Thursday, April 22 at 11:17 PM ET
So now the Packers can trade up to 34 (Clausen's going at 33) to get Mays, right? Interesting to see both still available - especially because I such differing viewpoints on them. I think Mays is a top five player in this draft and Clausen is about the opposite. Sergio Kindle is a legit stud who is still available too. And if DTs are so important - which I would agree they are - why is Mount Cody still available? I get that Dan Williams and Jared Odrick may be more "versatile," but Cody can just erase the opponents' running game.
Jim Schwartz and the Detroit Lions braintrust are on to something. I don't love Stafford, but, like the Bradford pick this year, I get why the Lions pretty much had to do it last year. Everything else Detroit has done since then has made sense. It's about the right pieces, not necessarily the right stars.
Jerry Hughes is about the closest thing we have seen to Dwight Freeney since Freeney entered the league. Makes sense...
And now we watch the clamoring. One could make the argument that the Thursday first round is built more to extend the news attention to the NFL throughout the end of the water cooler week and then into the weekend. First round recaps and trade activity will be all the buzz tomorrow - even if Portland comes back from 29 back at the half or the San Jose Sharks score 27 goals.
More to come on the NFL Draft by the end of the week.
Thursday, April 22 at 10:37 PM ET
Huge fan of Kyle Wilson. The New York Jets may have the best secondary EVAR! (If they keep Wilson and Antonio Cromartie keeps his head on straight.)
Thursday, April 22 at 10:22 PM ET
I think my earlier hypothesis was correct. Josh McDaniels is out drinking. He probably should have stopped a couple of Jager-bombs ago. There's a word for the kind of guys that Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow are. Just remind me to never hangout in Denver.
As a redzone, short-yardage Wildcat who can throw, Tebow definitely has a place on the field. I just don't see an NFL team taking him seriously in the huddle and he'll probably never be a consistently effective starting QB. If I had to make a decision between Tebow and Clausen, I would definitely rather have Tebow. That's not saying much and neither would go in my first round.
It's not the Taylor Mays pick I so desperately wanted, but I'll take Brian Bulaga. Offensive line is definitely a place of need and Bulaga is more than adequate. And there may not be another player taken in the entire draft who better exemplifies Green Bay - though Wisconsin fans may have an initial problem with the fact that he's a Hawkeye.
If not for Denver's transgressions mentioned above, Demaryius Thomas would be a lock to have a better career than Dez Bryant.
Picks from 15-28 that will have good, long careers (in order of how good): Sean Weatherspoon (ATL), Devin McCourty (NE), Brian Bulaga (GB), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), Maurkice Pouncey (PIT) and Mike Iupati (SF)
Picks from 15-28 that will not have good, long careers (in order of how not good): Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG), Derrick Morgan (TEN), Jared Odrick (MIA), Kareem Jackson (HOU) and Dan Williams (ARI)
Thursday, April 22 at 9:26 PM ET
"YAY!!!!!!!!! WE GOTS A GUARD FROM IDAHO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YEAH!!! WOO!!!!!!! I'M ON TV!!!!! IDAHO!!!!!" If you saw it, you know exactly what I am talking about. Really? Iupati looks to me like a pretty solid pick, but I'm not sure the fans have a clue (he's also not even close to the top of the list of players I would have taken here). "YEAH!!!! MEL KIPER SAID HE WAS PRETTY GOOD!!! MEL KIPER IS MY GOD!!!! I CAN'T THINK FOR MYSELF!!!!! HE TELLS ME WHAT TO DO!!!! TV!!!!"
Thursday, April 22 at 9:12 PM ET
Do you think that Thursday is the night that Josh McDaniels usually goes out drinking with is college buddies? He really doesn't want to have to work tonight.
Taylor Mays > Earl Thomas.
I actually absolutely love the Tyson Alualu pick. Did a team actually draft the guy it wanted as opposed the guy the draftniks told it too - especially team with as wretched a draft history as Jacksonville? Congrats to the Jaguars on thinking independently - and getting a great defensive lineman.
Similar can be said for San Diego. Yes, many people had the Chargers taking Mathews, but later in the draft. I applaud them for moving up to get the guy they really want and need. To me, Mathews is the clear top running back available. He may not last forever, but he's an all-around back that always moves the pile.
