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    NFL Trends Week 5 (10/01/14)

    By John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    NFL Week 5 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    Week 5 – Situational Trends

    All-time, teams that lost by 21 or more points and are favored by double-digits are: 21-17 (55% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Saints (-10) vs. Buccaneers.

    All-time, 0-4 teams that are home dogs are 16-11-1 (59% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Steelers.

    All-time, teams that lost by 30 or more points and are home dogs of 7 or more points are: 34-21-1 (62% ATS)

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Redskins (+7) vs. Seahawks

    NFL Trends – Week 5
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Team Spread Trend
    AZ +7 @ DEN All-time, 3-0 teams that are dogs of 7 or more points are 5-2 (71% ATS).
    ATL +4 @ NYG Since 2008, in the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons following a loss and as dogs of 7 or fewer points are 9-1-1 (90% ATS).
    BAL +3.5 @ IND Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as dogs of 3 or more points are 14-10-3 (58% ATS).
    BUF +7 @ DET Since 2004, the Bills following two losses and as dogs of 7 or more points are 6-1 (86% ATS).
    CAR -2.5 vs. CHI Cam Newton against the NFC North is 5-2 (71% ATS).
    CHI +2.5 @ CAR Since 2009, when Jay Cutler became the starter, in games with an over/under of 46 or more points the Bears over is 8-16 (33%).
    CIN -1 @ NE All-time, 3-0 teams that are road favorites of 3 or fewer points are 6-12-2 (33% ATS).
    CLE -2 @ TEN In the last 10 years, the Browns as a road favorite are 5-1 (83% ATS).
    DAL -5.5 vs. HOU Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as home favorites of 7 or fewer points are 13-22 (37% ATS).
    DEN -7 vs. AZ Since 2012, the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as favorites of 7 or more points are 13-7-2 (65% ATS).
    DET -7 vs. BUF Since 2011, the Lions as home favorites of 3 points or more are 7-11 (39% ATS).
    GB -9 vs. MIN Since Aaron Rodgers became the starter, the Packers as favorites of 9 or more points are 16-10-1 (62% ATS).
    HOU +5.5 @ DAL All-time, teams that start 3-1 and are road dogs of 7 or fewer points are 27-35-2 (44% ATS).
    IND -3.5 vs. BAL Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as favorites of 3 or more points are 9-6-1 (60% ATS).
    JAX +6.5 vs. PIT All-time, the Jaguars as home dogs of 3 or more points are 20-28-1 (42% ATS).
    KC +7 @ SF In the last 10 years, the Chiefs as road dogs of 7 or more points are 17-14 (55% ATS).
    MIN +9 @ GB All-time, teams that 2-2 and are dogs of 9 or more points are 9-7-1 (56% ATS).
    NE +1 vs. CIN Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as home dogs are 6-2 (75% ATS).
    NO -10 vs. TB All-time, teams that lost by 21 or more points and then are favored by double-digits are 21-17 (55% ATS).
    NYG -4 vs. ATL Since 2005, the Giants following two wins and as a favorite are 12-1 (92%) straight-up.
    NYJ +7 @ SD Since 2009, the Rex Ryan era, the Jets as road dogs of 7 or more points are 7-3-1 (70% ATS).
    PHI -7 vs. STL All-time, the Eagles against the NFC West are 55-45-3 (55% ATS).
    PIT -6.5 @ JAX Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers as road favorites are 20-30-1 (40% ATS).
    SD -7 vs. NYJ Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home favorites of 7 or more points are 22-15 (60% ATS).
    SF -7 vs. KC Since 2011, the Jim Harbaugh era, the 49ers as home favorites of 7 or more points are 8-5-1 (62% ATS).
    SEA -7 @ WAS Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as favorites are 17-10-2 (63% ATS).
    STL +7 @ PHI In the last 10 years, the Rams as road dogs of 7 or more points are 15-27-1 (36% ATS).
    TB +10 @ NO In the last 10 years, teams that are road dogs of 10 or more points are 164-134-3 (55% ATS).
    TEN +2 vs. CLE In the last 10 years, the Titans as home dogs are 10-22 (31%) straight-up.
    WAS +7 vs. SEA All-time, teams that lost by 30 or more points and are home dogs of 7 or more points are 34-21-1 (62% ATS).

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