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    Soccer Power Rankings (08/07/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Soccer Power Rankings and Full Season Projections.



    The European soccer season gets underway this weekend. As such, we will now be simulating every scheduled game from the top five European soccer leagues as well as the MLS.

    After every recorded play (penalty, throw-in, free kick, corner, goal, shot, substitution) we will simulate the rest of the game 50,000 times to determine the likelihood of a win, loss or draw for both teams as well as the projected final score.

    All games will be available in real-time from the Live ScoreCaster page or in the Live ScoreCaster App on iTunes or Google Play.

    Here are the leagues we are covering for their upcoming seasons:
    • English Premier League
    • Spanish Primera Division
    • Italian Serie A
    • German Bundesliga
    • French La Ligue 1
    • USA Major League Soccer
    • World Cup (likely other International matches)

    In addition to simulating each match, below we are also providing Power Rankings and full season projections (or rest of season in the case of the MLS) for each of these leagues.

    To build the Soccer Power Rankings below, we have "played" every team against every other team 50,000 times, using strength-of-schedule-adjusted statistics, and ranked each team by overall winning percentage in those games.

    The full season and rest of season projections are created by simulating each season 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide projected records and standings for each team in each league.









    English Premier League

    It has been 20 years since a team outside the traditional powers of Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea has won the Premier League trophy. That streak is likely to continue in the 2015-16 season.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Manchester City
    2 Chelsea FC
    3 Arsenal FC
    4 Manchester United
    5 Southampton FC
    6 Tottenham Hotspur
    7 Liverpool FC
    8 Stoke City
    9 Swansea City
    10 West Ham United
    11 Crystal Palace
    12 Everton FC
    13 Leicester City
    14 West Bromwich Albion
    15 Newcastle Utd
    16 Aston Villa
    17 Sunderland AFC
    18 Watford FC
    19 Bournemouth AFC
    20 Norwich City

    2015-16 Season Projections

    Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
    Manchester City 25.2 6.4 6.4 82.0
    Chelsea FC 23.9 7.0 7.1 78.8
    Arsenal FC 22.9 7.9 7.2 75.9
    Manchester Utd 21.2 8.9 7.9 71.5
    Southampton FC 19.2 10.3 8.5 66.1
    Tottenham Hotspur 17.3 12.8 7.9 59.8
    Liverpool FC 16.6 13.0 8.4 58.2
    Stoke City 15.5 13.8 8.7 55.2
    Swansea City 14.7 14.6 8.7 52.8
    Everton FC 14.2 15.5 8.3 51.0
    Crystal Palace 14.2 15.4 8.4 51.0
    West Ham Utd 14.1 15.1 8.7 51.0
    Leicester City 13.7 16.0 8.3 49.4
    West Bromwich Albion 12.4 16.6 9.0 42.6
    Newcastle Utd 11.4 18.2 8.4 36.9
    Aston Villa 9.3 19.7 9.0 35.6
    Sunderland AFC 8.9 20.2 8.9 32.1
    Watford FC 8.5 22.8 6.6 32.1
    Bournemouth AFC 8.5 22.9 6.6 32.1
    Norwich City 8.5 22.9 6.6

    Spanish Primera Division

    Barcelona and Real Madrid have won all but one La Liga titles in the past decade. The two powerhouses will battle it out once again for the championship this year.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 FC Barcelona
    2 Real Madrid
    3 Villarreal CF
    4 Atletico Madrid
    5 Valencia CF
    6 Sevilla FC
    7 Malaga CF
    8 Espanyol Barcelona
    9 Real Sociedad
    10 Athletic Bilbao
    11 Getafe CF
    12 Deportivo La Coruna
    13 Celta de Vigo
    14 SD Eibar
    15 Granada CF
    16 Rayo Vallecano
    17 Levante UD
    18 Sporting Gijon
    19 Betis Sevilla
    20 Las Palmas UD

