NFL Picks - 1/1/2012

Last Updated: 12/28/2011 ( # Game is relevant to team's playoff outcome)
NFL Picks Pages:
January 1: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
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Learn more about the Predictalator Picks, Customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer with this Tutorial Video.

For each Sunday during the NFL season, Paul Bessire thoroughly breaks down the top four ATS plays. See Predictalator Picks for these games.

NFL Playoff Packages Now Available:
Capitalizing off of a solid 2011 performance in the NFL in which all playable picks went 129-88 ATS (59%) including an 11-0, UNDEFEATED NFL Playoff run, the Predictalator will play every NFL playoff game 50,000 times to provide projected scores and ATS, O/U and SU picks and boxscores for every game. Packages are available now in the shop. Picks will be posted the preceding Wednesday at 8:00 pm ET and updated as depth chart changes, weather or other information warrant. The Customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer will also be updated for each game and will be accessible to anyone who purchases the full playoff package. Every NFL Playoff pick will be broken down by Paul Bessire. Also, with the purchase of the NFL Playoff package you will receive the Predictalator's Super Bowl predicted box score with individual player stats and predicted outcomes for every prop team and player possible as well as live information during the game (more info to come).

WEEK 17 NOTES:
While we trust the numbers and had a solid Week 17 two years ago to clinch the inaugural Richard Gardner Pro Football Pick'em (against the spread) contest, we want to provide a little extra Week 17 insight.

First of all, please note the # next to teams below. The symbol is attributed to any team for which this weekend's game has playoff implications. We assume that every team is trying to win every game. This assumption is most relevant to games where both or neither of teams have playoff motivation. That being said, in games where one team has extra motivation and the other does not, if we have strong opinions on the side of the motivated team (as we see in a few cases this week), that fact can bring extra comfort with/personal confidence in that pick.

The most important Week 17 factor is expected depth chart and playing time distribution. Our performance will be strongest when we know who will be playing how much because it is hard to believe that those on the field would not be doing their best to win. We will attempt to account for this as best as we can by updating picks as frequently as necessary. The best way to find out who we have playing is to click the boxscore link next to each game and look at the projected stats.

And lastly, with updated roster information will come line changes. Week 17 line changes could/should be more drastic than usual, so expect lines to update with any game updates. That being said, the Paul's Picks with additional analysis will not be able to be updated after originally posting. Please see the Predictalator Picks, Play Analyzer and Customizable Predictalator for updated confidence.

Please approach Week 17 by taking into consideration all of the information here and making money management decisions as you are comfortable doing so.

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Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opp Line Margin Win% ATS Boxscore Calc Play
331 4:15 PMSEA Paul's Pick Upset Watch Top ATS Play of the Day Lock of the Week @ ARI 3 1.0 59.2 Boxscore Calc --> Play
316 1:00 PM@HOU Paul's Pick Upset Watch TEN# 3 0.8 58.6 Boxscore Calc --> Play
310 1:00 PM@GB Paul's Pick DET# 3.5 -0.5 57.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
325 1:00 PMBUF Paul's Pick @ NE# 12 -9.0 57.4 Boxscore Calc --> Play
302 1:00 PM@PHI WAS -9 11.3 57.2 Boxscore Calc --> Play
306 1:00 PM@STL SF# 10.5 -8.4 56.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
321 1:00 PMIND @ JAC 4 -1.5 56.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
313 1:00 PMCAR @ NO# 9 -6.5 56.4 Boxscore Calc --> Play
304 4:15 PM@ATL# TB -12 13.9 55.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
320 4:15 PM@CLE PIT# 7 -5.3 55.4 Boxscore Calc --> Play
318 4:15 PM@CIN# BAL# 2.5 -0.7 54.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
312 8:30 PM@NYG# DAL# -3 4.4 53.4 Boxscore Calc --> Play
330 4:15 PM@DEN# KC -3 3.8 52.3 Boxscore Calc --> Play
324 1:00 PM@MIA NYJ# -1.5 2.3 52.0 Boxscore Calc --> Play
308 1:00 PM@MIN Upset Watch CHI 1 0.8 51.6 Boxscore Calc --> Play
327 4:15 PMSD @ OAK# 3 -2.4 51.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play


Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win% Boxscore Play
304 4:15 PM@ Atl# TB 30.8 16.9 83.1 Boxscore Play
302 1:00 PM@ Phi Was 28.3 17.0 78.0 Boxscore Play
305 1:00 PMSF# @ StL 22.7 14.3 73.3 Boxscore Play
326 1:00 PM@ NE# Buf 31.0 22.0 71.5 Boxscore Play
319 4:15 PMPit# @ Cle 20.9 15.6 65.1 Boxscore Play
314 1:00 PM@ NO# Car 32.3 25.9 64.9 Boxscore Play
312 8:30 PM@ NYG# Dal# 27.2 22.8 60.5 Boxscore Play
330 4:15 PM@ Den# KC 22.2 18.3 60.0 Boxscore Play
324 1:00 PM@ Mia NYJ# 21.0 18.7 55.8 Boxscore Play
328 4:15 PM@ Oak# SD 27.2 24.8 55.5 Boxscore Play
322 1:00 PM@ Jac Ind 18.6 17.1 54.5 Boxscore Play
317 4:15 PMBal# @ Cin# 18.5 17.9 52.1 Boxscore Play
331 4:15 PMSea @ Ari 19.8 18.8 51.9 Boxscore Play
309 1:00 PMDet# @ GB 22.8 22.3 51.7 Boxscore Play
308 1:00 PM@ Min Chi 20.8 20.0 51.6 Boxscore Play
316 1:00 PM@ Hou Ten# 18.3 17.5 51.4 Boxscore Play


Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% Boxscore Calc Play
316 1:00 PMTEN# @ HOU 40.5 35.8 Under 58.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
330 4:15 PMKC @ DEN# 37 40.5 Over 56.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
312 8:30 PMDAL# @ NYG# 46.5 50.0 Over 55.6 Boxscore Calc --> Play
332 4:15 PMSEA @ ARI 41 38.6 Under 54.6 Boxscore Calc --> Play
328 4:15 PMSD @ OAK# 49 52.0 Over 54.4 Boxscore Calc --> Play
314 1:00 PMCAR @ NO# 55 58.2 Over 54.2 Boxscore Calc --> Play
318 4:15 PMBAL# @ CIN# 38 36.4 Under 53.1 Boxscore Calc --> Play
306 1:00 PMSF# @ STL 35.5 36.9 Over 52.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
326 1:00 PMBUF @ NE# 51 53.0 Over 52.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
322 1:00 PMIND @ JAC 37 35.7 Under 52.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
310 1:00 PMDET# @ GB 46.5 45.1 Under 52.3 Boxscore Calc --> Play
324 1:00 PMNYJ# @ MIA 41 39.7 Under 52.3 Boxscore Calc --> Play
302 1:00 PMWAS @ PHI 46.5 45.4 Under 51.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
304 4:15 PMTB @ ATL# 46.5 47.6 Over 51.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
320 4:15 PMPIT# @ CLE 36 36.4 Over 50.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
308 1:00 PMCHI @ MIN 41 40.8 Under 50.3 Boxscore Calc --> Play

In the picks above, Margin, Points For, Points Against and Total Points are averages from 50,000 games played. The Win% ATS is the percentage of games in which the team picked covers the noted spread. Similarly, the Pick% in the Over/Under table is the percentage of time that the Over or Under pick covers the total. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. With RL and O/U plays assumed to be -110, anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. To alter odds or to evaluate money-line plays, click on "Calc" and adjust the Odds in the Play Value Calculator. Clicking on the "Play" button will allow you to run that game through the Customizable Predictalator. An "Upset Watch" icon will appear next to games where we believe the underdog is more like than not to win outright. Picks will be updated as needed due to injury (up to one hour before game time).

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NFL Picks Pages:
January 1: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks

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