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    World Cup Odds (07/02/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    2014 World Cup Quarterfinals – updated odds to win. Plus Round of 16 recap and Quarterfinal preview. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    The Round of 16 was all drama. No team scored more than two goals and more than half of the games went to extra time with Brazil and Costa Rica advancing via penalties.

    World Cup Round of 16 Results

    Date Winner Score Loser
    June 28 Brazil 1-1 (3-2 penalty) Chile
    June 28 Colombia 2-0 Uruguay
    June 29 Netherlands 2-1 Mexico
    June 29 Costa Rica 1-1 (5-3 penalty) Greece
    June 30 France 2-0 Nigeria
    June 30 Germany 2-1 (extra time) Algeria
    July 1 Argentina 1-0 (extra time) Switzerland
    July 1 Belgium 2-1 (extra time) United States

    Quarterfinal Preview

    Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Netherlands are favored to advance to the semifinals. Each of these teams has weaknesses and all of them have looked beatable at different times in this tournament.

    As we cautioned before the Round of 16, since 1986, no team has won the World Cup with pre-tournament odds higher than 10/1. Brazil, Germany and Argentina are three of the four teams that started with pre-tournament odds less than 10/1.

    According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Brazil, Germany and Argentina combine to win the World Cup 71 percent of the time.

    Updated Odds to win the World Cup

    Team Pre-Tournament Round of 16 Quaterfinals
    Brazil 3/1 3/1 11/4
    Germany 11/2 4/1 7/2
    Argentina 4/1 4/1 4/1
    Netherlands 25/1 7/1 9/2
    France 25/1 8/1 7/1
    Colombia 33/1 16/1 11/1
    Belgium 18/1 20/1 12/1
    Costa Rica 1000/1 40/1 40/1

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