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    NFL Picks Week 13

    Last Updated: 11/30/2016
    See Predictalator Picks for this week. All trends created in the Trend Machine. Injuries noted are players who are usually active who did not play in the simulated games.

    Thursday, December 1 at 8:25 PM ET:

    Minnesota Vikings +3 vs Dallas Cowboys (Covers 55.5%), UNDER 44 (Covers 51.4%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Dallas 22.0 - Minnesota 21.2
    SU Pick and Win%: Dallas wins 52.2%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #14
    ATS Pick and Win%: Minnesota Vikings +3 covers 55.5%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #4
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $33
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (44) 51.4%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #11
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: DAL MIN
    Straight-Up Record 10-1 6-5
    Against-the-Spread Record 9-2 6-4
    Over/Under Record 5-6 3-7
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 28.7-19.4 19.8-17.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #29 #23
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #2 #19
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #2 #30
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #26 #2
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #14 #16
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 49.6%/50.4% #59.7%/40.3%
    Turnover Margin +3 +12

    Injured Players: Justin Durant, LB, Dallas Cowboys, Rolando McClain, LB, Dallas Cowboys, Joe Berger, C, Minnesota Vikings, Marcus Sherels, CB, Minnesota Vikings

    Weather Forecast: N/A

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 76% Dallas, 24% Minnesota; O/U Bets - 67% Over, 33% Under

    The Breakdown: The Cowboys are projected to extend their winning streak to 11 games on Thursday night in Minnesota, but it is a very close game straight-up in the numbers. With several lines within a field goal and three other projected outright upsets, look for close games and several seemingly surprising outcomes. In this matchup, the elite Vikings' defense that ranks #1 overall in the league in our NFL Power Rankings (based on expected points allowed to an average team) and is second against the pass will clearly be the best defense rookie QB Dak Prescott has ever faced - and he has to do so on the road. In fact, the Cowboys have only played three games all season against above average defenses (Top 15 - Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York Giants) and all three of those were at home. Some regression from Prescott's amazing first season is expected and it could certainly happen in a dramatic way in front of a national audience on Thursday. On the flip side, Minnesota has only played one game all season against a defense as bad overall as Dallas at home (two others on the road). We should see different games from both offenses than most fans have come to expect as of late.

    Boxscore: Dallas Cowboys, 22 @ Minnesota Vikings, 21

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Detroit Lions +6 @ New Orleans Saints (Covers 56.5%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 56.4%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Detroit 27.4 - New Orleans 30.6
    SU Pick and Win%: New Orleans wins 58.0%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #8
    ATS Pick and Win%: Detroit Lions +6 covers 56.5%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #3
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $43
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 56.4%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #3
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $42

    The Teams: DET NO
    Straight-Up Record 7-4 5-6
    Against-the-Spread Record 6-4 8-3
    Over/Under Record 4-7 6-5
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.5-21.6 30.4-27.9
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #30 #6
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #10 #5
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #22 #19
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #24 #30
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #6
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 63.5%/36.5% #62.1%/37.9%
    Turnover Margin +3 +1

    Injured Players: Armonty Bryant, DE, Detroit Lions, Don Carey, S, Detroit Lions, DeAndre Levy, LB, Detroit Lions, Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions, Daniel Lasco, RB, New Orleans Saints

    Weather Forecast: N/A

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 60% Detroit, 40% New Orleans; O/U Bets - 85% Over, 15% Under

    The Breakdown: Frank Brank wrote a great article (here) on the Improbability of Every Lions' Win this season. Using Live ScoreCaster analysis, he concluded that by taking the leaset likely point for winning in each game, there is only one-in-40,000 chance that the Lions should have won each game they have. While that is certainly interesting on the season, it is not relevant to this pick for a couple reasons: a) the Lions do not have to win to cover the spread - in six of the seven games Frank references, the Lions were within six points in the fourth quarter and b) the Saints and Lions are basically the same team. Both offenses throw the ball at a high rate to a variety of weapons and efficiently while both defenses are historically bad. Though plenty of points are expected to be scored by both sides, the squads are similar enough that it is difficult to expect either to win by a touchdown or more.

