Quinnipiac	(0.4)
329	Jacksonville St.	(0.4)
330	NC Asheville	(0.5)
331	Towson	(0.6)
332	NC Greensboro	(0.7)
333	Pennsylvania	(0.7)
334	Rider	(0.7)
335	VMI	(0.8)
336	Grambling St.	(0.8)
337	Hampton	(1.0)
338	Vermont	(1.0)
339	Northeastern	(1.0)
340	Richmond	(1.1)
341	Loyola MD	(1.1)
342	Bryant	(1.3)
343	Maine	(1.3)
344	Loyola Chicago	(1.7)
345	North Florida	(2.7)

College Homecourts (2/16)

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Paul Bessire