New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    No Playoffs for Steelers (07/21/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Bold Predictions – an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.

    Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th – 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.

    Previous Articles: Hill leads NFL in rushing, Luck highest scorer in fantasy, Landry over 100 receptions, Peterson is No. 1 running back, Mariota over Winston, New Playoff Teams

    Prediction: Steelers, Lions and Cardinals will miss the playoffs

    According to NFL Media research, at least four new teams have made the playoffs every year since the NFL adopted the 12-team format back in 1990. Last season was no different as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys all reached the postseason after missing the playoffs in 2013. All of these teams were beneficiaries of some form of luck but unlike a season ago, the Steelers, Lions and Cardinals aren't as likely to get the same breaks. We expect regression to the mean and for those three franchises to miss the playoffs.

    One way to tell whether a team was lucky or not is to compare their actual win-loss record to what their expected win-loss record was based on Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation, which examines the number of points a team scores and the points it allows. By this metric, the Steelers (1.4 wins), Lions (1.8 wins) and Cardinals (2.7 wins) all performed better than one would expect based on point differential. Arizona outscored opponents by eleven points, indicative of an 8-8 team, but defied the odds and won 11 games.

    Another common form of luck is record in one-score games. A season can swing on how many games a team wins that were decided by seven points or fewer. All three teams had winning records in such games combining to go 14-5 in games decided by one touchdown or less last season. Of course, that type of performance isn't consistent from year to year. The Lions were 6-1 in one score games last season but a dreadful 6-14 in the previous two campaigns.

    Luck takes all forms including the ever-fickle turnover. Randomness is common in turnover differential and teams rarely maintain a good (or bad) performance, as teams tend to regress to the mean over time. The Chiefs were +18 (made the playoffs) in 2013 but were -9 (missed the playoffs) in 2014. The Cardinals were +8 and the Lions were +7, both are likely to regress in 2015. The Steelers weren't all that fortunate with turnovers but they were lucky to be one of just three teams in the league that didn't allow any points to be scored off of turnovers.

    Luck isn't the only reason these teams will miss the playoffs but it will be a contributing factor. Pittsburgh is projected to finish third in the division with a 7.4-8.6 record (31.5 percent chance to make the playoffs). Detroit has a 21.6 percent chance to reach the postseason, but is projected to finish third in the NFC North with a 7.3-8.7 record. Arizona is also projected to finish third in its division with a 7.3-8.7 record and has only a 20.5 percent chance to return to postseason play.

    Print This Article
    Team Rankings (07/29/15)
    Offensive Lines Matter (07/24/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    07/27/2017 Highlight: Football season is slowly approaching and as we use our ResultsFinder tool to look back on previous seasons, we can see that ATS picks in the NFL regular season have topped 56% ATS four times in seven years, and have been profitable in all but one season on the site. NFL Playoff picks are also a stellar 50-25 (67% ATS) in our history.

    In college football, "normal" or better totals are 58% all-time and have been profitable in five of the previous seven years. Meanwhile, our strongest ATS pick each week in college football is 69-40 (63% ATS) all-time. With college football season win totals being posted this week, we can also note that last season, playable win total picks in went 28-19 (60% O/U) to turn a profit of $899 for a normal $50 player using our play value recommendations.

    MLB season is winding down but that hasn't stopped our models from generating insane profits. Our baseball engine is 130-109 picking baseball sides in the month of July, generating $822 in profits for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides (stronger plays) are a perfect 4-0 in July, producing $218 in profits on those plays alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    NFL Preview - In-Depth Analysis
    In the most likely Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks. Check out in-depth analysis for every team in the league.

    College Win Total Picks (5 Books) - 2017 Preview
    Over/Under Season Win Total picks are now available for every college football team at five different books.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by