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    Sweet 16 Odds (03/25/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Sweet Sixteen value bets based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the 2014 NCAA Tournament bracket. Odds courtesy of Bovada.LV.

    The first weekend did not disappoint, top seeds Wichita State, Kansas, Villanova, Duke, Syracuse, and Creighton were knocked out. There is a number of Cinderellas (No. 10 Stanford, No. 11 Dayton, No. 11 Tennessee) looking to dance to the Final Four. While your bracket may have been busted, we were able to navigate a wild first weekend – “normal” or better play are now 42-24 (64% ATS) and the top ATS play each day has gone 14-6 (70% ATS) over the first week of the tournament in the last five years
    For the next round of picks, click here.
    Below we look for value in the odds to win the 2014 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship as well as the odds to win each region. We utilize our updated Bracket Odds to find the likelihood of a given team cutting down the nets.
    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the title and compare that to our projected odds for a championship. For example, Michigan is listed at 16/1 to win, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Wolverines they would need to win the title 5.9% (which is 1/(1+16)) of the time. We project the Michigan to win it all 8.5%, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 16/1 odds.
    National Championship Value Bets
    Louisville Cardinals
    Odds: 5/1, Odds Need: 16.7%
    Cardinals win title 19.4% of the time
    The defending champs are headed to the Sweet 16 for the third straight season. The Cardinals first two games in the tournament have been uninspiring – narrowly defeating Manhattan and winning an ugly game against St. Louis. But doubting Louisville now would be silly. Rick Pitino is a perfect 11-0 all-time in the Sweet 16.
    Additional Value Bet – Michigan at 16/1 odds
    Below are the odds for each remaining team to win the title.

    Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
     Florida 10/3 23.1% 19.5%
     Louisville 5/1 16.7% 19.4%
     Michigan St. 11/2 15.4% 14.0%
     Michigan 16/1 5.9% 8.5%
     UCLA 14/1 6.7% 6.0%
     Virginia 9/1 10.0% 5.8%
     Arizona 6/1 14.3% 5.7%
     Wisconsin 16/1 5.9% 5.2%
     Baylor 20/1 4.8% 4.6%
     Iowa St. 20/1 4.8% 2.8%
     Kentucky 16/1 5.9% 2.0%
     San Diego St. 33/1 2.9% 1.6%
     Tennessee 28/1 3.4% 1.6%
     UCONN 28/1 3.4% 1.4%
     Stanford 50/1 2.0% 1.2%
     Dayton 100/1 1.0% 0.8%
    Regional Value Bets
    Baylor Bears
    Odds: 5/1, Odds Need: 16.7%
    Bears win the region 25.9% of the time
    The Bears are a dangerous team, not only long and athletic but lethal from behind the arc. For Baylor, winners of twelve of their last fourteen games, it comes down to three-point shooting. Can the Big 12 runner-up shoot its way to the Final Four?
    Michigan State Spartans
    Odds: 3/2, Odds Need: 40.0%
    Spartans win the region 43.1% of the time
    The Spartans are just one of three teams left in the tournament that ranks in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency – Florida and Louisville are the other two. It is rare for a 4-seed to be favored over every opponent on the way to a Final Four but Michigan State is the best team in the East Region.
    Additional Value Bet – Michigan, Wisconsin, and UCLA
    Below are the odds for each remaining team to win their region. 

    Region Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    South  Florida 2/3 60.0% 51.7%
    South  UCLA 3/1 25.0% 25.6%
    South  Dayton 9/1 10.0% 9.9%
    South  Stanford 5/1 16.7% 12.8%
    East  Virginia 2/1 33.3% 25.4%
    East  Michigan St. 3/2 40.0% 43.1%
    East  Iowa St. 4/1 20.0% 18.9%
    East  UCONN 9/2 18.2% 12.5%
    West  Arizona 1/1 50.0% 31.3%
    West  San Diego St. 5/1 16.7% 15.2%
    West  Baylor 5/1 16.7% 25.9%
    West  Wisconsin 11/4 26.7% 27.6%
    Midwest  Kentucky 4/1 20.0% 12.0%
    Midwest  Louisville 11/10 47.6% 47.5%
    Midwest  Tennessee 4/1 20.0% 11.3%
    Midwest  Michigan 7/2 22.2% 29.2%

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    GameChangers (04/08/14)
    Sweet Bracket Odds (03/24/14)
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