Sweet Bracket Odds (03/24/14)

John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
After a thrilling first weekend, which teams odds to win March Madness improved the most heading into the Sweet 16?


 
There were 13 upsets (by seed) in the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Gone from the field are Wichita State, Duke, Kansas, Villanova, Syracuse, and Creighton. With so many of the favorites to reach the Final Four no longer dancing, how does this impact the remaining team’s odds to win the National Championship?
 
To see odds for each team to reach the Final Four and win the title, check out our updated Bracket Odds.
 
Contenders
 
Florida
The Gators are in the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive season. The South Region broke about as well as you could hope if you are a Florida fan. Little stands in the way of a Final Four appearance with the exodus of Kansas and Syracuse (both top 20 programs in our Power Rankings).
 
Odds to win the title before the Tournament: 10.8%
Odds to win the title in the Sweet 16: 19.5%
 
Louisville
The Cardinals were under-seeded and got one of the most difficult draws being placed in the Midwest. But with Wichita State and Duke both watching from home, the Group of Death does not seem so scary.
 
Odds to win the title before the Tournament: 8.8%
Odds to win the title in the Sweet 16: 19.4%
 
Sleepers
 
Baylor
The Bears were one of the best three point shooting teams in the country, connecting on nearly 42% of their attempts from behind the arc. Baylor is a frightening team when they get it going from long range – just ask Creighton.
 
Odds to win the title before the Tournament: 1.1%
Odds to win the title in the Sweet 16: 4.6%
 
Kentucky
The Wildcats ended Wichita States perfect season and if Kentucky didn’t have to face Louisville in the Sweet 16, their odds to win it all would be greatly improved. Still, Kentucky is now more than twice as likely to win it all than before the tournament started.
 
Odds to win the title before the Tournament: 0.9%
Odds to win the title in the Sweet 16: 2.0%
 
Cinderellas
 
Stanford
There were 22 teams that had at least a 1% chance of winning the tournament before the madness started but the Cardinal were not one of those teams. Two upsets later and Stanford is in the Sweet Sixteen.
 
Odds to win the title before the Tournament: 0.3%
Odds to win the title in the Sweet 16: 1.2%
 
Tennessee
The Vols are now the third team to play in the First Four to reach the Sweet 16. Tennessee is a balanced team that is playing their best basketball of the season.
 
Odds to win the title before the Tournament: 0.7%
Odds to win the title in the Sweet 16: 1.6%
 
Dayton
The Flyers started the madness upsetting Ohio State in the first game of the tournament. Dayton isn’t going to win it all but no one expected them to reach the Sweet 16 either.
 
Odds to win the title before the Tournament: 0.2%
Odds to win the title in the Sweet 16: 0.8%
 
Below are the changes in odds for each team to win the NCAA Tournament.

Team Original Odds Updated Odds Diff.
 Florida 10.8% 19.5% 8.7%
 Louisville 8.8% 19.4% 10.6%
 Michigan St. 8.9% 14.0% 5.1%
 Michigan 5.5% 8.5% 3.0%
 UCLA 2.2% 6.0% 3.8%
 Virginia 7.7% 5.8% -1.9%
 Arizona 3.9% 5.7% 1.8%
 Wisconsin 3.5% 5.2% 1.7%
 Baylor 1.1% 4.6% 3.5%
 Iowa St. 1.7% 2.8% 1.1%
 Kentucky 0.9% 2.0% 1.1%
 Tennessee 0.7% 1.6% 0.9%
 San Diego St. 1.3% 1.6% 0.3%
 UCONN 0.8% 1.4% 0.6%
 Stanford 0.3% 1.2% 0.9%
 Dayton 0.2% 0.8% 0.6%


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