    2015-16 Season Projections

    Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
    FC Barcelona 24.7 5.9 7.4 81.5
    Real Madrid 24.5 6.7 6.9 80.4
    Villarreal CF 21.4 8.4 8.2 72.4
    Atletico Madrid 21.3 8.8 7.9 71.8
    Valencia CF 18.7 10.3 9.0 65.1
    Sevilla FC 18.6 12.0 7.4 63.2
    Malaga CF 17.2 12.5 8.3 59.9
    Espanyol Barcelona 16.0 13.5 8.4 56.4
    Athletic Bilbao 16.0 14.2 7.8 55.8
    Real Sociedad 15.7 13.6 8.7 55.8
    Getafe CF 15.2 13.8 9.0 54.6
    Deportivo La Coruna 14.1 14.5 9.4 51.7
    Celta de Vigo 14.0 14.5 9.5 51.5
    SD Eibar 9.5 18.9 9.6 38.1
    Granada CF 9.5 19.9 8.3 37.7
    Levante UD 9.6 20.3 8.1 36.9
    Rayo Vallecano 9.4 20.1 8.5 36.7
    Las Palmas UD 8.0 23.8 6.2 30.2
    Sporting Gijon 7.9 23.8 6.2 29.9
    Betis Sevilla 7.9 23.9 6.2 29.9

    Italian Serie A

    Juventus has been one of the most successful clubs in Italian football history. Juve has won the last four Serie A titles and is positioned to take the championship once again.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Juventus Turin
    2 Lazio Roma
    3 AS Roma
    4 SSC Napoli
    5 AC Fiorentina
    6 Genoa FC
    7 Inter Milan
    8 AC Milan
    9 Sampdoria Genoa
    10 Turin FC
    11 US Palermo
    12 US Sassuolo
    13 FC Empoli
    14 Hellas Verona
    15 Udinese Calcio
    16 Atalanta Bergamasca
    17 AC Chievo Verona
    18 Bologna FC
    19 Frosinone Calcio
    20 Carpi FC

    2015-16 Season Projections

    Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
    Juventus Turin 25.7 5.2 7.1 84.2
    Lazio Roma 21.8 9.0 7.2 72.6
    AS Roma 19.5 9.9 8.6 67.1
    SSC Napoli 19.4 11.4 7.2 65.4
    AC Fiorentina 18.8 11.4 7.8 64.2
    Genoa FC 18.4 11.9 7.7 62.9
    Inter Milan 17.9 12.3 7.9 61.6
    AC Milan 17.2 12.8 8.0 59.6
    Sampdoria Genoa 16.7 12.5 8.9 59.0
    Turin FC 15.8 13.6 8.6 56.0
    US Palermo 15.6 14.3 8.0 54.8
    US Sassuolo 14.6 15.3 8.2 52.0
    FC Empoli 14.1 15.5 8.4 50.7
    Hellas Verona 13.6 16.4 8.0 48.8
    Udinese Calcio 13.1 16.4 8.5 47.8
    Atalanta Bergamasca 8.2 21.3 8.5 33.1
    AC Chievo Verona 7.7 21.5 8.8 31.9
    Bologna FC 7.9 23.8 6.3 30.0
    Carpi FC 7.9 23.8 6.3 30.0
    Frosinone Calcio 7.9 23.8 6.3 30.0

    German Bundesliga

    In European soccer, the best teams are usually the ones that win. It is no different in the Bundesliga.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Bayern Munich
    2 VfL Wolfsburg
    3 Bayer Leverkusen
    4 1899 Hoffenheim
    5 VfB Stuttgart
    6 Monchengladbach
    7 Eintracht Frankfurt
    8 FC Schalke 04
    9 Borussia Dortmund
    10 FC Augsburg
    11 Hertha BSC
    12 Werder Bremen
    13 1 FC Cologne
    14 Hannover 96
    15 1 FSV Mainz 05
    16 Hamburger SV
    17 FC Ingolstadt
    18 SV Darmstadt 98

    2015-16 Season Projections

    Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
    Bayern Munich 22.2 5.3 6.5 73.1
    Bayer Leverkusen 16.7 10.3 7.0 57.1
    VfL Wolfsburg 16.6 10.1 7.3 57.1
    1899 Hoffenheim 16.3 10.6 7.1 56.0
    VfB Stuttgart 15.5 11.6 6.9 53.4
    Monchengladbach 15.1 11.4 7.5 52.8
    Eintracht Frankfurt 14.8 12.2 7.0 51.4
    FC Schalke 04 14.3 11.8 7.9 50.8
    FC Augsburg 13.3 12.9 7.8 47.7
    Borussia Dortmund 13.2 12.6 8.1 47.7
    Hertha BSC 13.2 13.4 7.4 47.0
    Werder Bremen 13.1 13.8 7.1 46.4
    1 FC Cologne 12.5 13.4 8.1 45.6
    Hannover 96 11.6 16.2 6.2 41.0
    1 FSV Mainz 05 10.8 15.9 7.3 39.7
    Hamburger SV 8.5 17.6 7.9 33.4
    SV Darmstadt 98 7.0 21.2 5.8 26.8
    FC Ingolstadt 7.0 21.2 5.8 26.8

