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    Soccer Power Rankings (09/03/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Soccer Power Rankings and Full Season Projections.



    The transfer window for European soccer is closed, which means this is as good a time as any to check in with each league. How have the Power Rankings changed, are there new projected champions?

    As a reminder, we will now be simulating every scheduled game from the top five European soccer leagues as well as the MLS.

    After every recorded play (penalty, throw-in, free kick, corner, goal, shot, substitution) we will simulate the rest of the game 50,000 times to determine the likelihood of a win, loss or draw for both teams as well as the projected final score.

    All games will be available in real-time from the Live ScoreCaster page or in the Live ScoreCaster App on iTunes or Google Play.

    Here are the leagues we are covering for their upcoming seasons:
    • English Premier League
    • Spanish Primera Division
    • Italian Serie A
    • German Bundesliga
    • French La Ligue 1
    • USA Major League Soccer
    • World Cup (likely other International matches)

    English Premier League

    Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United combined to spend £340 million during the transfer window. City set a record with £160 million, the majority of which was spent on obtaining Kevin De Bruyne from Wolfsburg and Raheem Sterling from Liverpool.

    The Blues are currently 4-0-0 having found the back of the net ten times and allowed no goals. City remains No. 1 in our Power Rankings and is projected to win the Premier League.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Manchester City
    2 Arsenal FC
    3 Chelsea FC
    4 Manchester United
    5 Southampton FC
    6 Crystal Palace
    7 West Ham United
    8 Tottenham Hotspur
    9 Leicester City
    10 Swansea City
    11 Everton FC
    12 Liverpool FC
    13 Stoke City
    14 West Bromwich Albion
    15 Aston Villa
    16 Newcastle United
    17 Sunderland AFC
    18 Bournemouth AFC
    19 Norwich City
    20 Watford FC

    Full Season Projections

    Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
    Manchester City 28.1 4.3 5.6 89.9
    Arsenal FC 21.1 9.3 7.6 70.9
    Chelsea FC 21.2 9.6 7.3 70.9
    Manchester United 20.0 9.8 8.3 68.3
    Southampton FC 18.3 11.2 8.5 63.4
    West Ham United 17.1 13.0 7.9 59.2
    Crystal Palace 17.0 13.1 7.9 58.9
    Tottenham Hotspur 16.8 13.0 8.2 58.6
    Leicester City 16.7 13.4 7.9 58
    Swansea City 16.1 13.6 8.3 56.6
    Everton FC 15.5 14.3 8.3 54.8
    Liverpool FC 15.0 14.0 9.0 54
    Stoke City 14.6 14.7 8.7 52.5
    West Bromwich Albion 11.2 17.9 8.9 42.5
    Aston Villa 10.5 18.6 9.0 40.5
    Newcastle United 10.5 19.1 8.4 39.9
    Sunderland AFC 10.5 19.5 8.0 39.5
    Bournemouth AFC 7.9 24.0 6.1 29.8
    Norwich City 7.2 24.9 5.9 27.5
    Watford FC 6.8 24.7 6.5 26.9

    Spanish Primera Division

    Winning is better than sex! At least that is what Barcelona's Sergio Busquets thinks. Luckily for Busquets, we project Barca to win and often. Though not as much as rival Real Madrid. Los Blancos has jumped Barca in our Power Rankings and is the favorite to win the Primera Division.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Real Madrid
    2 FC Barcelona
    3 Atletico Madrid
    4 Villarreal CF
    5 Valencia CF
    6 Sevilla FC
    7 Malaga CF
    8 Real Sociedad
    9 Espanyol de Barcelona
    10 Getafe CF
    11 Celta de Vigo
    12 Athletic Bilbao
    13 Deportivo La Coruna
    14 SD Eibar
    15 Las Palmas UD
    16 Sporting Gijon
    17 Levante UD
    18 Granada CF
    19 Betis Sevilla
    20 Rayo Vallecano

