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2011 MLB Preview

Last Updated: 8/19/2014 10:04 PM ET

For the 2011 MLB regular season beginning March 31st, PredictionMachine.com will play every game of every day 50,000 times to provide money-line, run-line and over/under picks. Predictalator output comes complete with a Play Value Calculator, Play Value Key and Parlay Calculator for optimal bankroll management. Since this is our first season projecting daily MLB games, we would like to introduce the MLB picks and new features that accompany it to all for free, while also working out any potential issues that arise with the new product. The trial period will take place from 3/31 - 4/9. All subscribers also get access to the Customizable Predictalator for every team and game.

The Predictalator has played every 2011 MLB game 50,000 times before it's actually played. Based on that analysis, we present projected standings as well as the highest and lowest win totals for each team in the 50,000 seasons that were played. We also assess the likelihood that any team makes the playoffs (as a division or wild card winner) and then what teams do when they get there. And we have added Futures Odds, which is the likelihood of any team coming in Over or Under the current Win Total Lines courtesy of Bodog.

Please note that all percentages are rounded to the tenth of a percent. A team listed as having a 0.0% chance of something still can do it. To round to 0.1%, a team must achieve the goal 255 times in the 50,000 seasons played.

For the rest of our MLB 2011 Preview, please see our Power Rankings, Fantasy Rankings and Division-by-division Breakdowns.

Projected Standings (based on 2011 MLB season played 50,000 times)

AL East
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses High Wins Low Wins
Boston Red Sox 94.9 67.1 110 84
New York Yankees 89.7 72.3 104 78
Tampa Bay Rays 81.4 80.6 103 68
Baltimore Orioles 76.3 85.7 89 62
Toronto Blue Jays 74.1 87.9 90 59


AL Central
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses High Wins Low Wins
Chicago White Sox 90.3 71.7 105 73
Minnesota Twins 86.8 75.2 106 73
Detroit Tigers 79.6 82.4 100 68
Cleveland Indians 73.9 88.1 89 58
Kansas City Royals 72.4 89.6 88 57


AL West
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses High Wins Low Wins
Texas Rangers 88.2 73.8 106 75
Oakland Athletics 80.4 81.6 99 67
Los Angeles Angels 78.1 83.9 99 64
Seattle Mariners 70.2 91.8 92 53


NL East
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses High Wins Low Wins
Philadelphia Phillies 95.8 66.2 116 84
Atlanta Braves 87.8 74.2 103 76
Florida Marlins 78.7 83.3 95 63
New York Mets 78.6 83.4 93 65
Washington Nationals 71.5 90.5 87 57


NL Central
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses High Wins Low Wins
Cincinnati Reds 84.6 77.4 99 70
St. Louis Cardinals 83.8 78.2 100 71
Milwaukee Brewers 83.7 78.3 98 71
Chicago Cubs 82.9 79.1 97 69
Pittsburgh Pirates 69.8 92.2 83 53
Houston Astros 68.5 93.5 81 53


NL West
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses High Wins Low Wins
San Francisco Giants 89.4 72.6 105 75
Colorado Rockies 89.1 72.9 103 75
Los Angeles Dodgers 84.5 77.5 103 71
San Diego Padres 75.2 86.8 91 60
Arizona Diamondbacks 69.8 92.2 83 54


Playoff Probabilities (based on 2011 MLB season played 50,000 times)
       