    Boxscore: Detroit Lions, 27 @ New Orleans Saints, 31

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Cincinnati Bengals +1 vs Philadelphia Eagles (Covers 55.0%), OVER 42 (Covers 53.9%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Philadelphia 21.0 - Cincinnati 23.3
    SU Pick and Win%: Cincinnati wins 54.5%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #12
    ATS Pick and Win%: Cincinnati Bengals +1 covers 55.0%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #5
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $28
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (42) 53.9%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #7
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $16

    The Teams: PHI CIN
    Straight-Up Record 5-6 3-7
    Against-the-Spread Record 5-6 3-8
    Over/Under Record 4-6 5-6
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 23.1-19.4 19.4-22.3
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #7 #2
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #22 #16
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #13 #17
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #8 #13
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #26
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 58.6%/41.4% #60.3%/39.7%
    Turnover Margin +3 +1

    Injured Players: Lane Johnson, T, Philadelphia Eagles, Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia Eagles, Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals, A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, C.J. Uzomah, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

    Weather Forecast: Light rain. 40 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 67% Philadelphia, 33% Cincinnati; O/U Bets - 87% Over, 13% Under

    The Breakdown: Though the Bengals are too banged up to be considered "better" than the Eagles, they would be markedly so if at full strength. At home, getting points and still with quarterback and entire defense healthy, they have value. Cincinnati has played the second toughest schedule in the NFL to-date and, while the record is clearly not good, they have just one more loss than the Eagles who have played an easier schedule. Despite, a very good early start, the Eagles rank just 22nd overall in our NFL Power Rankings and are in the bottom ten in pass offense (#23 - due to expected Carson Wentz regression) and run defense (#22 - and the Bengals are leaning on the run now without AJ Green and Gio Bernard).

    Boxscore: Philadelphia Eagles, 21 @ Cincinnati Bengals, 23

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Chicago Bears -1 vs San Francisco 49ers (Covers 54.8%), OVER 43.5 (Covers 54.8%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: San Francisco 21.7 - Chicago 24.8
    SU Pick and Win%: Chicago wins 57.1%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #10
    ATS Pick and Win%: Chicago Bears -1 covers 54.8%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #6
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $25
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43.5) 54.8%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #5
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $25

    The Teams: SF CHI
    Straight-Up Record 1-10 2-9
    Against-the-Spread Record 3-7 3-8
    Over/Under Record 7-4 4-6
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 20.7-31.3 16.2-24.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #3 #20
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #24 #30
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #15 #16
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #18
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #30 #15
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 54.9%/45.1% #64.0%/36.0%
    Turnover Margin -5 -8

    Injured Players: Quinton Dial, DE, San Francisco 49ers, Aaron Lynch, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Quinton Patton, WR, San Francisco 49ers, Eric Reid, S, San Francisco 49ers, Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears, Jerrell Freeman, LB, Chicago Bears, Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears

    Weather Forecast: Light rain. 37 degrees. Wind. 15-20 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 65% San Francisco, 35% Chicago; O/U Bets - 81% Over, 19% Under

    The Breakdown: Windy, rainy and cold Chicago (also known a Fall in Chicago) should make this a sloppy game won by the team that runs the ball most effectively and better protects the football. The 49ers are worst in the NFL in run defense by a large margin, allowing 5.1 yards-per-carry - a number that has gotten worse over the year after an injury to NoVarro Bowman. Chicago actually ranks in the top ten in both run offense and run defense and is third in yards-per-carry margin (San Francisco is third worst in that metric), giving the Bears a clear advantageat home, even with Matt Barkley at quarterback.

    Boxscore: San Francisco 49ers, 22 @ Chicago Bears, 25

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Los Angeles Rams +13.5 @ New England Patriots (Covers 54.6%), OVER 44.5 (Covers 50.2%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Los Angeles 16.4 - New England 28.2
    SU Pick and Win%: New England wins 79.5%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #1
    ATS Pick and Win%: Los Angeles Rams +13.5 covers 54.6%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #7
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $23
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (44.5) 50.2%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #13
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: LA NE
    Straight-Up Record 4-7 9-2
    Against-the-Spread Record 5-5 7-3
    Over/Under Record 4-7 4-7
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 15.5-21.5 26.6-17.9
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #15 #24
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #27 #1
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #26 #21
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #6 #15
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #20 #11
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 59.8%/40.2% #55.1%/44.9%
    Turnover Margin -4 +3

    Injured Players: Cyrus Jones, CB, New England Patriots, Jordan Richards, S, New England Patriots, Matthew Slater, WR, New England Patriots

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 37 degrees. Winds 10-15 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 44% Los Angeles, 56% New England; O/U Bets - 14% Over, 86% Under

    The Breakdown: Favorites of 13.5+ points are just 43.8% against-the-spread all-time. As dominant as they may have seemed for years, Tom Brady's Patriots are just 11-16 ATS in such a scenario and 20-31-1 (39% ATS) as a double-digit favorite. The Rams run the ball often enough (especially with Jared Goff at QB) and play good enough defense to dictate tempo and keep the scoring low for both teams. The wind may play a roll in that too.

