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    Pens Streak and Playoffs (04/04/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    The Pittsburgh Penguins 15-game winning streak, the NHL playoffs, and NHL future bets.

    The Pittsburgh Penguins had their 15-game winning streak snapped Tuesday night. The Penguins were without Sidney Crosby (puck to face) as they tried to pull within one of the NHL record of 17 straight wins held by the 1992-93 Penguins. Pittsburgh winning streak was impressive but how does it stack up against the Miami Heat’s recent winning streak of 27 games?

    Comparing the streaks:

      Penguins Heat
    Wins 15 27
    Home 10 14
    Road 5 13
    No Rest 1 6
    Total Days 31 51

    At first glance the Heat look to have a more impressive streak. Miami played nearly as many away games as they did at home while Pittsburgh primarily played in front of its home crowd. The Heat also had six nights of back-to-back games whereas the Penguins only played games on consecutive days once. What about the odds?

    The odds of the Heat winning 27 games in a row were 1 in 5,000. The odds that the Heat tied the 33 game record were 1 in 25,000 and the odds that they broke the record were 1 in 33,333. The odds of the Penguins winning 15 games in a row were 1 in 2,500. The odds of them tying the 17 game record were 1 in 5,000 and the odds of them breaking the record were 1 in 10,000. Again it appears that the Heat had a more impressive record until you look at what the Heat’s odds were of winning 15 games (1 in 250) and 17 games (1 in 333) during their streak. Both records are impressive but I would give a slight nod to the Penguins.

    With the trade deadline passed and about a month before the playoffs we take a look at the championship odds for each team (assuming the season ended now) currently projected to make the playoffs. If you are curious about projected final standings click here.

    Our most likely Stanley Cup Champion is the Chicago Blackhawks who win it all 41.1% of the time. Chicago beats the Pittsburgh Penguins, our most likely winner of the Eastern Conference and second most likely champion, in the Stanley Cup Finals. While Chicago reaches the Conference Finals 58.8% of the time compared to Pittsburgh’s 40.3% it does not mean that the Blackhawks have an easier path, they are just that good. The Western Conference has four team in the top 5 in our Power Rankings and Chicago would have to navigate a Western Conference playoff bracket that includes six of the top ten teams to reach the Stanley Cup Finals.

    NHL Stanley Cup Odds (based on 2013 NHL Playoffs played 50,000 times):

    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals Stanley Cup Finals Champ.
    Eastern 1 Pit 81.8% 54.2% 40.3% 22.4%
    Eastern 8 NYI 18.2% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4%
    Eastern 4 Bos 56.7% 36.1% 12.7% 4.5%
    Eastern 5 Tor 43.3% 26.8% 9.1% 2.9%
    Eastern 3 Wpg 27.3% 6.0% 0.8% 0.1%
    Eastern 6 Ott 72.7% 31.1% 9.2% 2.5%
    Eastern 2 Mon 82.9% 37.5% 25.2% 10.9%
    Eastern 7 NJ 17.1% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals Stanley Cup Finals Champ.
    Western 1 Chi 85.9% 68.7% 58.8% 41.1%
    Western 8 StL 14.1% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8%
    Western 4 Van 39.0% 17.3% 3.1% 0.8%
    Western 5 LA 61.0% 35.2% 9.2% 3.2%
    Western 3 Min 58.0% 29.8% 6.8% 2.2%
    Western 6 SJ 42.0% 17.8% 3.5% 0.9%
    Western 2 Ana 72.7% 21.6% 14.4% 6.5%
    Western 7 Det 27.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5%

    Hockey Futures

    Pittsburgh is the current favorite at 15-4 odds followed by Chicago (5-1), Boston (9-1), and Anaheim (11-1). 

    Teams with value: 

    • Pittsburgh: Odds - 15-4, Odds Needed - 21.1%, Projected Odds - 22.4%
    • Chicago: Odds - 5-1, Odds Needed - 16.7%, Projected Odds - 41.1%
    • Montreal: Odds - 12-1, Odds Needed - 7.7%, Projected Odds - 10.9%

    Below are the odds for all teams.

    Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Pittsburgh 15-4 21.1% 22.4%
    Chicago 5-1 16.7% 41.1%
    Boston 9-1 10.0% 4.5%
    Anaheim 11-1 8.3% 6.5%
    Montreal 12-1 7.7% 10.9%
    Minnesota 12-1 7.7% 2.2%
    Vancouver 15-1 6.3% 0.8%
    Los Angeles 15-1 6.3% 3.2%
    San Jose 18-1 5.2% 0.9%
    NY Rangers 22-1 4.3% 0.0%
    St. Louis 25-1 3.8% 0.8%
    Ottawa 28-1 3.4% 2.5%
    Toronto 28-1 3.4% 2.9%
    Detroit 30-1 3.2% 0.5%
    Edmonton 35-1 2.7% 0.0%
    Washington 35-1 2.7% 0.0%
    Nashville 40-1 2.4% 0.0%
    New Jersey 40-1 2.4% 0.2%
    Winnipeg 40-1 2.4% 0.1%
    Carolina 50-1 1.9% 0.0%
    Philadelphia 50-1 1.9% 0.0%
    Columbus 66-1 1.5% 0.0%
    NY Islanders 66-1 1.5% 0.4%
    Buffalo 100-1 0.9% 0.0%
    Dallas 100-1 0.9% 0.0%
    Phoenix 100-1 0.9% 0.0%
    Tampa Bay 100-1 0.9% 0.0%
    Calgary 300-1 0.3% 0.0%
    Colorado 500-1 0.2% 0.0%
    Florida 500-1 0.2% 0.0%

     

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