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    MLB Playoff Odds

    Last Updated: 9/28/2014

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and park-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one plate appearance at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Each entire playoff is played individually, with the team that wins the series in each unique instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    MLB World Series Playoff Odds (based on 2014 MLB Playoffs played 50,000 times):
    Region Seed Team Division League World Series Champ.
    AL 1 LAA - 53.8% 29.0% 14.3%
    AL 2 Bal - 49.3% 23.3% 10.6%
    AL 3 Det - 50.7% 25.2% 12.0%
    AL 4 KC 48.0% 20.1% 8.7% 3.5%
    AL 5 Oak 52.0% 26.1% 13.8% 7.1%
    Region Seed Team Division League World Series Champ.
    NL 1 Was - 55.8% 30.3% 16.6%
    NL 2 LAD - 57.4% 30.5% 16.9%
    NL 3 StL - 42.6% 19.6% 9.3%
    NL 4 Pit 53.6% 23.8% 10.7% 5.3%
    NL 5 SF 46.4% 20.4% 8.9% 4.4%

    The Los Angeles Dodgers are the slight favorites to win the World Series, bringing home the title 16.9% of the time, just 0.3% more likely than fellow National League team, the Washington Nationals (16.6%). The Dodgers are the most likely team to make it to the League Championship Series at 57.4% and the Dodgers are the most likely team to reach the World Series at 30.5% of the time. The most likely team from the American League to make it to and win the World Series is the Los Angeles Angels (29.0% to World Series and 14.3% win it all). The most likely World Series, features both Los Angeles teams with the Dodgers and Angels combining to win 31.2% of all simulations.

    Before the season started, we projected the Dodgers to win the World Series a league-high 11.9% of the time and for another wide open season as no team had greater a one-in-eight chance of winning it all. While we still expect a playoff where any team could win, the Dodgers, Nationals, Angels and Tigers account for nearly 60% of the World Series Championships. In addition to those teams, the only other club with greater than 10% chance is the AL East Champion Baltimore Orioles (10.6%). The four most likely champions are all top seeds with the Tigers being a three seed.

    Four Wild Card teams have won the World Series since 2002. The four Wild Card teams this year combine to win the World Series 20.3% of the time or a one-in-five chance. In the American League, Oakland is projected to beat the Kansas City Royals in the Royals first postseason in 29 years. Pittsburgh is projected to advance in the one game playoff in the National League. No Wild Card team in either league is expected to reach the World Series more often than the No. 1 seed, though Oakland has the greatest odds at 13.8%.

    Bolstered by the two strongest favorites, the National League is slightly more likely to win the World Series than the American League, winning 52.5% of the time.

    While we will update playoff odds after each round, the MLB Bracket Simulator (free) is available to simulate any possible MLB Playoff bracket and includes game-by-game series breakdowns for each series. Curious how your favorite team's odds change if they advance to the LCS? Use the MLB Bracket Simulator to find out.

    MLB postseason action opens Tuesday and is your home for MLB Playoff picks and predictions. Last year, all normal plays went 7-4 (64% ML, O/U and RL) returning a 44% profit for a $50 player. will play each MLB playoff game 50,000 times and publish Money-Line (ML), Run-Line (RL) and Over/Under (O/U) selections for each game. Picks will be available two hours prior to the first pitch or 4 pm ET (whichever comes first) with notification via email.

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    9/29/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of September 22-28, one could find that, highlighted NFL "normal" or better over/under plays went 3-0 and all playable over/unders went 7-3 (70% O/U). In the last two weeks all playable NFL over/under picks are 14-7 (67% O/U).

    In the last week of the MLB regular season, went 9-4 (69% ML, O/U, and RL) on all normal baseball plays. For the month of September, featured, "normal" or better MLB picks generated +$396 profit for a normal $50 player utiizing play value recommendations. In last season's baseball playoffs, all "normal" or better picks went 7-4 (64% ML, O/U, and RL) returning a +44% profit (including the purchase of the product) for a $50 player.

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