    Boxscore: Los Angeles Rams, 16 @ New England Patriots, 28

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 @ Atlanta Falcons (Covers 54.4%), OVER 49 (Covers 54.9%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Kansas City 25.4 - Atlanta 27.0
    SU Pick and Win%: Atlanta wins 53.6%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #13
    ATS Pick and Win%: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 covers 54.4%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #8
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $21
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (49) 54.9%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #4
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $26

    The Teams: KC ATL
    Straight-Up Record 8-3 7-4
    Against-the-Spread Record 5-6 7-4
    Over/Under Record 3-8 9-2
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.9-19.5 32.5-27.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #18 #1
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #12 #4
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #10 #12
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #9 #22
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #22
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 61.7%/38.3% #59.3%/40.7%
    Turnover Margin +14 +3

    Injured Players: N/A

    Weather Forecast: N/A

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 36% Kansas City, 64% Atlanta; O/U Bets - 48% Over, 52% Under

    The Breakdown: There is a first for the year - a double "N/A" above. The healthiest game of the day (assuming Jeremy Maclin, who practiced Wednesday plays), looks like one of the best matchups as well. The Chiefs stay in games. Kansas City has only lost by more than one touchdown once in the last 25 games (four in the last 44) and by more than a field goal in just three others. Atlanta is very good in pass offense (Kansas City has a top ten pass defense) and is flawed pretty much everywhere else (below average against the run and the pass and just average running the ball and in special teams). Look for Kansas City to exploit those weakness, not hurt itself and stay in yet another game for the duration.

    Boxscore: Kansas City Chiefs, 25 @ Atlanta Falcons, 27

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Denver Broncos -5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Covers 52.9%), UNDER 41 (Covers 58.3%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Normal

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Denver 21.2 - Jacksonville 15.2
    SU Pick and Win%: Denver wins 66.0%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #3
    ATS Pick and Win%: Denver Broncos -5 covers 52.9%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $5
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (41) 58.3%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #1
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $62

    The Teams: DEN JAC
    Straight-Up Record 7-4 2-9
    Against-the-Spread Record 7-4 4-6
    Over/Under Record 5-6 7-4
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 24.2-19.9 19.5-26.6
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #10 #16
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #20 #28
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #27 #23
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #1 #10
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #13 #17
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 57.9%/42.1% #64.8%/35.2%
    Turnover Margin +4 -15

    Injured Players: Derek Wolfe, DE, Denver Broncos, Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars, Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 67 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 93% Denver, 7% Jacksonville; O/U Bets - 20% Over, 80% Under

    The Breakdown: With the Denver quarterback banged-up and seemingly every offensive weapon for the Jaguars injured to some degree, it is difficult to expect either offense to succeed. Denver has more weapons and the better defense. Whether Trevor Siemian (as expected) or Paxton Lynch starts, Denver should win this win convincingly (for a road NFL team) in a low scoring outcome.

    Boxscore: Denver Broncos, 21 @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 15

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Houston Texans +6.5 @ Green Bay Packers (Covers 50.7%), UNDER 45.5 (Covers 50.1%)
    ATS Play Type: Not Playable
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Houston 19.6 - Green Bay 25.8
    SU Pick and Win%: Green Bay wins 66.0%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #4
    ATS Pick and Win%: Houston Texans +6.5 covers 50.7%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #13
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (45.5) 50.1%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #15
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: HOU GB
    Straight-Up Record 6-5 5-6
    Against-the-Spread Record 5-5 3-8
    Over/Under Record 5-6 6-5
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 17.6-21.5 24.9-26.3
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #21 #17
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #29 #15
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #6 #8
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #12 #27
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #23 #12
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 57.5%/42.5% #65.8%/34.2%
    Turnover Margin -9 -5

    Injured Players: Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans, Jaelen Strong, WR, Houston Texans, J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans

    Weather Forecast: Light snow. 33 degrees. Wind 10-15 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 9% Houston, 91% Green Bay; O/U Bets - 88% Over, 12% Under

    The Breakdown: More than 90% of the action thus far has been on the Packers. After looking like they were "back" on Monday Night Football and now playing at home against the league's worst starting QB (qualified - at least 25% of team snaps to-date), that reaction makes sense. However, Houston has an elite pass defense that may get an additional boost from some wind, snow and sleet at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Meanwhile, every starting linebacker for the Packers is out or questionable for this matchup. It's a "no pick, no pick" on the current lines. Look for potential value to show up later in the week on the Texans (use the Play Analyzer).

