Using our Super Bowl prop projections
, we'll review our best prop bets for Super Bowl LI. After 50,000 simulations, we anticipate the Patriots to win by an average margin of three points with an average final score of 28.3 to 25.2.
1. Tom Brady Passing Yards (Line: 310.5, Projected: 265.1)
Tom Brady's passing yardage prop is too high. Simply put, Brady has only thrown for more than 310 yards six times this season. Though the Falcons have given up some points on defense, they still rank 13th in yards per pass attempt against and sixth in yards per catch. Thus, they have taken the big play away from most teams. The Falcons rushing defense is where they've struggled where they rank 28th in yards per rushing attempt. The Patriots are also likely to be leading, as they are favored in the game, which should lead to less passing opportunities.
2. Matt Ryan Passing Yards (Line: 310.5, Projected: 262.4)
We have a similar projection for Matt Ryan's anticipated passing yardage. Ryan has been incredible all season but the long, high play Patriots drives should hurt his chances in going over his passing yardage total. Ryan has thrown over 310 yards in eight of twenty games this season and the Patriots only allow 237.9 passing yards per game. New England's defense also rank eighth in passing yards per attempt and 11th in completion percentage.
3. LeGarrette Blount Rushing Yards (Line: 57.5, Projected: 65.1)
The method behind Blount's rushing yards over projection are outlined above. The Falcons passing defense and pass rush has been better than depicted. However, their rushing defense has been quite poor. Though teams tend to attack the Falcons through the air, the Patriots coaching staff seems to find the biggest weakness and exploit it. We also anticipate the Patriots to be leading more often than trailing; thus, Blount, their most reliable ball carrier, should get the workload in those situations.