Team Division Win Wild Card Win LCS Win World Series Win
Philadelphia Phillies 65.0% 14.5% 35.8% 21.5%
Boston Red Sox 53.8% 22.2% 34.2% 19.7%
New York Yankees 41.0% 26.3% 23.5% 12.7%
San Francisco Giants 46.8% 13.0% 20.6% 9.6%
Chicago White Sox 47.5% 13.7% 18.3% 9.3%
Texas Rangers 56.2% 8.8% 13.0% 5.4%
Colorado Rockies 34.0% 16.8% 11.9% 5.0%
Atlanta Braves 24.9% 15.8% 9.5% 3.8%
Cincinnati Reds 32.0% 6.1% 6.3% 2.6%
St. Louis Cardinals 26.8% 7.0% 5.6% 2.2%
Minnesota Twins 38.5% 10.5% 3.7% 1.6%
Oakland Athletics 31.2% 5.2% 3.5% 1.4%
Los Angeles Dodgers 17.7% 7.0% 3.5% 1.3%
Milwaukee Brewers 22.3% 5.4% 2.9% 1.1%
Florida Marlins 8.3% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7%
Tampa Bay Rays 4.4% 4.3% 1.3% 0.6%
Chicago Cubs 18.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.5%
Detroit Tigers 13.7% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5%
Los Angeles Angels 10.5% 4.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Seattle Mariners 2.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Baltimore Orioles 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New York Mets 1.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland Indians 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas City Royals 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington Nationals 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Astros 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego Padres 1.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%


Total Wins Picks (based on every 2011 MLB game played 50,000 times)
       
Team Total Wins Line Projected Wins Pick Pick%
Chicago White Sox 84.5 90.3 Over 60.8% Calc -->
Arizona Diamondbacks 74 69.8 Under 60.6% Calc -->
Los Angeles Angels 82.5 78.1 Under 59.6% Calc -->
Detroit Tigers 83.5 79.6 Under 58.5% Calc -->
Florida Marlins 82.5 78.7 Under 58.3% Calc -->
Colorado Rockies 84.5 89.1 Over 58.2% Calc -->
Houston Astros 71.5 68.5 Under 58.0% Calc -->
Tampa Bay Rays 85 81.4 Under 57.7% Calc -->
Toronto Blue Jays 77 74.1 Under 56.8% Calc -->
Kansas City Royals 70 72.4 Over 56.2% Calc -->
Pittsburgh Pirates 67.5 69.8 Over 56.0% Calc -->
Baltimore Orioles 74 76.3 Over 55.5% Calc -->
Texas Rangers 85.5 88.2 Over 55.4% Calc -->
New York Yankees 92.5 89.7 Under 55.3% Calc -->
Oakland Athletics 82.5 80.4 Under 54.4% Calc -->
Minnesota Twins 85 86.8 Over 53.7% Calc -->
Cincinnati Reds 83 84.6 Over 53.5% Calc -->
Seattle Mariners 71.5 70.2 Under 53.3% Calc -->
Philadelphia Phillies 97.5 95.8 Under 52.8% Calc -->
San Francisco Giants 87.5 89.4 Over 52.7% Calc -->
Boston Red Sox 96.5 94.9 Under 52.7% Calc -->
Cleveland Indians 73 73.9 Over 52.3% Calc -->
Los Angeles Dodgers 83.5 84.5 Over 52.2% Calc -->
San Diego Padres 75.5 75.2 Under 51.9% Calc -->
Chicago Cubs 82 82.9 Over 51.8% Calc -->
Milwaukee Brewers 84.5 83.7 Under 51.8% Calc -->
Atlanta Braves 87 87.8 Over 51.5% Calc -->
St. Louis Cardinals 84.5 83.8 Under 51.4% Calc -->
New York Mets 78 78.6 Over 51.3% Calc -->
Washington Nationals 71.5 71.5 Over 50.0% Calc -->

For the 2011 MLB regular season beginning March 31st, PredictionMachine.com will play every game of every day 50,000 times to provide money-line, run-line and over/under picks. Predictalator output comes complete with a Play Value Calculator, Play Value Key and Parlay Calculator for optimal bankroll management. Since this is our first season projecting daily MLB games, we would like to introduce the MLB picks and new features that accompany it to all for free, while also working out any potential issues that arise with the new product. The trial period will take place from 3/31 - 4/9. All subscribers also get access to the Customizable Predictalator for every team and game.

For the rest of our MLB 2011 Preview, please see our Power Rankings, Fantasy Rankings and Division-by-division Breakdowns.

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