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    Super Bowl XLVIII Props Picks

    Last Updated: 1/27/2014 at 8:00 PM ET
    Super Bowl XLVIII: Predictalator Picks  In-Depth Analysis
    Projected Super Bowl XLVIII Boxscore  Prop Picks  Super Bowl Podcast
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    Super Bowl Props Picks

    In the picks below, all projected stats are averages from the 50,000 games played of Super Bowl XLVIII. The Pick and Calc represent the side we are choosing and the percentage of games in which the prop picked covers the noted line. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. Typically, we assume all plays to be -110, for which anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. However, for odds that are not -110, we have indicated whether the pick is playable (NP means "No Pick") at all and what the corresponding confidence in that pick equates to. Due to the built in "vig or "juice" from the lines, which can be adjusted using the Play Value Calculator, some props may not have a playable pick. Props picks will be updated as needed due to injury or other depth chart information.

    Just about every prop we could find can be evaluated from the information above and/or within the projected boxscore and/or using the Customizable Predictalator. However, if there are any other prop predictions that you would like to see for the Super Bowl, please let us know by submitting a Support Contact. Thanks!

    Seattle Quarterback

    Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
    Russell Wilson Pass Yds 199.5 221.8 OVER (57.2%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson Comp. 17.5 16.5 UNDER (52.3%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson Att. 26.5 27.5 OVER (52.4%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson TDs Thrown 1.5 (+135/-165) 1.4 OVER (45.9%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson TDs Thrown 0 (+275) 1.4 0, (23.7%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson TDs Thrown 1 (+150) 1.4 1, (34.2%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson TDs Thrown 2 (+225) 1.4 2, (24.8%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson TDs Thrown 3 (+600) 1.4 3, (12.1%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson TDs Thrown 4+ (+1500) 1.4 4+, (5.2%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson INT 0.5 (-150/+120) 0.6 UNDER (47.2%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson Rushes 6.5 (EV/-130) 5.7 UNDER (64.1%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson Rush Yards 30.5 27.8 UNDER (53.6%) Calc -->
    Russell Wilson Rushing TD Yes (+250)/No (-325) 0.1 NO, 78.3% Calc -->

    Denver Quarterback
    Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
    Peyton Manning Pass Yds 290.5 241.3 UNDER (63.9%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning Comp. 26.5 22.7 UNDER (60.1%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning Att. 38.5 36.4 UNDER (53.4%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning TDs Thrown 2.5 1.9 UNDER (63.6%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning TDs Thrown 0 (+1000) 1.9 0, (9.1%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning TDs Thrown 1 (+350) 1.9 1, (28.7%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning TDs Thrown 2 (+200) 1.9 2, (26.1%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning TDs Thrown 3 (+250) 1.9 3, (18.0%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning TDs Thrown 4+ (+350) 1.9 4+, (18.1%) Calc -->
    Peyton Manning INT 0.5 (-180/+150) 1.1 OVER (66.7%) Calc -->

    Seattle Running Backs

    Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
    Marshawn Lynch Rush Yds 87.5 83.6 UNDER (51.2%) Calc -->
    Marshawn Lynch Rushes 21.5 22.9 OVER (52.5%) Calc -->
    Marshawn Lynch Rec Yds 15.5 18.6 OVER (54.7%) Calc -->
    Marshawn Lynch Recs 2 (110/-140) 2.1 OVER (37.3%) Calc -->
    Marshawn Lynch TDs 0.5 (-165/+135) 1.0 OVER (60.6%) Calc -->
    Robert Turbin Rush Yds 10.5 6.2 UNDER (61.5%) Calc -->

    Denver Running Backs

    Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
    Knowshon Moreno Rush Yds 65.5 63.9 UNDER (53.5%) Calc -->
    Knowshon Moreno Rushes 15.5 (-110/-110) 15.1 OVER (50.5%) Calc -->
    Knowshon Moreno Rec Yds 25.5 14.4 UNDER (64.3%) Calc -->
    Knowshon Moreno Recs 3 1.7 UNDER (58.6%) Calc -->
    Knowshon Moreno TDs 0.5 (-130/EV) 0.5 UNDER (55.3%) Calc -->
    Montee Ball Rush Yds 32.5 (-110/-110) 37.8 OVER (59.3%) Calc -->
    Montee Ball Rushes 8.5 8.7 OVER (51.2%) Calc -->
    Montee Ball TDs 0.5 (+250/-325) 0.3 UNDER (75.8%) Calc -->

