Super Bowl XLVII Props Picks: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers from PredictionMachine.com

Super Bowl XLVII: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
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PredictionMachine.com is proud to present our first major contest - Props Pick'em. An innovative and FREE contest, Props Pick'em asks you to select answers to 47 props for the upcoming NFL title game in New Orleans. The top 50 point scorers will share in the prize pool of $7,000 in site credits, including $2,000 to the overall contest winner.

Super Bowl Props Picks

In the picks below, all projected stats are averages from the 50,000 games played of Super Bowl XLVII. The Pick and Calc represent the side we are choosing and the percentage of games in which the prop picked covers the noted line. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. Typically, we assume all plays to be -110, for which anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. However, for odds that are not -110, we have indicated whether the pick is playable (NP means "No Pick") at all and what the corresponding confidence in that pick equates to. Due to the built in "vig or "juice" from the lines, which can be adjusted using the Play Value Calculator, some props may not have a playable pick. Props picks will be updated as needed due to injury or other depth chart information.

Just about every prop we could find can be evaluated from the information above and/or within the projected boxscore and/or using the Customizable Predictalator. However, if there are any other prop predictions that you would like to see for the Super Bowl, please let us know by submitting a Support Contact. Thanks!

Props Package Picks

Baltimore Quarterback

Player	Stat	Line	Proj.	Pick	Calc
Joe Flacco	Pass Yds	250 (-110/-110)	215.7	UNDER (58.4%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	Comp.	20.5 (-110/-110)	20.9	UNDER (51.7%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	Att.	34.5 (-110/-110)	35.3	OVER (50.7%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	TDs Thrown	1.5 (-130/EVEN)	1.3	UNDER (53.8%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	TDs Thrown	0 (+300)	1.3	0, (18.9%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	TDs Thrown	1 (+175)	1.3	1, (35.9%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	TDs Thrown	2 (+250)	1.3	2, (25.5%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	TDs Thrown	3 (+450)	1.3	3, (12.6%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	TDs Thrown	4+ (+400)	1.3	4+, (7.1%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	INT	0.5 (-165/+135)	0.8	UNDER (47.2%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	Rushes	2.0 (-110/-110)	2.0	UNDER (50.2%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	Rush Yards	2.5 (-110/-110)	0.7	UNDER (58.8%)	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	4th QTR TD	Yes (+125)/No (-155)	0.5	NO, 63.0%	Calc -->

San Francisco Quarterback

Player	Stat	Line	Proj.	Pick	Calc
Colin Kaepernick	Pass Yds	232.5 (-110/-110)	231.6	UNDER (50.3%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	Comp.	17.5 (-110/-110)	17.2	UNDER (50.6%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	Att.	27.5 (-110/-110)	28.8	UNDER (52.7%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	TDs Thrown	1.5 (+110/-140)	1.6	OVER (53.0%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	TDs Thrown	0 (+200)	1.6	0, (18.1%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	TDs Thrown	1 (+180)	1.6	1, (30.5%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	TDs Thrown	2 (+275)	1.6	2, (26.5%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	TDs Thrown	3 (+600)	1.6	3, (13.8%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	TDs Thrown	4+ (+1000)	1.6	4+, (11.1%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	INT	0.5 (-140/+110)	0.8	OVER (55.4%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	Rushes	7.5 (-110/-110)	5.7	UNDER (62.8%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	Rush Yards	50.5 (-110/-110)	38	UNDER (62.0%)	Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick	Rush TD	Yes (+110)/No (-140)	0.5	NO, 61.8%	Calc -->

Baltimore Running Backs

Player	Stat	Line	Proj.	Pick	Calc
Ray Rice	Rush Yds	69.5 (-110/-110)	64.2	UNDER (55.9%)	Calc -->
Ray Rice	Rushes	18.5 (-110/-110)	17.6	UNDER (54.1%)	Calc -->
Ray Rice	Rec Yds	30.5 (-110/-110)	25.9	UNDER (58.8%)	Calc -->
Ray Rice	Recs	3.5 (-110/-110)	3.9	OVER (55.3%)	Calc -->
Ray Rice	TDs	0.5 (+110/-140)	0.8	OVER (49.1%)	Calc -->
Bernard Pierce	Rush Yds	32.5 (-110/-110)	33.8	OVER (50.5%)	Calc -->
Bernard Pierce	Receptions	0.5 (-110/-110)	0.2	UNDER (59.6%)	Calc -->
Bernard Pierce	TDs	0.5 (+400/-600)	0.1	UNDER (86.5%)	Calc -->

