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    NFL Picks Week 2

    Last Updated: 9/10/2014 at 8:00 PM ET
    NFL Picks Pages:
    Week 2 Analysis
    September 11: Predictalator Picks
    September 14: Predictalator Picks
    September 15: Predictalator Picks
    Play Analyzer
    Week 2 Fantasy Projections
    Week 2 Futures Picks
    Trend Machine
    Buy Picks

    If you are getting a different line than our projection or you are interested in teaser plays or other exotics that use different lines, we've got you covered. Simply access the Play Analyzer, which allows you to see picks at current consensus lines or input your own against-the-spread and over/under lines. Sign up for weekly Play Analyzer email alerts on Sunday mornings here. Also, to know who we project to be OUT of each game, check out our injuries information. The Play Value ($) assumes a "normal" $50 play. And lastly, all against-the-spread, over/under or straight-up trends referenced below can be found in the Trend Machine.

    Thursday, September 11 at 8:25 PM ET:

    Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 @ Baltimore Ravens (Covers 50.2%), OVER 44 (Covers 55.7%)
    ATS Play Type: Not Playable
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Pittsburgh 22.5 - Baltimore 24.9
    SU Pick and Win%: Baltimore wins 55.7%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #14
    ATS Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 covers 50.2%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #16
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (44) 55.7%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #5
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $35

    The Teams: PIT BAL
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 0-1
    Over/Under Record 1-0 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 30.0-27.0 16.0-23.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #29 #20
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #17 #22
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #28 #24
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #15 #18
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #26 #4
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 58.2%/41.8% #76.5%/23.5%
    Turnover Margin -1 -2

    Injured Players: Dri Archer, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, Brice McCain, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers, Lance Moore, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers, Terrence Cody, NT, Baltimore Ravens, Will Hill, CB, Baltimore Ravens, Lardarius Webb, CB, Baltimore Ravens

    Weather Forecast: Rain up to 0.5 inches. 78 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 74% Pittsburgh, 26% Baltimore; O/U Bets - 75% Over, 25% Under

    The Breakdown: The lone against-the-spread pick that is not playable this week, four straight Ravens - Steelers games have been decided by three points or less. Over the last decade, in 21 meetings, more than half (12) of the matchups between these two AFC North opponents have had a margin of a field goal or fewer. These games tend to be toss-up games straight-up and against-the-spread and this one is no different. That being said, there is some value in the OVER. Long believed to be physical, run-heavy, defensive-oriented teams, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are anything but that this year. These two teams combined for 97 pass attempts in Week 1. Each also allowed over six yards-per-play and 380+ yards to its opponent. Plus, five of the last seven games between these teams have gone OVER, signifying that the market is still off-base with the total in this game.

    Boxscore: Pittsburgh Steelers, 23 @ Baltimore Ravens, 25

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Washington Redskins -6 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Covers 56.6%), OVER 43.5 (Covers 54.3%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Jacksonville 18.8 - Washington 27.2
    SU Pick and Win%: Washington wins 70.4%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #3
    ATS Pick and Win%: Washington Redskins -6 covers 56.6%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #4
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $44
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43.5) 54.3%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #7
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $20

    The Teams: JAC WAS
    Straight-Up Record 0-1 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 0-1
    Over/Under Record 0-1 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 17.0-34.0 6.0-17.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #3 #19
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #28 #13
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #32 #5
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #30
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #16 #6
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 64.8%/35.2% #63.5%/36.5%
    Turnover Margin +2 -1

    Injured Players: Johnathan Cyprien, S, Jacksonville Jaguars, Clay Harbor, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars, Austin Pasztor, G, Jacksonville Jaguars, Ace Sanders, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, Stephen Bowen, DE, Washington Redskins, Barry Cofield, NT, Washington Redskins, Leonard Hankerson, WR, Washington Redskins, Akeem Jordan, LB, Washington Redskins, Brandon Meriweather, S, Washington Redskins, Tracy Porter, CB, Washington Redskins, Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 72 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 53% Jacksonville, 47% Washington; O/U Bets - 57% Over, 43% Under

    The Breakdown: Washington has never been this big of a favorite in Robert Griffin III's career, a majority of the public is siding with the Jaguars and yet our pick is fairly strong on the Redskins to win by a touchdown or more. While most fans and bettors are reacting to scores from last week's opening games (it's absolutely no surprise to us that, after underdogs went 11-5 ATS in Week 1, we are picking favorites to cover in all but four games), digging deeper into the numbers suggests that perception does not match reality (for this contest and many others this week). Washington out-gained Houston on a per-play basis despite giving up one 76 yard touchdown and a blocked punt return for a score. The Redskins turned the ball over twice within the Texans' ten yard-line. That's four massive, flukish plays that went against Washington and yet the Redskins were still very much in the game on the road into the fourth quarter.

