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NFL Trends Week 3 (09/17/14)

John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
By John Ewing
NFL Week 3 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

Week 3 – Situational Trends


Survivor Pool Pick: All-time, teams favored by 14 or more points are 206-27 (88%) straight-up.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-14) vs. Raiders.

All-time, teams that lost by 20 or more points and are underdogs the following week are: 384-285-21 (57% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Steelers (+3.5) @ Panthers, Vikings (+9.5) @ Saints, and Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Colts.

All-time, teams that have lost two games in a row and failed to cover in both losses but are favored by 9 or more points the following week are: 25-35 (42% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Saints (-9.5) vs. Vikings.


NFL Trends – Week 3

Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team Spread Trend
AZ +3 vs. SF All-time, Arizona as a home underdog against the NFC West is 11-14 (44% ATS).
ATL -7 vs. TB In the Matt Ryan era, Atlanta as a home favorite of 7 or more points is 16-1 straight-up.
BAL -1.5 @ CLE In his career, Joe Flacco against the Browns is 8-4 (67% ATS).
BUF -2.5 vs. SD All-time, the Bills as home favorites of 3 points or less are 39-21-2 (65% ATS).
CAR -3 vs. PIT In the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 8-4 (67% ATS).
CHI +2.5 @ NYJ In the Jay Cutler era, the Bears as a road dog are 10-17 (37% ATS).
CIN -7 vs. TEN All-time, the Bengals on a two game win streak and as a favorite the next week are 19-13-2 (59% ATS).
CLE +1.5 vs. BAL All-time, the Browns as home dogs against the AFC North are 27-18-2 (60% ATS).
DAL -2.5 @ STL In Tony Romo era, Dallas as a road favorite is 14-20-1 (41% ATS).
DEN +4.5 @ SEA In Peyton Manning's career as a road dog of 7 or fewer points he is 19-15-1 (56% ATS).
DET -1.5 vs. GB Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has started every game, the Lions as favorites are 12-18-1 (40% ATS).
GB +1.5 @ DET Since 2008, when Aaron Rodgers has started a game, the Packers as underdogs are 12-9 (57% ATS).
HOU -2.5 @ NYG All-time, following an ATS cover by 10 or more points and going on the road the next week, the Texans are 8-12-1 (40% ATS).
IND -6.5 @ JAX In the Andrew Luck era, following a loss, the Colts are 9-1-1 (90% ATS).
JAX +6.5 vs. IND All-time, following two straight ATS losses, the Jags are 24-17-1 (59% ATS).
KC +5 @ MIA All-time, the Chiefs against the AFC East are 24-41-1 (36% ATS).
MIA -5 vs. KC In the last 10 years, the Dolphins as home favorites of 3 or more points are 6-23 (21% ATS).
MIN +9.5 @ NO All-time, teams that lost by 21 or more points and are road dogs the next week are 203-160-12 (56% ATS).
NE -14 vs. OAK In Tom Brady's career, the Patriots have been favored by 14 or more points at home 12 times, New England is a perfect 12-0 straight-up but 4-8 (33% ATS).
NO -9.5 vs. MIN In the Drew Brees era, the Saints as home favorites of 7 points or more are 18-13 (58% ATS).
NYG +2.5 vs. HOU Since Eli Manning was drafted in 2004, the Giants as home underdogs are 3-11 (21%) straight-up.
NYJ -2.5 vs. CHI In the Rex Ryan era, the Jets as home favorites are 14-18 (44% ATS).
OAK +14 @ NE All-time, road underdogs of 14 or more points are 112-83-8 (57% ATS).
PHI -6.5 vs. WAS In the last 10 years, the Eagles at home vs. the NFC East are 10-19-2 (35% ATS).
PIT +3 @ CAR In the Big Ben era, the Steelers as road dogs of 3 or more points are 15-10 (60% ATS).
SD +2.5 @ BUF Since 2006, Philip Rivers has played every game for San Diego, the Chargers as road dogs are 19-10-3 (66% ATS).
SF -3 @ AZ All-time, San Francisco following a loss and as a road favorite the next week are 87-66-1 (57% ATS).
SEA -4.5 vs. DEN Russell Wilson at home as a 7 point or fewer favorite is 6-0 (100% ATS).
STL +2.5 vs. DAL All teams coming off an ATS cover and as home dogs the next week are 350-289-17 (55% ATS).
TB +7 @ ATL All-time, Tampa Bay as a road dog of 7 or more points is 59-49-1 (55% ATS).
TEN +7 @ CIN All-time, teams following a loss of 14 or more points and as a dog of 7 or more points the next week are 289-224-11 (56% ATS).
WAS +6.5 @ PHI All-time, the Redskins as road dogs of 7 or fewer points are 82-54-7 (60% ATS).


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9/15/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of September 8-14, one could find that all playable NFL Week 2 against-the-spread plays, led by our Lock of the Week (Houston -3, which covered by two touchdowns) went 7-6 (54% ATS), while all playable halftime sides went 8-4 (67% ATS). In college football's Week 3, all playable picks for the week went 43-31 (58% ATS and O/U). In the last two weeks, all playable college football picks are 77-54 (59% ATS and O/U). Baseball picks continue to cash as all highlighted, "normal" MLB plays went 10-7 (59% ML, O/U, and RL). In the last two weeks all normal MLB plays are 16-10 (62% ML, O/U, and RL).

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