San Francisco Running Backs

Player	Stat	Line	Proj.	Pick	Calc
Frank Gore	Rush Yds	82.5 (-110/-110)	89.2	OVER (53.5%)	Calc -->
Frank Gore	Rushes	20.5 (-110/-110)	18.8	UNDER (51.8%)	Calc -->
Frank Gore	Rec Yds	17.5 (-110/-110)	13.1	UNDER (56.8%)	Calc -->
Frank Gore	Recs	1.5 (-110/-110)	1.6	UNDER (50.6%)	Calc -->
Frank Gore	TDs	0.5 (-140/+110)	0.9	OVER (60.6%)	Calc -->
LaMichael James	Rush Yds	25.5 (-110/-110)	30.4	OVER (58.1%)	Calc -->
LaMichael James	Rec. Yds	9.5 (-110/-110)	9.1	UNDER (53.2%)	Calc -->
LaMichael James	TDs	0.5 (+300/-400)	0.3	OVER (25.7%)	Calc -->

Baltimore Receivers/Tight Ends

Player	Stat	Line	Proj.	Pick	Calc
Anquan Boldin	Rec Yds	67.5 (-110/-110)	58.9	UNDER (59.0%)	Calc -->
Anquan Boldin	Recs	4.5 (-150/+120)	4.4	UNDER (49.1%)	Calc -->
Anquan Boldin	TDs	0.5 (+135/-165)	0.3	UNDER (67.2%)	Calc -->
Torrey Smith	Rec Yds	65.5 (-110/-110)	55.8	UNDER (59.4%)	Calc -->
Torrey Smith	Recs	3.5 (-140/+110)	4.1	OVER (54.4%)	Calc -->
Torrey Smith	TDs	0.5 (+135/-165)	0.4	OVER (42.6%)	Calc -->
Dennis Pitta	Rec Yds	45.5 (-110/-110)	38.4	UNDER (56.6%)	Calc -->
Dennis Pitta	Recs	4 (-110/-110)	4.1	OVER (55.5%)	Calc -->
Dennis Pitta	TDs	0.5 (+175/-215)	0.4	OVER (38.3%)	Calc -->

San Francisco Receivers/Tight Ends

Player	Stat	Line	Proj.	Pick	Calc
Michael Crabtree	Rec Yds	77.5 (-110/-110)	77.3	OVER (50.1%)	Calc -->
Michael Crabtree	Recs	6 (-110/-110)	5.8	OVER (51.2%)	Calc -->
Michael Crabtree	TDs	0.5 (-115/-115)	0.7	UNDER (54.7%)	Calc -->
Randy Moss	Rec Yds	35.5 (-110/-110)	28.8	UNDER (61.7%)	Calc -->
Randy Moss	Recs	2.5 (-110/-110)	1.7	UNDER (60.6%)	Calc -->
Randy Moss	TDs	0.5 (+240/-300)	0.2	UNDER (77.6%)	Calc -->
Vernon Davis	Rec Yds	50.5 (-110/-110)	46.3	UNDER (53.1%)	Calc -->
Vernon Davis	Recs	3.5 (-140/+110)	3.2	UNDER (52.4%)	Calc -->
Vernon Davis	TDs	0.5 (+110/-140)	0.4	UNDER (65.0%)	Calc -->
Delanie Walker	Rec Yds	20.5 (-110/-110)	37.4	OVER (64.3%)	Calc -->
Delanie Walker	Recs	1.5 (-110/-110)	2.2	OVER (56.4%)	Calc -->

Kickers

Player	Stat	Line	Proj.	Pick	Calc
David Akers	Points	7.5 (-110/-110)	8.9	OVER (60.2%)	Calc -->
David Akers	FGM	1.5 (-110/-110)	2.1	OVER (62.2%)	Calc -->
Justin Tucker	Points	7.5 (Even/-120)	7.1	UNDER (53.8%)	Calc -->
Justin Tucker	FGM	1.5 (-110/-110)	1.6	OVER (51.9%)	Calc -->