    Meanwhile, the most surprising result from the first half of games in Week 1 was that Jacksonville took a 17-0 lead at Philadelphia. Regardless of the final score, I assumed the fact that that happened would give value to fading the Jaguars this week. Consider that Philadelphia scored 34 unanswered points and averaged just less than one more yard-per-play than the Jaguars over the course of the game - and that was without three starting offensive linemen for the Eagles much of the game.

    Jacksonville has the weakest talent in the NFL and that was obvious in the second half last week. Washington has an above average roster and could have easily won in Week 1. Laying less than a touchdown at home with an above average team against the worst in the league, we'll give the points.

    Boxscore: Jacksonville Jaguars, 19 @ Washington Redskins, 27

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 1:00 PM ET:

    New Orleans Saints -6.5 @ Cleveland Browns (Covers 56.5%), OVER 47.5 (Covers 50.6%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: New Orleans 28.3 - Cleveland 19.5
    SU Pick and Win%: New Orleans wins 71.8%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #2
    ATS Pick and Win%: New Orleans Saints -6.5 covers 56.5%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #5
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $43
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47.5) 50.6%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #15
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: NO CLE
    Straight-Up Record 0-1 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 1-0
    Over/Under Record 1-0 1-0
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 34.0-37.0 27.0-30.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #32 #11
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #5 #31
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #18 #13
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #6 #11
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #31 #14
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 60.0%/40.0% #53.1%/46.9%
    Turnover Margin -1 +1

    Injured Players: Marcus Ball, CB, New Orleans Saints, Khairi Fortt, OL, New Orleans Saints, John Jenkins, DT, New Orleans Saints, Erik Lorig, RB, New Orleans Saints, Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints, Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns, Paul McQuistan, T, Cleveland Browns, Marlon Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns, Ben Tate, RB, Cleveland Browns

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 65 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 90% New Orleans, 10% Cleveland; O/U Bets - 86% Over, 14% Under

    The Breakdown: We will side with 90% of the public in backing the Saints yet again this week. New Orleans dominated the first half against Atlanta on the road last week. The Saints continued that dominance on the offensive side of the ball throughout the second half, but an interception in the end zone and a fumble in overtime cost New Orleans its chances to win and cover the spread. The Falcons' Matt Ryan overcame a decent pass rush to routinely find big play receivers like Julio Jones downfield when it was necessary. Brian Hoyer may be better than most think, but he is no Matt Ryan. Furthermore, with Josh Gordon suspended and Jordan Cameron banged-up, the Browns do not have the weapons to threaten New Orleans. The Saints were unlucky to build a lead last week against a team that had the firepower and the bounce of the ball on its side to come back. Obviously, luck could be on the Browns' side, but it's tough to count on that, especially when the team lacks a way to stretch the field and hit on explosive offensive plays. The Saints are another elite team in a mismatch against a below average squad on the road.

    Boxscore: New Orleans Saints, 28 @ Cleveland Browns, 20

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Carolina Panthers -3 vs Detroit Lions (Covers 54.1%), UNDER 43.5 (Covers 52.5%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Detroit 18.7 - Carolina 23.3
    SU Pick and Win%: Carolina wins 61.4%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #10
    ATS Pick and Win%: Carolina Panthers -3 covers 54.1%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #9
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $18
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (43.5) 52.5%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #10
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $1

    The Teams: DET CAR
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 1-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-0 1-0
    Over/Under Record 1-0 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 35.0-14.0 20.0-14.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #24 #15
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #11 #23
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #31 #23
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #28 #2
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #15
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 52.4%/47.6% #51.5%/48.5%
    Turnover Margin +2 +3

    Injured Players: Frank Alexander, DE, Carolina Panthers

    Weather Forecast: Light rain possible. 73 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 81% Detroit, 19% Carolina; O/U Bets - 97% Over, 3% Under

