New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Undefeated Update (11/4/2013)

    Paul Bessire, General Manager, PredictionMachine.com
    By Paul Bessire

    Monday, November 4 at 7:00 PM ET

    Alabama, Oregon and Baylor were on a bye. Ohio State, Fresno State and Northern Illinois may as well have been (though Nevada made things closer against Fresno State than anticipated). And, this Thursday, we have two matchups of top ten BCS teams, including undefeated Baylor hosting Oklahoma and our top ranked team (again this week), Oregon, traveling to Stanford. With little happening (especially of a surprising nature) last week, we will give a quick update here on the undefeated odds and various scenarios for top teams in college football. After what should be an exciting overall week of action (Alabama also takes on LSU, which is #2 vs. #7 in our College Football Power Rankings). 

    To see how we do this and how the numbers have changed from last week, check out last week's article on Undefeated Odds. Next week, with some likely shake up, we will start to look at outcomes of specific BCS National Championship games. 

    College Football’s Undefeateds:

    There are currently five undefeated teams in BCS-AQ – Alabama, Oregon, Baylor, Florida State and Ohio State. The five undefeated teams have 24 remaining regular season games combined and could play in five conference championship games. In all of those games, the current undefeated team is favored in our projections. Here are the chances that each current undefeated FBS team wins all of its remaining regular season (and conference championship) games:

    Oregon Ducks

    Current Power Rank: 1
    Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 61
    Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship)
    Undefeated Chances: 40.4% 
    Closest Remaining Game: at Stanford (Thursday)
    Teams that would be favored over Oregon on a neutral field: None
    Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 40.4% (if Oregon wins out, the Ducks should be in)

    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Current Power Rank: 2
    Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 46
    Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship, though one of those games is against FCS Chattanooga)
    Undefeated Chances: 49.7% 
    Closest Remaining Game: SEC Championship Game (December 7)
    Teams that would be favored over Alabama on a neutral field: Oregon
    Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 49.7% (if Alabama wins out, the Tide should be in)

    Florida State Seminoles

    Current Power Rank: 3
    Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 53
    Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship)
    Undefeated Chances: 53.0%
    Closest Remaining Game: ACC Championship 
    Teams that would be favored over Florida State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama 
    Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 40.2% (if Florida State wins out and either Alabama or Oregon loses, Florida State should be in)

    Baylor Bears

    Current Power Rank: 5
    Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 92 (yeah, that's about to change quickly)
    Games Remaining: 5 (all against teams in top 40 of our Power Rankings)
    Undefeated Chances: 23.5%
    Closest Remaining Game: at Oklahoma State (November 23)
    Teams that would be favored over Baylor on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State
    Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 12.9% (if Baylor wins out and two teams from Alabama, Oregon and Florida State lose, Baylor should be in)

    Ohio State Buckeyes 

    Current Power Rank: 6
    Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 80
    Games Remaining: 4 (with conference championship, the next two of those are 90%+ victories for Ohio State)
    Undefeated Chances: 45.9% 
    Closest Remaining Game: B1G Championship Game
    Teams that would be favored over Ohio State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State, Texas A&M, Baylor 
    Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 21.1% (if Ohio State wins out and three teams from Alabama, Oregon, Baylor and Florida State lose, Ohio State should be in)

    Fresno State Bulldogs

    Current Power Rank: 44
    Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 112
    Games Remaining: 4 (with conference championship)
    Undefeated Chances: 62.1%
    Closest Remaining Game: MWC Championship

    Northern Illinois

    Current Power Rank: 58
    Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 121
    Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship)
    Undefeated Chances: 23.5%
    Closest Remaining Game: at Toledo (November 20)

    A few notes on the undefeated odds above:

    • Chances there are still seven undefeated FBS teams on December 8 (after conference title games): 0.17% (or 1-in-600)
    • Chances Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are undefeated on December 8: 1.15% (or 1-in-87)
    • Chances that Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State all have at least one loss on December 8: 5.8% (or 1-in-17)
    • Chances that there are no undefeated teams in FBS on December 8: 1.7% (or 1-in-59)
    • Estimated chances of a one-loss team in the BCS Championship Game: 35.7%
    • Chance of Alabama vs. Oregon (undefeated vs. undefeated) BCS Championship Game: 20.1% (or 1-in-5)
    • Chance of Alabama vs. Florida State (undefeated vs. undefeated) BCS Championship Game: 20.0% (or 1-in-5)
    • Chance of Oregon vs. Florida State (undefeated vs. undefeated) BCS Championship Game: 16.2% (or 1-in-6)
    NFL Odds
    • Chances Kansas City Chiefs end the season 16-0: 0.53% (or 1-in-190)
    • Chances Jacksonville Jaguars end the season 0-16: 22.3% (or 2-in-9)
    • Chances Tampa Bay Buccaneers end the season 0-16: 1.9% (or 1-in-51)
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 10)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    College Football Playoffs (10/31/13)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer and Halftime Picks can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    As the calendar flips to August, attention turns to football. NFL and College Football packages are now available with previews launching August 17th and August 24th respectively. Playable against-the-spread picks in the NFL last regular season went 110-85 (56% ATS), the fourth time in the last six seasons that the Predictalator picked every NFL game at a greater than 56% rate against-the-spread. Also, NFL Playoff picks are 44-20 (69% ATS) all-time on the site.

    In College Football, totals and the Lock of the Week have been consistently strong. Highlighted, "normal" or better (greater than 57% confidence to cover) over/under plays in college are 58% all-time and have been profitable in four of the previous six years. Meanwhile, Locks of the Week, the strongest against-the-spread pick each week in college football are 61-34 (65% ATS) all-time.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NFL Preview - In-Depth Analysis
    In the most likely Super Bowl, the Seattle Seahawks defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers. Check out in-depth analysis for every team in the league.

    Power Rankings - College Preview
    We played all 128 FBS teams against each other to come with the ultimate College Football Power Rankings as well as offensive and defensive, run and pass efficiency rankings.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com