Undefeated Update (11/4/2013)

Paul Bessire, General Manager, PredictionMachine.com

Monday, November 4 at 7:00 PM ET

Alabama, Oregon and Baylor were on a bye. Ohio State, Fresno State and Northern Illinois may as well have been (though Nevada made things closer against Fresno State than anticipated). And, this Thursday, we have two matchups of top ten BCS teams, including undefeated Baylor hosting Oklahoma and our top ranked team (again this week), Oregon, traveling to Stanford. With little happening (especially of a surprising nature) last week, we will give a quick update here on the undefeated odds and various scenarios for top teams in college football. After what should be an exciting overall week of action (Alabama also takes on LSU, which is #2 vs. #7 in our College Football Power Rankings). 

To see how we do this and how the numbers have changed from last week, check out last week's article on Undefeated Odds. Next week, with some likely shake up, we will start to look at outcomes of specific BCS National Championship games. 

College Football’s Undefeateds:

There are currently five undefeated teams in BCS-AQ – Alabama, Oregon, Baylor, Florida State and Ohio State. The five undefeated teams have 24 remaining regular season games combined and could play in five conference championship games. In all of those games, the current undefeated team is favored in our projections. Here are the chances that each current undefeated FBS team wins all of its remaining regular season (and conference championship) games:

Oregon Ducks

Current Power Rank: 1
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 61
Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship)
Undefeated Chances: 40.4% 
Closest Remaining Game: at Stanford (Thursday)
Teams that would be favored over Oregon on a neutral field: None
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 40.4% (if Oregon wins out, the Ducks should be in)

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current Power Rank: 2
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 46
Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship, though one of those games is against FCS Chattanooga)
Undefeated Chances: 49.7% 
Closest Remaining Game: SEC Championship Game (December 7)
Teams that would be favored over Alabama on a neutral field: Oregon
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 49.7% (if Alabama wins out, the Tide should be in)

Florida State Seminoles

Current Power Rank: 3
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 53
Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship)
Undefeated Chances: 53.0%
Closest Remaining Game: ACC Championship 
Teams that would be favored over Florida State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama 
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 40.2% (if Florida State wins out and either Alabama or Oregon loses, Florida State should be in)

Baylor Bears

Current Power Rank: 5
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 92 (yeah, that's about to change quickly)
Games Remaining: 5 (all against teams in top 40 of our Power Rankings)
Undefeated Chances: 23.5%
Closest Remaining Game: at Oklahoma State (November 23)
Teams that would be favored over Baylor on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 12.9% (if Baylor wins out and two teams from Alabama, Oregon and Florida State lose, Baylor should be in)

Ohio State Buckeyes 

Current Power Rank: 6
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 80
Games Remaining: 4 (with conference championship, the next two of those are 90%+ victories for Ohio State)
Undefeated Chances: 45.9% 
Closest Remaining Game: B1G Championship Game
Teams that would be favored over Ohio State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State, Texas A&M, Baylor 
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 21.1% (if Ohio State wins out and three teams from Alabama, Oregon, Baylor and Florida State lose, Ohio State should be in)

Fresno State Bulldogs

Current Power Rank: 44
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 112
Games Remaining: 4 (with conference championship)
Undefeated Chances: 62.1%
Closest Remaining Game: MWC Championship

Northern Illinois

Current Power Rank: 58
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 121
Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship)
Undefeated Chances: 23.5%
Closest Remaining Game: at Toledo (November 20)

A few notes on the undefeated odds above:

  • Chances there are still seven undefeated FBS teams on December 8 (after conference title games): 0.17% (or 1-in-600)
  • Chances Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are undefeated on December 8: 1.15% (or 1-in-87)
  • Chances that Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State all have at least one loss on December 8: 5.8% (or 1-in-17)
  • Chances that there are no undefeated teams in FBS on December 8: 1.7% (or 1-in-59)
  • Estimated chances of a one-loss team in the BCS Championship Game: 35.7%
  • Chance of Alabama vs. Oregon (undefeated vs. undefeated) BCS Championship Game: 20.1% (or 1-in-5)
  • Chance of Alabama vs. Florida State (undefeated vs. undefeated) BCS Championship Game: 20.0% (or 1-in-5)
  • Chance of Oregon vs. Florida State (undefeated vs. undefeated) BCS Championship Game: 16.2% (or 1-in-6)
NFL Odds
  • Chances Kansas City Chiefs end the season 16-0: 0.53% (or 1-in-190)
  • Chances Jacksonville Jaguars end the season 0-16: 22.3% (or 2-in-9)
  • Chances Tampa Bay Buccaneers end the season 0-16: 1.9% (or 1-in-51)

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