    The Breakdown: An impressive win at home on Monday night has turned fans onto the Detroit Lions, but some under-the-radar issues put them in a tough spot this week. Cornerback Bill Bentley is out for the year. Eli Manning and the Giants could not exploit that last week on the road, but that offense was (and is) still trying to figure out its timing and likely would have struggled against any team in the league. The Lions also lost starting right tackle Corey Hilliard for the season, an even bigger blow and poor timing as the Lions travel to face one of the best pass rushes in the league with the Panthers. Carolina gets Cam Newton back and appears much better than expected at wide receiver where rookie Kelvin Benjamin broke out with a great game at Tampa Bay and with Derek Anderson at quarterback last week. Newton himself is 10-4 against-the-spread in his career as a home favorite. His opposition at quarterback, Matthew Stafford is 0-4 against-the-spread after winning by three touchdowns or more in the previous game. These are trends with small sample sizes that are not intended to be predictive, but they do speak to the fact that Detroit, one of the least consistent teams in the league in recent years, tends to be overvalued coming off a big win and that Carolina is better in general than most expect. It's a close one in the numbers. Give the health edge to the Panthers, which should aid the passing game and the pass rush and look for a tight Panthers' win.

    Boxscore: Detroit Lions, 19 @ Carolina Panthers, 23

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Miami Dolphins -1 @ Buffalo Bills (Covers 53.7%), OVER 43 (Covers 54.4%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Miami 24.1 - Buffalo 21.5
    SU Pick and Win%: Miami wins 56.2%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #13
    ATS Pick and Win%: Miami Dolphins -1 covers 53.7%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $14
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43) 54.4%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #6
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $21

    The Teams: MIA BUF
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 1-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-0 1-0
    Over/Under Record 1-0 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 33.0-20.0 23.0-20.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #12 #6
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #19 #32
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #8 #16
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #13
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #28
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 46.5%/53.5% #41.1%/58.9%
    Turnover Margin -1 +2

    Injured Players: Terrence Fede, DE, Miami Dolphins, Reshad Jones, S, Miami Dolphins, Dion Jordan, DE, Miami Dolphins, Koa Misi, LB, Miami Dolphins, Mike Pouncey, C, Miami Dolphins, Jordan Tripp, LB, Miami Dolphins, Billy Turner, T, Miami Dolphins, Philip Wheeler, LB, Miami Dolphins, Nigel Bradham, LB, Buffalo Bills, Stephon Gilmore, CB, Buffalo Bills, Jonathan Meeks, S, Buffalo Bills, Keith Rivers, LB, Buffalo Bills, Lee Smith, TE, Buffalo Bills

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 62 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 77% Miami, 23% Buffalo; O/U Bets - 38% Over, 62% Under

    The Breakdown: Both of these teams had surprise (to say the least) victories in Week 1. For Miami, that could be a sign of things to come (the Dolphins are a decent value pick to win the AFC East at +350). For the Buffalo Bills, there are certainly still some worries. We currently rank the Dolphins 15th in the NFL. Their defensive pass rush is among the top ten in the league and Miami is running at a fast tempo offensively with its new (Knowshon Moreno and Branden Albert) and improved (pretty much everyone else on the offense is a young, improving breakout candidate) weapons. Buffalo comes in 26th overall in our NFL Power Rankings and is outside the top ten in all of our efficiency categories. The Bills have an opportunity with a good running game against a soft Miami defensive interior to put up yards and points early, but this could be another game like Week 1 in which Miami wears down its opponent and the Bills (#32 in passing efficiency in our rankings) do not have the ability to battle back with big plays through the air. Unless Ryan Tannehill hands Buffalo the ball, and thus the game, do not expect another upset win for the Bills.

    Boxscore: Miami Dolphins, 24 @ Buffalo Bills, 22

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Dallas Cowboys +3.5 @ Tennessee Titans (Covers 53.2%), OVER 49 (Covers 56.7%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Dallas 25.9 - Tennessee 27.9
    SU Pick and Win%: Tennessee wins 54.7%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #15
    ATS Pick and Win%: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 covers 53.2%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #11
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $9
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (49) 56.7%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #2
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $45

    The Teams: DAL TEN
    Straight-Up Record 0-1 1-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 1-0
    Over/Under Record 0-1 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 17.0-28.0 26.0-10.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #5 #8
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #12 #18
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #1 #21
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #32 #23
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #27 #11
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 63.5%/36.5% #49.3%/50.7%
    Turnover Margin -4 +3

