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    Percy Harvin to Seahawks (03/12/2013)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Percy Harvin was traded to the Seahawks and an offshore book has posted odds on Harvin's total receiving yards, total receptions, and total touchdowns in the 2013 regular season. Below we take a look at our projections for Harvin based on 50,000 simulations of last season.

    The Deal:

    Minnesota traded Percy Harvin to Seattle for the Seahawks 2013 first-round pick (25th overall). The trade could also see Seattle send their seventh-round pick in the 2013 draft as well as a mid-round pick in the 2014 draft to the Vikings.

    Seattle's Motivation:

    Harvin is only 24 years old, is not just an explosive wide receiver but also a dangerous return man. Seattle finished as the 11th ranked offense in our Power Rankings, 6th in offensive passing efficiency and 4th in offensive rushing efficiency. If there was one thing missing from an already potent attack it was a play maker on the outside.

    Minnesota's Motivation:

    Harvin has a history of injuries including a migraine problem that has seen him miss 10 games in his first four seasons in the league. By trading Harvin the Vikings can use free agency to procure a replacement. Or they can spend the first-round pick they got from Seattle to draft a wide receiver.

    Locker room reactions:

    The Numbers:

    Below is a look at Harvin's numbers over his four year career.

    Receiving

      Receptions Yards Touchdowns
    2009 60 790 6
    2010 71 868 5
    2011 87 967 6
    2012 62 677 3

    Rushing

      Rushes Yards Touchdowns
    2009 15 135 0
    2010 18 107 1
    2011 52 345 2
    2012 22 96 1

    Returning

      Attempts Yards Touchdowns
    2009 42 1156 2
    2010 40 933 1
    2011 16 520 1
    2012 16 574 1

    If you extrapolate Harvin's 2012 numbers out to a full season (he only played 9 games last year) he would have had 111 catches, 1,208 receiving yards, 171 rushing yards, and 7 touchdowns.

    Our Projections:

    Accounting for the addition of Harvin to an already high-powered offense, here are our projections through 50,000 simulations of last season. It is important to note that this projection assumes Harvin starts all sixteen games; he has only done that once in his four-year career.

    Adding Harvin to Seattle's roster improves the team by 0.4 wins, going from 11.2 to 11.6 wins. For Minnesota the loss of Harvin cost the team 0.5 wins moving their win total from 7.8 to 7.3 wins.

    Receptions Yards Touchdowns
    81.4 1121.3 5.29
         
    Rushes Yards Touchdowns
    42.4 166.1 1.23

    Las Vegas Prop Bets:

    Percy Harvin – Total Receiving Yards in 2013 Regular Season

    Over/Under               999.5

    Percy Harvin – Total Receptions in 2013 Regular Season

    Over/Under               74.5

    Percy Harvin – Total Touchdowns in 2013 Regular Season

    Over/Under               7.5

    It appears there could be some value in the over on the receiving yards and the over on the total receptions. One issue with projecting total touchdowns is that it includes receiving, rushing, and returning touchdowns. Our simulation does not provide kickoff return touchdown projections. I would recommend staying away from betting total touchdowns. We are projecting Harvin to have 6.51 touchdowns (receiving + rushing) and if you assume he gets one touchdown returning (he has at least one in each season thus far) then that puts you right at the 7.5 line that the offshores are offering.

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