    Boxscore: Houston Texans, 20 @ Green Bay Packers, 26

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Baltimore Ravens -3 vs Miami Dolphins (Covers 50.1%), UNDER 40.5 (Covers 50.1%)
    ATS Play Type: Not Playable
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Miami 18.7 - Baltimore 21.7
    SU Pick and Win%: Baltimore wins 58.4%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #7
    ATS Pick and Win%: Baltimore Ravens -3 covers 50.1%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #14
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (40.5) 50.1%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #14
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: MIA BAL
    Straight-Up Record 7-4 6-5
    Against-the-Spread Record 6-5 5-6
    Over/Under Record 7-4 3-8
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.6-21.8 19.8-18.3
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #25 #28
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #11 #26
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #3 #25
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #11 #3
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #27 #1
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 56.9%/43.1% #64.0%/36.0%
    Turnover Margin +2 +4

    Injured Players: Crockett Gillmore, TE, Baltimore Ravens, Jimmy Smith, CB, Baltimore Ravens

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 43 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 72% Miami, 28% Baltimore; O/U Bets - 31% Over, 69% Under

    The Breakdown: Another "no pick, no pick" on the spread and total, this game will be really interesting to watch as the big play Miami Dolphins offense that has steadily improved as the offensive line has gotten healthier gets to face a defense that ranks in the top three among those playing this week against the run and the pass. Stay away for now, but tune in to see which squad wins that important battle.

    Boxscore: Miami Dolphins, 19 @ Baltimore Ravens, 22

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 4:05 PM ET:

    Buffalo Bills +3 @ Oakland Raiders (Covers 57.6%), OVER 49 (Covers 56.4%)
    ATS Play Type: Normal
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Buffalo 27.2 - Oakland 26.3
    SU Pick and Win%: Buffalo wins 51.3%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #15
    ATS Pick and Win%: Buffalo Bills +3 covers 57.6%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #2
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $55
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (49) 56.4%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #2
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $42

    The Teams: BUF OAK
    Straight-Up Record 6-5 9-2
    Against-the-Spread Record 6-4 7-4
    Over/Under Record 8-3 9-2
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 25.5-21.5 27.9-25.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #19 #14
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #21 #7
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #1 #5
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #16 #28
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #18 #24
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 51.7%/48.3% #60.3%/39.7%
    Turnover Margin +8 +10

    Injured Players: Percy Harvin, WR, Buffalo Bills, Walter Powell, WR, Buffalo Bills, Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills, David Amerson, CB, Oakland Raiders, Shilique Calhoun, LB, Oakland Raiders

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 59 degrees. Wind 8-12 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 37% Buffalo, 63% Oakland; O/U Bets - 57% Over, 43% Under

    The Breakdown: Oakland is not very good. The Raiders, who currently rank #16 in our NFL Power Rankings, have only outgained opponents on a per-play basis once all season and only outgained opponents overall three times on the year. That's a resume generally indicative of a team that is 2-9 rather than 9-2. Though they are in a good enough spot right now to remain in playoff contention, a regression is likely coming for the Raiders. Last week, the Raiders narrowly edged out a victory at home against Carolina, an efficient, run-oriented as the Panthers +4 covered as the Lock of the Week. It's not the Lock this week (that's on Monday), but the Bills should win outright in a similar scenario. In this case, Buffalo is an efficient, run-oriented team with a better all-around defense than Carolina (sans Luke Kuechly). Buffalo outgains opponents by 1.2 yards-per-carry on the ground this season and runs the ball almost as often as it throws. The Raiders give up 4.6 yards-per-carry, third worst in the league. That is a matchup win that could lead to a Bills' victory as projected.