    Injured Players: Justin Durant, LB, Dallas Cowboys, Jakar Hamilton, CB, Dallas Cowboys, Cameron Lawrence, OL, Dallas Cowboys, Terrell McClain, DT, Dallas Cowboys, Amobi Okoye, DT, Dallas Cowboys, Orlando Scandrick, CB, Dallas Cowboys, Anthony Spencer, DE, Dallas Cowboys, Darrion Weems, T, Dallas Cowboys, Mike Martin, DT, Tennessee Titans

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 77 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 61% Dallas, 39% Tennessee; O/U Bets - 59% Over, 41% Under

    The Breakdown: The OVER looks nice. Each of these teams totaled over 380 yards of offense and topped 5.5 yards-per-play in Week 1. And only one of them plays any defense. Dallas is a consistently strong underdog due to the fact that the public tends to overreact to the Cowboys at either extreme. While Tony Romo's interceptions were egregious and costly decisions, the Cowboys moved the ball effectively against San Francisco and could have done much more, especially on the ground, had they not dug an early hole with turnovers. Tennessee dominated its opponent in a 26-10 win at Kansas City, yet that was against the second weakest offense in the NFL by our talent evaluations (only Jacksonville is worse) and with two Chiefs' starters on defense leaving with a torn achilles. With Ken Whisenhunt calling plays, an above average offensive line, a pair of good young receivers and a healthy, mobile starting quarterback, the Titans should be improved offensively throughout the year. While that may be visible again this week against a terrible defense, Dallas is in a great position to put up points as well. Tennessee ranks 23rd in our defensive rankings and is outside the top ten against the run and pass. There are major areas for strength versus weakness exploitation by both squads. Home field is the only straight-up separator, leading to value getting the hook (+3.5 instead of +3) in the line.

    Boxscore: Dallas Cowboys, 26 @ Tennessee Titans, 28

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Cincinnati Bengals -5 vs Atlanta Falcons (Covers 52.9%), OVER 48.5 (Covers 50.8%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Atlanta 21.5 - Cincinnati 27.6
    SU Pick and Win%: Cincinnati wins 64.8%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #7
    ATS Pick and Win%: Cincinnati Bengals -5 covers 52.9%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #12
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $5
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (48.5) 50.8%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #12
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: ATL CIN
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 1-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-0 1-0
    Over/Under Record 1-0 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 37.0-34.0 23.0-16.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #10 #13
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #6 #10
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #11 #19
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #31 #4
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #29 #20
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 63.8%/36.2% #59.4%/40.6%
    Turnover Margin +1 +2

    Injured Players: Drew Davis, WR, Atlanta Falcons, Jake Matthews, T, Atlanta Falcons, Zeke Motta, S, Atlanta Falcons, Vontaze Burfict, LB, Cincinnati Bengals, Darqueze Dennard, CB, Cincinnati Bengals, Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals, Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, Chris Lewis-Harris, CB, Cincinnati Bengals

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 67 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 79% Atlanta, 21% Cincinnati; O/U Bets - 88% Over, 12% Under

    The Breakdown: Public perception from Week 1 is pushing this line in Atlanta's direction and giving our pick some real value. That is great news and could lead to an even stronger pick later in the week. The Bengals come in just three spots behind the Saints in our Power Rankings and are one of the few teams with a better overall defense and defense against the pass. As noted with the Saints game above, New Orleans consistently put pressure on Matt Ryan, yet Ryan was lucky to find ways to avoid the rush enough to get the ball in hands of great players down the field. This has been a trait for Ryan for much of his career, but it does not always work, especially on the road and now without BOTH expected starting offensive tackles. The Bengals are 8-2-1 against-the-spread as 4.5 point or greater home favorites in the Andy Dalton era. The team has done a great job, particularly at home, of finding opponents biggest issues and exploiting them in easy wins. Atlanta has some solid strengths (for which Cincinnati should have the antidote), but its weaknesses (31st against the pass, lack of pass rush, weak offensive line, struggle outside on the road) should aid the Bengals to a big victory.

