New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    SEC & B1G Bowl Season (12/18/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    The Big Ten is an underdog in each of its ten bowl games. The SEC is favored in 75 percent of its matchups. How will bowl season unfold for each conference?



    The bowl season is upon us. Ten conferences will send 76 teams to participate in 38 bowls. All of these high profile games allow the public to evaluate the power conferences based on the league's postseason performance.

    In the last decade, the SEC has gone 55-31 in bowl games, the best mark among Power 5 conferences, while the Big Ten is last with a ghastly 27-47 record.

    The SEC is generally considered the preeminent league in college football and bowl performance has a lot to do with that perception.

    It may be unfair to judge a conference based on bowl outcomes, but it sure is fun!

    Based on our predictions for bowl season, what are the odds that the Big Ten goes 0-10 in bowl games while the SEC wins out?

    Big Ten Conference

    The Big Ten went 2-5 in bowl games last year. Ten teams have qualified for the postseason this year, yet each is an underdog in Vegas. In our simulations, two Big Ten teams are actually more likely than not to win outright.

    Based on our projections, there is just a 1.6 percent chance that each B1G team loses its bowl game, while there is just a 16.9 percent chance that the conference finishes with a winning record (6-4 or better), which would be the first winning bowl season for the Big 10 since the 2009-10 season. In 50,000 simulations of each scheduled game, here are the likelihoods for each possible record for the Big Ten in its bowl games this year (not inlcuding the possible CFP National Championship Game):

    Record Chance
    0-10 1.6%
    1-9 4.2%
    2-8 11.3%
    3-7 21.0%
    4-6 26.1%
    5-5 18.9%
    6-4 11.3%
    7-3 4.1%
    8-2 1.2%
    9-1 0.3%
    10-0 0.0%

    Southeastern Conference

    The SEC is favored in nine of twelve bowl games. Alabama is the biggest favorite (-9.5) with its CFP semifinal against Ohio State. Ole Miss, South Carolina and Texas A&M are at least field goal underdogs in their respective bowl showdowns according to the sportsbooks.

    We have the SEC favored to win ten of the twelve bowl games. The SEC is 1,000-to-1 to sweep its bowl games based on our projections and is more than 60 percent likely to finish with a winning record (7-5 or better). The SES has less than a one-in-five chance of a losing record.

    In 50,000 simulations of each scheduled game, here are the likelihoods for each possible record for the SEC in its bowl games this year (not inlcuding the possible CFP National Championship Game):

    Record Chance
    0-12 0.0%
    1-11 0.1%
    2-10 0.2%
    3-9 1.8%
    4-8 4.3%
    5-7 11.0%
    6-6 20.2%
    7-5 21.2%
    8-4 20.7%
    9-3 12.5%
    10-2 6.1%
    11-1 1.8%
    12-0 0.1%

    The SEC and Big Ten are equally unlikely to finish at either extremes, a perfect or winless bowl season.

    The SEC, though, is nearly four times more likely to have a winning bowl record than the Big Ten.

    The Southeastern Conference should remain the dominant league in college football, including a strong bowl season and Alabama projected to win the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten, a projected bowl season loser, will have to wait another year to improve its perceived rank among the Power 5 conferences.
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Championship Prop Bets (01/11/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    16 Team Playoff (12/11/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    04/24/2017 Highlight: The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.

    NBA Four Quarters
    Sean Pyritz breaks down the first round of the NBA Playoffs thus far and hands out his Sixth Man of the Week award.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com