    Full Season Projections

    Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
    Real Madrid 31.6 2.6 3.8 98.6
    FC Barcelona 30.3 2.7 5.0 95.9
    Atletico Madrid 26.1 5.7 6.2 84.5
    Villarreal CF 25.5 5.7 6.8 83.3
    Valencia CF 20.4 8.6 9.0 70.2
    Sevilla FC 19.0 12.6 6.4 63.4
    Malaga CF 17.1 13.1 7.8 59.1
    Real Sociedad 15.9 12.6 9.5 57.2
    Espanyol Barcelona 16.4 13.8 7.8 57
    Getafe CF 14.7 14.3 9.0 53.1
    Celta de Vigo 13.6 14.0 10.4 51.2
    Athletic Bilbao 14.2 16.4 7.4 50
    Deportivo La Coruna 12.2 15.6 10.2 46.8
    Las Palmas UD 8.8 23.4 5.9 32.3
    Sporting Gijon 8.6 23.3 6.2 32
    SD Eibar 7.4 20.9 9.7 31.9
    Levante UD 6.4 24.8 6.8 26
    Betis Sevilla 6.8 26.0 5.2 25.6
    Granada CF 6.0 24.8 7.2 25.2
    Rayo Vallecano 5.2 25.5 7.3 22.9

    Italian Serie A

    It has been a poor start to the season for Juventus. The reigning Serie A champions opened with consecutive losses as they attempt to win the league for a fifth straight time. Despite the early stumble, Juve is still the most likely Serie A winner.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Juventus Turin
    2 Lazio Roma
    3 AS Roma
    4 SSC Napoli
    5 AC Fiorentina
    6 Genoa FC
    7 Inter Milan
    8 AC Milan
    9 Sampdoria Genoa
    10 Turin FC
    11 US Palermo
    12 US Sassuolo
    13 FC Empoli
    14 Hellas Verona
    15 Udinese Calcio
    16 Atalanta Bergamasca
    17 AC Chievo Verona
    18 Bologna FC
    19 Frosinone Calcio
    20 Carpi FC

    Full Season Projections

    Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
    Juventus Turin 24.9 5.9 7.2 81.9
    Lazio Roma 21.4 9.2 7.3 71.5
    AS Roma 19.6 9.9 8.5 67.3
    SSC Napoli 19.8 11.1 7.1 66.5
    AC Fiorentina 19.1 11.2 7.7 65.0
    Genoa FC 18.3 11.9 7.8 62.7
    Inter Milan 18.0 12.1 7.9 61.9
    AC Milan 17.2 12.8 8.1 59.7
    Sampdoria Genoa 16.8 12.5 8.6 59.0
    US Palermo 16.1 13.8 8.1 56.4
    Turin FC 15.9 13.4 8.6 56.3
    US Sassuolo 15.1 14.7 8.2 53.5
    FC Empoli 13.8 15.8 8.4 49.8
    Hellas Verona 13.3 16.8 8.0 47.9
    Udinese Calcio 12.8 16.6 8.6 47.0
    Atalanta Bergamasca 8.7 20.8 8.5 34.6
    AC Chievo Verona 8.0 21.3 8.6 32.6
    Bologna FC 8.2 23.4 6.4 31.0
    Frosinone Calcio 7.5 24.2 6.3 28.8
    Carpi FC 7.4 24.7 5.9 28.1

    German Bundesliga

    Dortmund is the surprise of the Bundesliga sitting atop the division with a perfect record and 11 goals scored. Bayern Munich remains the class of the league and Bayern is the most likely champion with Dortmund projected to finish outside the top three.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Bayern Munich
    2 VfL Wolfsburg
    3 Bayer Leverkusen
    4 Borussia Dortmund
    5 1899 Hoffenheim
    6 Eintracht Frankfurt
    7 FC Schalke 04
    8 VfB Stuttgart
    9 Monchengladbach
    10 1 FC Cologne
    11 FC Augsburg
    12 Hertha BSC
    13 Hannover 96
    14 Werder Bremen
    15 1 FSV Mainz 05
    16 SV Darmstadt 98
    17 Hamburger SV
    18 FC Ingolstadt

    Full Season Projections

    Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
    Bayern Munich 29.3 1.4 3.3 91.2
    VfL Wolfsburg 21.7 6.4 6.0 71.1
    Bayer Leverkusen 19.6 8.3 6.1 64.9
    Borussia Dortmund 16.8 10.0 7.2 57.6
    1899 Hoffenheim 16.5 11.0 6.5 56.0
    Eintracht Frankfurt 16.2 11.9 5.9 54.5
    FC Schalke 04 14.4 12.1 7.4 50.6
    VfB Stuttgart 14.7 13.5 5.8 49.9
    Monchengladbach 13.4 13.4 7.2 47.4
    1 FC Cologne 11.3 14.9 7.8 41.7
    Hertha BSC 11.6 15.6 6.9 41.7
    FC Augsburg 11.1 14.7 8.2 41.5
    Hannover 96 11.6 16.1 6.3 41.1
    Werder Bremen 10.7 17.0 6.3 38.4
    1 FSV Mainz 05 10.1 17.1 6.8 37.1
    SV Darmstadt 98 7.5 21.0 5.6 28.1
    FC Ingolstadt 6.2 22.4 5.4 24.0
    Hamburger SV 5.6 21.6 6.8 23.6