    Boxscore: Atlanta Falcons, 21 @ Cincinnati Bengals, 28

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 1:00 PM ET:

    New England Patriots -3 @ Minnesota Vikings (Covers 52.5%), UNDER 49 (Covers 52.6%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: New England 25.7 - Minnesota 21.7
    SU Pick and Win%: New England wins 59.6%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #12
    ATS Pick and Win%: New England Patriots -3 covers 52.5%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #14
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $1
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (49) 52.6%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #9
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $2

    The Teams: NE MIN
    Straight-Up Record 0-1 1-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 1-0
    Over/Under Record 1-0 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 20.0-33.0 34.0-6.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #14 #18
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #14 #21
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #12 #2
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #21
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #23 #8
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 75.0%/25.0% #45.6%/54.4%
    Turnover Margin +1 +2

    Injured Players: Brandon Browner, CB, New England Patriots, Michael Buchanan, DE, New England Patriots, Chris Jones, DT, New England Patriots, Zach Line, RB, Minnesota Vikings, Michael Mauti, ML, Minnesota Vikings, Xavier Rhodes, CB, Minnesota Vikings, Jerome Simpson, WR, Minnesota Vikings, Brandon Watts, OL, Minnesota Vikings

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 60 degrees. Winds 5-10 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 69% New England, 31% Minnesota; O/U Bets - 75% Over, 25% Under

    The Breakdown: It is rare this early, without any major injuries for us to fade a team for which we had a strong season win total OVER pick and support a team for which we picked UNDER on season win totals. But that is the power of Week 1. The Vikings beat up on the hapless Rams. The Patriots were dominated in the second half by the upstart Dolphins. And, all of the sudden, one of the few elite rosters in the league is "just" a three point favorite on the road against a young squad at least a year away from serious contention. Of course, New England -3 is just a $1 play for a normal $50 player and there is a decent chance of a push, but the lean is notable nonetheless.

    Boxscore: New England Patriots, 26 @ Minnesota Vikings, 22

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 1:00 PM ET:

    New York Giants +2 vs Arizona Cardinals (Covers 52.5%), UNDER 43 (Covers 56.6%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Arizona 20.2 - New York 19.2
    SU Pick and Win%: Arizona wins 53.0%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #16
    ATS Pick and Win%: New York Giants +2 covers 52.5%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #15
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $1
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (43) 56.6%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #3
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $44

    The Teams: ARI NYG
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 0-1
    Over/Under Record 0-1 1-0
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 18.0-17.0 14.0-35.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #23 #4
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #15 #24
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #27 #30
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #8 #12
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #24 #12
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 60.0%/40.0% #61.4%/38.6%
    Turnover Margin -1 -2

    Injured Players: Tyrann Mathieu, CB, Arizona Cardinals, Alex Okafor, DE, Arizona Cardinals, Lyle Sendlein, C, Arizona Cardinals, Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants, Eric Herman, G, New York Giants, Jayron Hosley, CB, New York Giants

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 72 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 92% Arizona, 8% New York; O/U Bets - 6% Over, 94% Under

    The Breakdown: The weakest playable ATS pick of the week, this a situational lean. The Giants are coming off of an ugly Monday Night football loss. Arizona travels across the country from West to East to play in the early game on a short week of rest. Arizona is the better team and is projected to win. The straight-up pick is essentially a coin toss for the Predictalator, giving some value to the Giants getting two points at home. New York's roster is exponentially better than the team looked on Monday. Expect better play on the field this week. This is worth monitoring (and may gain notable value in the Play Analyzer Alert for Sunday morning). Over 90% of the public is the on the Cardinals. If the line moves, we could see more tangible value. If it does not, that tells us something as well.

    Boxscore: Arizona Cardinals, 20 @ New York Giants, 19

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 4:05 PM ET:

    St. Louis Rams +6 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Covers 56.7%), OVER 37 (Covers 59.0%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Normal

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: St. Louis 19.2 - Tampa Bay 22.7
    SU Pick and Win%: Tampa Bay wins 59.8%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #11
    ATS Pick and Win%: St. Louis Rams +6 covers 56.7%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #3
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $45
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (37) 59.0%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #1
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $69

    The Teams: STL TB
    Straight-Up Record 0-1 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 0-1
    Over/Under Record 0-1 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 6.0-34.0 14.0-20.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #25 #22
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #26 #20
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #22 #15
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #16
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #2
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 65.1%/34.9% #69.1%/30.9%
    Turnover Margin -2 -3

    Injured Players: Stedman Bailey, WR, St. Louis Rams, Shaun Hill, QB, St. Louis Rams, Chris Long, DE, St. Louis Rams, Trumaine Johnson, CB, St. Louis Rams, Barrett Jones, G, St. Louis Rams, Johnthan Banks, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, William Gholston, DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Logan Mankins, G, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Brad McDougald, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Rashaan Melvin, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Louis Murphy, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Weather Forecast: Scattered thunderstorms. 89 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 18% St. Louis, 82% Tampa Bay; O/U Bets - 33% Over, 67% Under