MVP Odds

Player	Team	MVP Chance	MVP Line	Pick/Calc
Colin Kaepernick	SF	37.4%	7/4	Calc -->
Joe Flacco	BAL	20.0%	11/4	NP
Frank Gore	SF	8.0%	7/1	NP
Michael Crabtree	SF	6.9%	14/1	Calc -->
Ray Lewis	BAL	6.5%	7/1	NP
Ray Rice	BAL	4.2%	10/1	NP
Vernon Davis	SF	3.2%	18/1	NP
Torrey Smith	BAL	1.8%	20/1	NP
Field	N/A	1.4%	22/1	NP
LaMichael James	SF	1.4%	66/1	NP
Anquan Boldin	BAL	1.4%	17/1	NP
Delanie Walker	SF	1.2%	100/1	Calc -->
Randy Moss	SF	1.1%	40/1	NP
Dennis Pitta	BAL	0.8%	40/1	NP
Patrick Willis	SF	0.8%	50/1	NP
Aldon Smith	SF	0.8%	40/1	NP
Ted Ginn	SF	0.7%	75/1	NP
NaVorro Bowman	SF	0.7%	66/1	NP
Dashon Goldson	SF	0.6%	66/1	NP
Terrell Suggs	BAL	0.4%	50/1	NP
Ed Reed	BAL	0.3%	33/1	NP
Bernard Pierce	BAL	0.2%	75/1	NP
David Akers	SF	0.0%	66/1	NP
Justin Tucker	BAL	0.0%	75/1	NP
Alex Smith	SF	0.0%	100/1	NP

Misc. Game Props

Type	Line	Proj.	Pick/Calc
Longest FGM (Yds)	44.5 (-110/-110)	43.2	UNDR (53.3%)
Longest FGM (Team)	BAL (-130)	BAL (59.7%)	BAL (59.7%)
Longest TD (Yds)	46.5 Yds (-115/-115)	45.9 Yds	UNDER (51.8%)
Longest TD (Team)	SF (-130)	SF (57.5%)	SF (57.5%)
Shortest TD	1.5 Yds (-110/-110)	1.9 Yds	OVER (53.4%)
Scores 1st	SF (-130)	55.2%	SF (55.2%)
Team Scores 1st Wins	No (+150)	48.0%	NO (48.0%)
Safety	No (-1000)	91.3%	NO 91.3%
OT	NO (-1000)	92.4%	NO 92.4%
3 Unanswered Scores	Yes (-180)	62.6%	YES 62.6%
Total Sacks	UNDER 4.5 (-110)	55.8%	UNDER 55.8%

Average Points by Quarter

Team	1st Qtr	2nd Qtr	3rd Qtr	4th Qtr/OT
San Francisco	4.7	8.4	6.4	9.1
Baltimore	4.7	4.7	5.6	6.3

Entertainment Props (lines provided by Bovada.lv)

Type	Line	Proj.	Pick/Calc
National Anthem	2:15	2:06	UNDER(57.2%)
Coin Flip	Even	50.0% (25,001 Tails)	Tails(50.0%)
Beyonce Top	Gold (+275)	Gold (33.3%)	Gold (33.3%)
Beyonce Hair	Curly (Even)	Curly (55.0%)	CURLY (55.0%)
Jay-Z Shown	0.5 (-120/-120)	0.7	OVR (58.2%)
Postgame Handshake	7.5 (-120/-120)	5.8	UNDR (61.5%)

Play Value Calculator
Pick Win %:
Normal Play*:
Odds:
Other Plays Today:		Advanced
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Win% #2:	Clear
Win% #3:	Clear
Win% #4:	Clear
Win% #5:	Clear
Win% #6:	Clear
Win% #7:	Clear
Win% #8:	Clear
Win% #9:	Clear
Win% #10:	Clear
Win% #11:	Clear
Win% #12:	Clear
Win% #13:	Clear
Win% #14:	Clear
Win% #15:	Clear
Win% #16:	Clear
Win% #17:	Clear
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Parlay Calculator
Plays in Parlay:
Pick Win% #1:		Clear
Pick Win% #2:		Clear
Pick Win% #3:		Clear
Pick Win% #4:		Clear
Pick Win% #5:		Clear
Pick Win% #6:		Clear
Pick Win% #7:		Clear
Pick Win% #8:		Clear
Pick Win% #9:		Clear
Pick Win% #10:		Clear
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Super Bowl XLVII Props Picks

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