I don't care what the stopwatch says, Joe Haden should be a solid contributor for many years - likely worthy of his selection as the seventh pick. He stood out on two of the more impressive defensive backfields in recent memory. And I will never forget the recovery he made in the Sugar Bowl after the entire team was fooled on a flea flicker. Haden showed better than 4.57 speed to hunt down an open Ben Guidugli and knock the ball away to prevent a Cincinnati touchdown.
Backflips have very little to do with playing football. JPP ("yeah you know me") is the early front-runner for bust of the draft (though there is a far better chance that one of the three Oklahoma players in the top five earns that honor). He's basically played football for one season. This reminds me more of an NBA pick than a smart NFL move.
Draft is flying by. I'm not sure I like it. Plus, it's much more difficult to get all the guys together for pizza and beer on a Thursday night than on the weekend - not to mention the competition with NBA and MLB (and the Office).
Thursday, April 22 at 8:09 PM ET
The real prediction should have been the time it takes to complete the first round. I can't imagine it will be finished by 11:00 PM, but I don't think anyone actually expects that. The first three picks went in 25 minutes, yet we've known all of those for weeks.
Bradford is a risk. His talent and numbers look pretty solid, but the shoulder issue could pop up again. Then again, he appears to me like the best available quarterback. I would put Colt McCoy next. I am definitely not high on Jimmy Clausen.
Eric Berry ("Burry" if you are watching NFL Network - and I'm intrigued that I don't agree with just about anything that Mayock & Company are saying... still not switching to ESPN). may be the best player in this draft. Suh is close, but I love Berry. Safeties are far more important than the draft usually gives them credit for - especially the elite ones. Berry should soon join the elite. The AFC West is not a division with great quarterbacks, but I think that actually makes the Berry pick even better because he will be able to do so a little bit of everything.
This year's group of offensive tackles is not nearly as good as the draft will indicate. Need and fit make a difference - that's essentially what we stand for - but I still wouldn't rank any of the tackles in the top 15 players available.
Suh should be pretty good and make a Pro Bowl or two, but I don't expect him to make the Hall of Fame. And, while I would love to hang out with Gerald McCoy, he could easily be a bust. He's just not nearly as fluid or productive as one would expect at #2 in the draft.
Now the draft should really get interesting. Hopefully Taylor Mays slips to Green Bay...
Tuesday, April 20 at 10:43 PM ET
The fast approaching NFL Draft is one of my favorite times of the year. Stat-focused or otherwise, hope and strategy are two of the biggest factors that make the league compelling. I want to know if the prototype Taylor Mays will slip to my Green Bay Packers or how many talented, yet high-risk players the Cincinnati Bengals will gamble on.
Professionally, the draft is interesting because it requires little prep work, yet signifies the start of the busiest season of the year - football season. No, we don't try to predict the draft. That process is ridiculous. Somehow, mock drafts seem to become reality more than accurately depict what reality would be otherwise. Fans are so engrossed in what Mel Kiper has to say that they get upset if their team does not take the player that Kiper speculated the team wanted to take. Think about that. It's true and it's very backwards.
If anything, the Predictalator should try to predict draftable players in the draft who would most benefit teams in the order that they pick. While that's possible, it's futile given reality (though we may still try it in the future - and would be happy to talk to any team in the future if it would like specific assistance). Instead, for now, we will do the only thing that makes sense by evaluating fits of the players drafted and provide rankings of those who should make the most impact in year one.
To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player's NFL team, previous performance of a similar player in that role for this coaching staff and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general. This allows us to predict both the player's projected ratio stats such as yards-per-carry, percentage of tackles made while on the field and passing completion percentage, as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming NFL season. Then we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his NFL team in his first year. It's a system that I have applied to the previous three drafts and with great success. My projections have highlighted the likely success of Percy Harvin, Jerod Mayo, Louis Delmas, Sean Smith, Ryan Clady and even Super Bowl hero Tracy Porter, while suggesting that Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Jerome Simpson, Everette Brown and even Matt Ryan were/are overrated.
And, as I mentioned, the draft truly kicks off the football season at PredictionMachine.com as we work diligently to calculate statistical inputs, health factors and expected usage for every NFL player before we begin playing through the entire 2010 schedule 50,000 seasons at a time. From there, we will be to provide fantasy projections and rankings, power rankings, game-by-game projections, divisional standings, playoff likelihood tables, the customizable Predictalator and much more. Football season will be huge for us at PredictionMachine.com.
So tune in after the draft to start following the hype. Until then, I will continue to dream of Taylor Mays...