    Boxscore: Buffalo Bills, 27 @ Oakland Raiders, 26

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 4:25 PM ET:

    San Diego Chargers -3.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Covers 53.2%), OVER 47.5 (Covers 50.4%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Tampa Bay 21.5 - San Diego 26.3
    SU Pick and Win%: San Diego wins 61.3%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #6
    ATS Pick and Win%: San Diego Chargers -3.5 covers 53.2%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #9
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $9
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47.5) 50.4%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #12
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: TB SD
    Straight-Up Record 6-5 5-6
    Against-the-Spread Record 6-5 7-4
    Over/Under Record 6-5 8-3
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 22.6-24.0 28.5-26.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #9 #5
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #17 #9
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #18 #28
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #23 #14
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #8 #7
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 57.7%/42.3% #59.9%/40.1%
    Turnover Margin +2 0

    Injured Players: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Evan Smith, C, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jatavis Brown, LB, San Diego Chargers, Brandon Flowers, CB, San Diego Chargers

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 71 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 66% Tampa Bay, 34% San Diego; O/U Bets - 99% Over, 1% Under

    The Breakdown: Two teams with underrated defenses and quarterbacks prone to throwing the ball deep (and succeeding at a relatively high rate) face each other with perfect conditions this week. A win by Tampa Bay against Seattle is likely pushing the bet percentages in the Buccaneers' favor, yet the Chargers have the better pass offense, have played a tougher schedule, have the more well-rounded defense and are playing at home. Plus, with a relatively high scoring game likely laden with (passing) touchdowns, a win by more than a field goal becomes even more likely than usual.

    Boxscore: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 22 @ San Diego Chargers, 26

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 4:25 PM ET:

    Washington Redskins +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals (Covers 51.4%), OVER 49 (Covers 52.8%)
    ATS Play Type: Not Playable
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Washington 24.5 - Arizona 26.4
    SU Pick and Win%: Arizona wins 54.6%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #11
    ATS Pick and Win%: Washington Redskins +2.5 covers 51.4%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #11
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (49) 52.8%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #9
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $4

    The Teams: WAS ARI
    Straight-Up Record 6-4 4-6
    Against-the-Spread Record 8-3 3-8
    Over/Under Record 9-2 5-6
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 25.5-24.0 22.3-20.7
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #12 #22
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #3 #25
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #9 #14
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #4
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #29 #9
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 62.2%/37.8% #63.7%/36.3%
    Turnover Margin +2 -1

    Injured Players: John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals, Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals, Ed Stinson, DE, Arizona Cardinals

    Weather Forecast: N/A

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 40% Washington, 60% Arizona; O/U Bets - 74% Over, 26% Under

    The Breakdown: For me, this fits into a similar boat as Baltimore vs. Miami. Though we do not have a pick on the side (and just a very light play on the total), I am intrigued with the outcome in that both teams seem to be underperforming their efficiency metrics. Arizona has outgained opponents by 0.6 yards-per-play and is just 4-6. Washington has outgained opponents by 0.6 yards-per-play (slightly better than Washington when not rounded) and is just 6-4. Furthermore, the Redskins' passing offense and Arizona pass defense have dominated in most metrics, yet neither has led to the victories normally associated with doing that. Stay away from the side (for now) and find out what wins out on Sunday afternoon.

    Boxscore: Washington Redskins, 24 @ Arizona Cardinals, 26

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 4:25 PM ET:

    Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs New York Giants (Covers 51.3%), OVER 49 (Covers 52.3%)
    ATS Play Type: Not Playable
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: New York 22.0 - Pittsburgh 28.5
    SU Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh wins 65.8%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #5
    ATS Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh Steelers -6 covers 51.3%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #12
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (49) 52.3%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #10
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: NYG PIT
    Straight-Up Record 8-3 6-5
    Against-the-Spread Record 6-5 6-5
    Over/Under Record 3-8 3-8
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 21.0-19.4 24.2-20.2
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #27 #11
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #14 #6
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #29 #4
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #7 #19
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #10
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 62.7%/37.3% #62.8%/37.2%
    Turnover Margin -5 +4

    Injured Players: Nat Berhe, S, New York Giants, Brett Jones, C, New York Giants, Marshall Newhouse, T, New York Giants, Xavier Grimble, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers, Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers, Shamarko Thomas, S, Pittsburgh Steelers, DeAngelo Williams, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

    Weather Forecast: Light rain. 39 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 52% New York, 48% Pittsburgh; O/U Bets - 77% Over, 23% Under

    The Breakdown: By team market, records and potenial playoff impact, this is an intriguing game. It also appears to be a game that sportsbooks and the betting markets have pegged. Both teams throw the ball 63% of the time and have an elite wide receiver. Tune in for the fantasy implicataions, rather than the wagers.