    Seattle Receivers/Tight Ends

    Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
    Golden Tate Rec Yds 45.5 51.1 OVER (53.6%) Calc -->
    Golden Tate Recs 4 (EV/-130) 3.4 OVER (44.8%) Calc -->
    Golden Tate TDs 0.5 (+175/-215) 0.3 UNDER (67.7%) Calc -->
    Doug Baldwin Rec Yds 40.5 48.7 OVER (59.9%) Calc -->
    Doug Baldwin Recs 3.5 (EV/-130) 3.1 UNDER (60.6%) Calc -->
    Doug Baldwin TDs 0.5 (+215/-275) 0.3 OVER (29.5%) Calc -->
    Percy Harvin Rec Yds 40.5 36.9 UNDER (55.0%) Calc -->
    Percy Harvin Recs 4 2.9 UNDER (55.5%) Calc -->
    Percy Harvin TDs 0.5 (+160/-200) 0.2 UNDER (68.3%) Calc -->

    Denver Receivers/Tight Ends

    Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
    Demaryius Thomas Rec Yds 75.5 62.9 UNDER (62.9%) Calc -->
    Demaryius Thomas Recs 5 (-130/EV) 4.7 UNDER (51.2%) Calc -->
    Demaryius Thomas TDs 0.5 (-130/EV) 0.5 UNDER (53.6%) Calc -->
    Wes Welker Rec Yds 57.5 42.8 UNDER (59.4%) Calc -->
    Wes Welker Recs 5.5 4.8 UNDER (52.0%) Calc -->
    Wes Welker TDs 0.5 (-130/EV) 0.5 UNDER (54.2%) Calc -->
    Eric Decker Rec Yds 57.5 52 UNDER (54.5%) Calc -->
    Eric Decker Recs 4.5 (EV/-130) 4.0 OVER (49.7%) Calc -->
    Eric Decker TDs 0.5 (+135/-165) 0.4 OVER (38.5%) Calc -->
    Julius Thomas Rec Yds 55.5 47.9 UNDER (56.9%) Calc -->
    Julius Thomas Recs 5 (EV/-130) 4.6 OVER (48.5%) Calc -->
    Julius Thomas TDs 0.5 (-130/EV) 0.4 UNDER (59.8%) Calc -->

    Kickers

    Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
    Steven Hauschka Points 9 8.8 UNDER (51.4%) Calc -->
    Matt Prater Points 9 5.9 UNDER (66.4%) Calc -->

    MVP Odds

    Player Team MVP Chance MVP Line Pick/Calc
    Peyton Manning DEN 8/5 38.9% Weak
    Russell Wilson SEA 13/4 23.5% NP
    Marshawn Lynch SEA 6/1 16.6% Weak
    Richard Sherman SEA 16/1 4.1% NP
    Golden Tate SEA 33/1 3.0% Weak
    Percy Harvin SEA 16/1 2.0% NP
    Doug Baldwin SEA 40/1 1.8% NP
    Knowshon Moreno DEN 18/1 1.6% NP
    Field   20/1 1.3% NP
    Demaryius Thomas DEN 16/1 1.3% NP
    Eric Decker DEN 20/1 0.8% NP
    Wes Welker DEN 16/1 0.8% NP
    Earl Thomas SEA 33.1 0.7% NP
    Danny Trevathan DEN 66/1 0.7% NP
    Kam Chancellor SEA 66/1 0.6% NP
    Michael Bennett SEA 100/1 0.6% NP
    Steven Hauschka SEA 100/1 0.5% NP
    Julius Thomas DEN 25/1 0.4% NP
    Montee Ball DEN 50/1 0.3% NP
    Zach Miller SEA 75/1 0.2% NP
    Duke Ihenacho DEN 100/1 0.1% NP
    Champ Bailey DEN 66/1 0.1% NP
    Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie DEN 50/1 0.1% NP
    Matt Prater DEN 100/1 0.1% NP

    Misc. Game Props 

    Type Line Proj. Pick/Calc
    Longest FGM (Yds) 44.5 44.2 UNDR (50.3%)
    Longest TD (Yds) 42.5 38.9 Yds UNDER (57.3%)
    Shortest TD 1.5 Yds (-110/-110) 1.6 Yds OVER (53.4%)
    Scores 1st SEA (-105) 51.9% SF (51.9%)
    Team Scores 1st Wins No (+135) 47.3% NO (47.3%)
    Safety No (-900) 90.3% NO 90.3%
    OT NO (-1000) 90.4% NO 90.4%
    3 Unanswered Scores Yes (-175) 63.6% YES 63.6%
    Total Sacks UNDER 4.5 60.8% UNDER 60.8%

    Average Points by Quarter

    Team 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr/OT
    Seattle 4.4 7.0 5.1 7.3
    Denver 4.3 6.0 4.8 6.4

    Entertainment Props (lines provided by Bovada.lv)

    Type Line Proj. Pick/Calc
    National Anthem 2:25 2:19 UNDER(53.5%)
    Coin Flip Even 50.0% (25,002 Heads) Tails(50.0%)
    Renee Fleming Gloves? Yes (-200)/No (+150) No (45%) NO (45.0%)
    Omaha 27.5 (-110/-110) 32.6 (OVER 55.9%) OVER (55.9%)
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