    French La Ligue 1

    Paris Saint-Germain has won the last three Ligue 1 titles. PSG is the betting favorite and our pick to make it four straight years.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Paris Saint-Germain
    2 Olympique Lyon
    3 Olympique Marseille
    4 AS Saint Etienne
    5 AS Monaco
    6 Stade Rennes
    7 SC Bastia
    8 Stade Reims
    9 FC Lorient
    10 OGC Nice
    11 FC Nantes
    12 FC Girondins Bordeaux
    13 Montpellier HSC
    14 SM Caen
    15 Lille OSC
    16 EA Guingamp
    17 Toulouse FC
    18 Troyes AC
    19 Gazelec Ajaccio
    20 SCO Angers

    2015-16 Season Projections

    Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
    Paris Saint-Germain 23.9 6.2 7.9 79.6
    Olympique Lyon 20.8 9.5 7.7 70.1
    Olympique Marseille 18.3 11.0 8.8 63.7
    AS Saint Etienne 17.4 11.8 8.9 61.1
    Stade Rennes 17.5 12.2 8.3 60.9
    AS Monaco 17.4 12.0 8.7 60.9
    SC Bastia 16.8 12.1 9.1 59.5
    FC Lorient 16.8 13 8.3 58.7
    Stade Reims 16.4 12.3 9.2 58.4
    OGC Nice 15.9 13.1 8.9 56.6
    FC Girondins Bordeaux 15.4 14 8.6 54.8
    FC Nantes 15.4 13.9 8.7 54.8
    Montpellier HSC 15.1 14.3 8.6 53.9
    SM Caen 13.6 15.9 8.5 49.3
    Lille OSC 12.9 16.4 8.7 47.4
    EA Guingamp 12.2 17.5 8.4 45.0
    Toulouse FC 8.4 20.8 8.8 34.0
    Gazelec Ajaccio 7.8 23.9 6.3 29.8
    Troyes AC 7.8 23.9 6.4 29.8
    SCO Angers 7.8 23.9 6.4 29.8


    Major League Soccer

    The 2015 MLS season is half over but nearly every team is still in contention to participate in the MLS Cup Playoffs. The defending MLS Cup champion LA Galaxy and Supporters' Shield winner (team with the best record) Seattle Sounders are two of the three best teams in the league.

    Power Rankings

    Rank Team
    1 Seattle Sounders
    2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
    3 LA Galaxy
    4 Toronto FC
    5 Sporting Kansas City
    6 Washington DC Utd
    7 Houston Dynamo
    8 San Jose Earthquakes
    9 Orlando City SC
    10 NY Red Bulls
    11 New England Revolution
    12 Columbus Crew
    13 Portland Timbers
    14 FC Dallas
    15 Montreal Impact
    16 Real Salt Lake
    17 New York City FC
    18 Colorado Rapids
    19 Chicago Fire
    20 Philadelphia Union

    2015-16 Season Projections

    Team Proj Wins Proj Losses Proj Draws Proj Points
    Washington DC Utd 16.4 9.9 7.7 56.9
    Sporting Kansas City 15.5 9.0 9.5 56.0
    Toronto FC 16.0 10.9 7.1 55.1
    Vancouver Whitecaps FC 15.6 11.4 6.0 52.8
    FC Dallas 148 11.1 8.1 52.5
    NY Red Bulls 14.5 11.2 8.3 51.8
    LA Galaxy 14.0 10.3 9.7 51.7
    Seattle Sounders 15.5 13.4 5.1 51.6
    Portland Timbers 13.1 12.7 8.2 47.5
    Columbus Crew 12.4 11.9 9.6 46.8
    San Jose Earthquakes 12.8 12.5 7.7 46.1
    Houston Dynamo 12.1 12.8 9.1 45.4
    New England Revolution 11.8 12.9 9.4 44.8
    Montreal Impact 12.4 15.2 6.4 43.6
    Orlando City SC 11.2 14.1 8.8 42.4
    Real Salt Lake 10.0 12.6 11.3 41.3
    Colorado Rapids 8.6 12.3 13.1 38.9
    New York City FC 9.7 15.3 9.0 38.1
    Chicago Fire 9.5 17.5 7.0 35.5
    Philadelphia Union 9.3 18.2 6.4 34.3

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