    French La Ligue 1

    Paris Saint-Germain has yet to concede a goal this season and sit atop Ligue 1. The French champions are in position to capture their four straight title.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Paris St Germain
    2 Olympique Lyon
    3 Olympique Marseille
    4 Stade Rennes
    5 AS Saint Etienne
    6 Stade Reims
    7 SC Bastia
    8 AS Monaco
    9 OGC Nice
    10 FC Nantes
    11 FC Girondins Bordeaux
    12 FC Lorient
    13 SM Caen
    14 Toulouse FC
    15 Lille OSC
    16 Montpellier HSC
    17 SCO Angers
    18 EA Guingamp
    19 Troyes AC
    20 Gazelec Ajaccio

    Full Season Projections

    Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
    Paris St Germain 26.9 3.5 7.6 88.3
    Olympique Lyon 26.2 5.3 6.5 85.1
    Olympique Marseille 21.5 8.3 8.2 72.7
    Stade Rennes 20.7 9.6 7.7 69.8
    AS Saint Etienne 20.0 9.1 8.9 68.9
    Stade Reims 19.0 10.5 8.5 65.5
    SC Bastia 17.9 10.9 9.2 62.9
    AS Monaco 17.0 12.1 8.9 59.9
    OGC Nice 16.7 13.1 8.1 58.2
    FC Nantes 15.4 12.5 10.2 56.4
    FC Girondins Bordeaux 15.5 13.8 8.8 55.3
    FC Lorient 13.6 16.1 8.3 49.1
    SM Caen 11.5 18.5 8.1 42.6
    Toulouse FC 10.8 18.4 8.8 41.2
    Lille OSC 10.3 18.3 9.3 40.2
    Montpellier HSC 9.7 19.5 8.8 37.9
    SCO Angers 10.1 21.4 6.6 36.9
    EA Guingamp 8.6 21.9 7.4 33.2
    Troyes AC 4.8 28.9 4.3 18.7
    Gazelec Ajaccio 4.2 29.0 4.8 17.4

    Major League Soccer

    DC United is the leader in the East and the LA Galaxy are tops out West but it's the New York Red Bulls that are projected to finish with the most wins. The finish to the MLS season should prove entertaining.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 LA Galaxy
    2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
    3 Seattle Sounders
    4 NY Red Bulls
    5 Toronto FC
    6 Sporting Kansas City
    7 San Jose Earthquakes
    8 DC United
    9 Houston Dynamo
    10 FC Dallas
    11 Columbus Crew
    12 New England Revolution
    13 Portland Timbers
    14 Montreal Impact
    15 Colorado Rapids
    16 Orlando City SC
    17 New York City FC
    18 Real Salt Lake
    19 Chicago Fire
    20 Philadelphia Union

    Full Season Projections

    Team Proj. Wins Proj. Losses Proj. Draws Points
    NY Red Bulls 16.5 10.3 7.3 56.8
    LA Galaxy 16.2 10.0 7.8 56.4
    Vancouver Whitecaps FC 15.6 9.2 8.2 55.0
    Seattle Sounders 15.3 10.0 8.7 54.6
    Toronto FC 15.7 10.7 6.6 53.7
    DC United 14.6 11.3 8.1 51.9
    Sporting Kansas City 14.7 11.9 7.4 51.5
    San Jose Earthquakes 13.3 12.0 8.8 48.7
    Columbus Crew 13.8 13.3 6.9 48.3
    Houston Dynamo 13.3 12.7 8.0 47.9
    New England Revolution 13.1 13.4 7.5 46.8
    Montreal Impact 12.3 14.4 7.3 44.2
    FC Dallas 12.0 12.9 8.1 44.1
    Orlando City SC 11.6 15.1 7.3 42.1
    Portland Timbers 11.0 14.1 8.9 41.9
    New York City FC 11.3 15.4 7.3 41.2
    Colorado Rapids 10.0 13.8 9.2 39.2
    Chicago Fire 10.5 16.1 7.4 38.9
    Real Salt Lake 9.6 15.8 8.6 37.4
    Philadelphia Union 9.6 17.5 6.9 35.7

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