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NFL Picks - Super Bowl XLV

Last Updated: 2/6/2011
NFL Picks Pages:
Super Bowl: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
SB XLV Props Analysis  Super Bowl Boxscore
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At this time, just the FREE projected score, straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under picks and the Paul's Analysis are available for Super Bowl XLV. The Super Bowl Boxscore and SB XLV Props Analysis have also now been published.

With our daily basketball products launching next week, Picks for every NBA and college game can currently be purchased in the Shop. Check back in next week, February 7, for the start of a two-week free trial for college and NBA picks.

Show Explanation

Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):
Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opp Line Margin Win% ATS Boxscore Calc Play
102 6:30 PMGB PIT -2.5 3.7 55.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play


Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win% Boxscore Play
102 6:30 PMGB Pit 22.4 18.7 60.5 Boxscore Play


Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% Boxscore Calc Play
102 6:30 PMPIT vs. GB 45 41.2 Under 58.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play

In the picks above, Margin, Points For, Points Against and Total Points are averages from 50,000 games played. The Win% ATS is the percentage of games in which the team picked covers the noted spread. Similarly, the Pick% in the Over/Under table is the percentage of time that the Over or Under pick covers the total. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. With all plays assumed to be -110, anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. Picks will be updated as needed due to injury or weather information.

The Play Value Key:
Given the winning percentages listed as our confidence for each pick, all plays are not created equal. Each against-the-spread and over/under play is color-coded to aid in play value decision making. All play values are relative to what we consider a "normal play." As a generally conservative rule of thumb, typical wagers should be 1-3% of one's bankroll and a normal play should never exceed 5% of one's bankroll and the combined plays for one day should not exceed half of one's bankroll. The Play Value Key on the right side of the page explains the colors. If the play is listed as '3X Normal Play' that means that it is very strong and worth wagering three times the value of a normal play. The key is fairly conservative with general rules of thumb and ignores the value of other plays made at the same time. For more specific recommendations, please use the Play Value Calculator. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.

The Play Value Calculator:
Using the Play Value Calculator is a more exact approach to understanding the value of a pick based on its expected win percentage. Clicking on 'Calc' next to any pick will automatically load that pick into the Play Value Calculator. Then, to get the most accurate recommendation as possible, please enter your normal play value and how many other plays you are making this day. As a generally conservative rule of thumb, typical wagers should be 1-3% of one's bankroll and a normal play should never exceed 5% of one's bankroll and the combined plays for one day should not exceed half of one's bankroll. Click 'Calculate' to see the value to wager for your play on that game. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.

The Parlay Calculator:
Our Parlay Calculator is unique. Traditional Parlay Calculators may provide the straight-line payout odds. You should be able to get any of that information relative to your picks from your line. Instead, we think it is more valuable to calculate your actual likelihood of success on a parlay. To use the calculator, click on the Show Parlay Calculator toggle and choose the number of games you are interested in playing. Add ATS or O/U percentages from the picks by clicking 'Calc' (as you would for the Play Value Calculator). Once you have added all of the games you are interested in, click 'Calculate' to see your Parlay Success and Payout Needed. The Parlay Success is the likelihood that each of these picks will cover. The Payout Needed expresses that value relative to payouts. As long as the payout odds you receive from are greater than or equal to the Payout Needed, the Parlay is an acceptable play. Since payouts are done on a straight-line odds basis, the Payout Needed from a combination of our playable picks will almost always yield an acceptable play. Everything is relative, however. Please note the Parlay Success value. With up to ten teams in a parlay, exotic plays like this will almost never be expected to win. We provide this information to set realistic expectations for parlay plays and to aid in comparing the relative differences between expected payout from the play and the possible payout. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.

NFL Picks Pages:
Super Bowl: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
SB XLV Props Analysis  Super Bowl Boxscore
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks
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*Normal play should not exceed 5% of bankroll.
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