    Boxscore: New York Giants, 22 @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 28

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Sunday, December 4 at 8:30 PM ET:

    Carolina Panthers +7 @ Seattle Seahawks (Covers 50.0%), UNDER 44.5 (Covers 53.8%)
    ATS Play Type: Not Playable
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Carolina 17.6 - Seattle 24.6
    SU Pick and Win%: Seattle wins 68.4%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #2
    ATS Pick and Win%: Carolina Panthers +7 covers 50.0%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #15
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (44.5) 53.8%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $15

    The Teams: CAR SEA
    Straight-Up Record 4-7 7-3
    Against-the-Spread Record 3-7 5-6
    Over/Under Record 5-6 5-6
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 25.1-25.5 20.4-17.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #8 #13
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #18 #8
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #24 #20
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #17 #5
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #2 #3
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 57.7%/42.3% #60.4%/39.6%
    Turnover Margin -5 +5

    Injured Players: Luke Kuechly, LB, Carolina Panthers, Brock Coyle, LB, Seattle Seahawks, C.J. Prosise, RB, Seattle Seahawks, DeShawn Shead, CB, Seattle Seahawks, Earl Thomas, S, Seattle Seahawks, Luke Willson, TE, Seattle Seahawks

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 43 degrees. Wind 10-20 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 59% Carolina, 41% Seattle; O/U Bets - 17% Over, 83% Under

    The Breakdown: This is the sixth time these NFC representatives in the last three Super Bowls have played in the last four seasons. Only one of those previous five games was decided by more than a touchdown. This appears likely to be decided by right at a TD, which coincided with the spread. With two of the top three defenses against the run on the field (even with Luke Kuechly likely to miss), weather likely to make an impact and Seahawk games this season already averaging just 37 points a game, look for the UNDER (44) to retain value.

    Boxscore: Carolina Panthers, 18 @ Seattle Seahawks, 25

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

    Monday, December 5 at 8:30 PM ET:

    New York Jets +1.5 vs Indianapolis Colts (Covers 60.2%), OVER 49.5 (Covers 53.9%)
    ATS Play Type: Normal
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Indianapolis 24.4 - New York 27.7
    SU Pick and Win%: New York wins 57.3%
    Week 13 SU Confidence Rank: #9
    ATS Pick and Win%: New York Jets +1.5 covers 60.2%
    Week 13 ATS Confidence Rank: #1
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $82
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (49.5) 53.9%
    Week 13 O/U Confidence Rank: #6
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $16

    The Teams: IND NYJ
    Straight-Up Record 5-6 3-8
    Against-the-Spread Record 5-5 5-6
    Over/Under Record 7-4 5-6
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 24.5-27.4 17.8-24.2
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #26 #4
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #13 #23
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #7 #11
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #29 #20
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #28 #4
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 62.7%/37.3% #58.7%/41.3%
    Turnover Margin -5 -13

    Injured Players: Nick Mangold, C, New York Jets, Marcus Williams, CB, New York Jets

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 41 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 75% Indianapolis, 25% New York; O/U Bets - 29% Over, 71% Under

    The Breakdown: Sure, Andrew Luck, who we expect to play in this game, is a better quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick, but where do the Colts as a team have the advantage needed in this matchup to be expected to go on the road and win on Monday night?

    Indianapolis ranks among the bottom five in pass, allowing 7.6 yards-per-pass with a league low interception rate of 1.0% and a sack on just 5% of all dropbacks. They also rank in the bottom five in run defense by giving up 4.6 yards-per-carry and forcing a fumble on fewer than 2% of all carries.

    Offensively, Frank Gore is in the top ten in rush percentage for his team, yet only averages 3.8 yards-per-carry (only Todd Gurley has been less efficient of the 21 backs who carry the ball more than 45% of the time their team runs the ball). Through the air, Phillip Dorsett, Dwayne Allen and Donte Moncrief has been disappointments, while the line grades in the bottom five in pass blocking and Andrew Luck grades as just the 12th best QB on the year. The Colts have been outgained on the year by 0.8 yards-per-play. None of that is really "good."

    New York also struggles agaisnt the pass, though not as much and is much better against the run. Offensively, the Jets are more balanced and, though they turn the ball over at a high rate (some of which is a fluke, some of it is legitimate and some of it should not matter against a team that does not force turnovers well), the Jets have actually gained more yards-per-play than the Colts on the year.

    Boxscore: Indianapolis Colts, 24 @ New York Jets, 28

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    DAL @ MIN DET @ NO PHI @ CIN SF @ CHI LA @ NE KC @ ATL DEN @ JAC HOU @ GB MIA @ BAL BUF @ OAK TB @ SD WAS @ ARI NYG @ PIT CAR @ SEA IND @ NYJ

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