New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    Buy/Sell Fantasy WRs (08/12/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing
    Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Greg Jennings: buying and selling three fantasy wide receivers that have slipped in 2013 drafts.

    Fantasy football players (and humans in general) are terrible at assessing risk. This is evident by recency bias in fantasy football drafts. Recency bias is the tendency for people to look at only the most recent events while disregarding older but equally important pieces of information. If you fall prey to it, recency bias will be detrimental to your fantasy team.
    Luckily, the Predictalator is able to account for all of the statistical contributions of a player without including our natural human bias. As such, we are able to tell you which players that are currently experiencing the effects of recency bias should be taken earlier in drafts than their current ADP (average draft position) commands and which players to avoid.
    Below we buy or sell three wide receivers that were drafted in the first or second round last season but are currently going in the third round or later in standard ten-team leagues. The 2012 and 2013 ADP rankings are per ESPN and are for standard scoring leagues.
    For all of our 2013 fantasy football rankings click here.
    Larry Fitzgerald
    2012 ADP: Overall - 10, WR 2
    2013 ADP: Overall - 32, WR 11

    Fitzgerald might have been our best call in fantasy last season. ESPN and Yahoo both ranked Fitz as the No. 2 receiver and a 1st round pick. We had Fitzgerald ranked as the No. 9 WR going as a late 2nd or 3rd round pick. A disappointing 2012 saw Fitz catch the second-fewest yards in his career, only 18 more than his rookie season (finished as the 43rd best WR in fantasy).
’s 2013 Projection:
    103 receptions, 1,210 yards, 9 TDs 

    Carson Palmer may not be considered an upgrade at quarterback to most NFL teams but for Fitzgerald he is a godsend. Last season Fitz was targeted 153 times (7th most in the NFL) but only caught 71 passes (26th in NFL) mostly because the balls were uncatchable. Palmer completed 61% of his passes; the four quarterbacks in Arizona combined to complete 55% for 11 TDs and 21 INTs. If our projections are accurate his 103 receptions would tie his career high and his 9 TDs would be his highest total since 2009.
    Verdict: Buy
    Andre Johnson
    2012 ADP: Overall - 11, WR 3
    2013 ADP: Overall - 29, WR 9

    Johnson had a fantastic 2012 campaign. He had 112 receptions (4th NFL) and a career high in yards 1,598 (2nd NFL) all while staying healthy and playing a full 16 games. So why is he slipping in drafts this season? Johnson only reached the end zone four times and with Arian Foster dominating in the red zone it may be difficult for Johnson’s TD total to increase.
’s 2013 Projection:
    87 receptions, 1,234 yards, 8 TDs
    Touchdowns are fickle in the NFL. For wide receivers that catch 10 or more TDs in a season, 76% do not catch double-digit touchdowns the next year. It is extremely difficult to predict who will catch touchdowns. However, I would bet on a guy that is going to accumulate a large number of receptions and yards.
    Verdict: Buy
    Greg Jennings
    2012 ADP: Overall - 15, WR 5
    2013 ADP: Overall - 80, WR 29

    After playing every game from 2008-2010, Jennings has missed 11 games over the last two seasons. In addition to lingering injuries, the 29-year-old receiver is switching from the best quarterback in the league, Aaron Rodgers, to Christian Ponder who finished 23rd in TDs and 25th in yards last season.
’s 2013 Projection:
    74 receptions, 753 yards, 6 TDs
    While Jennings will be the clear No. 1 option in Minnesota, he may also be the only option for Ponder, garnering double teams on nearly every passing down. Don’t get it twisted; Minnesota is a run first team. The Vikings have not had a 1,000 yard receiver since 2009 when Brett Favre was slinging passes for the purple and gold.
    Verdict: Sell 
    Print This Article
    Buy/Sell Fantasy QBs (08/14/13)
    Buy/Sell Fantasy RBs (08/09/13)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    03/13/2017 Highlight: Using our ResultsFinder tool, it's evident that the Predictalator is entering March Madness in incredible form. The Predictalator posted 59 "normal" or better plays in March (plays with greater than 57% confidence) and went a stellar 36-23 (61.0%) on those plays. An average $50 bettor would have profited $678 using our recommended wager sizes. After posting an outstanding 8-1 (88.9%) ATS record on "normal" or better sides in last year's NCAA Tournament, the Predictalator looks poised to produce more NCAA Tournament winners.

    NBA predictions continue to follow the same heat wave of college hoops, as all playable sides are 30-25 (54.5%) ATS in the month of March. More importantly, top plays continue to produce at a staggering clip, with all "normal" or better sides off to a solid 9-3 (75.0%) ATS mark in March, producing $284 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    The Predictalator's NHL picks continue to cash in consistenly as "normal" or better ML and PL plays are an outstanding 32-18 (64.0%) on the season, amassing $507 in total profits. While the betting market has really tightened up with NHL in recent months, the Predictalator continues to find success and is now 449-367 (55.0%) on all playable ML and PL plays this season.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    College Basketball Picks - Friday Games
    The Predictalator has played all of Thursday's NCAA Tournament games 50,000 times to analyze chances of each team winning relative to the spread and over/under. See UNC vs. Butler and more.

    A.L. MVP & Cy Young Odds
    Frank Brank explores the odds for A.L. MVP and A.L. Cy Young Awards posted at and gives a breakdown of the top contenders.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by