    The Breakdown: My favorite trend of the week from John Ewing's Week 2 Trend Report (highly recommended weekly reading): All teams coming off 21+ point losses are 276-208-18 (57% ATS) as underdogs the next week. Here is another trend: Tampa Bay has not been at least a six point favorite in any game since December of 2012 (and they lost that game to Philadelphia outright). It's been almost four years since the Buccaneers were six point or greater favorites and covered the spread. We like, conceptually, what Tampa Bay has done on offense and what new head coach Lovie Smith should be able to do to the defense, but to expect the team to win by a touchdown or more in any scenario right now is difficult. In this case, Tampa Bay is taking on the 11th ranked defense, which has the one of the league's best defensive front fours (even without Chris Long) and a top five run defense (note above that Logan Mankins is out at guard for this game). This is not an endorsement of Austin Davis, our 14th ranked quarterback in the 2012 draft class. The numbers just do not believe strongly in the Buccaneers offense in this spot either.

    Boxscore: St. Louis Rams, 19 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 4:05 PM ET:

    Seattle Seahawks -5.5 @ San Diego Chargers (Covers 56.5%), OVER 44.5 (Covers 50.7%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Seattle 26.4 - San Diego 18.5
    SU Pick and Win%: Seattle wins 69.6%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #4
    ATS Pick and Win%: Seattle Seahawks -5.5 covers 56.5%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #6
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $43
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (44.5) 50.7%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #14
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: SEA SD
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-0 1-0
    Over/Under Record 1-0 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 36.0-16.0 17.0-18.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #9 #7
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #4 #3
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #3 #29
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #1 #24
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #17
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 43.9%/56.1% #60.0%/40.0%
    Turnover Margin 0 +1

    Injured Players: Cooper Helfet, TE, Seattle Seahawks, Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks, Jahleel Addae, S, San Diego Chargers, Jeromey Clary, T, San Diego Chargers, Chris Davis, CB, San Diego Chargers, Nick Hardwick, C, San Diego Chargers

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 88 degrees. Winds 5-10 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 95% Seattle, 5% San Diego; O/U Bets - 28% Over, 72% Under

    The Breakdown: This projection is actually siding with the public ("squares") over the professionals ("sharps"), but with good reason. Seattle is the most well rounded team in the NFL. The Seahawks can be dominant in every phase of the game and are unquestionably among the top two teams in the league. In today's top-heavy NFL, such teams (currently the Seahawks and Broncos) deserve to be at least a six point favorite in just about every situation except for when they play each other. There is a perception that the Seahawks are great at home and bad on the road. Half of that is true. Seattle is great at home, but not so bad on the road. In Russell Wilson's two full seasons with the team, Seattle is 11-6-2 against-the-spread on the road.

    Seattle ranks in the top six overall in all of our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. The Seahawks are healthy in general and have had extra time to prepare for this game after playing on the opening Thursday night of the season. San Diego has a top five pass efficiency offense (so did/does Green Bay), yet ranks in the bottom five in the league in run efficiency and is below average defensively against the run and the pass. The Chargers have recently lost two starting offensive linemen and have to host Seattle on a short week after playing late Monday night. Everything but the venue (which is clearly not as big a deal as it is often made out to be) is in Seattle's favor for this game. The Seahawks should be able to hold Philip Rivers in check (even more so than Arizona was able to do) and win this game easily.

    Boxscore: Seattle Seahawks, 26 @ San Diego Chargers, 19

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 4:25 PM ET:

    Houston Texans -3 @ Oakland Raiders (Covers 56.9%), OVER 39.5 (Covers 50.5%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Houston 22.6 - Oakland 17.1
    SU Pick and Win%: Houston wins 64.7%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #8
    ATS Pick and Win%: Houston Texans -3 covers 56.9%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #1
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $47
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (39.5) 50.5%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #16
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: HOU OAK
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-0 1-0
    Over/Under Record 0-1 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 17.0-6.0 14.0-19.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #26 #17
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #25 #29
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #20 #26
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #10 #29
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #18 #10
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 41.1%/58.9% #69.4%/30.6%
    Turnover Margin +1 +2

    Injured Players: Jadeveon Clowney, OL, Houston Texans, Garrett Graham, TE, Houston Texans, Shiloh Keo, S, Houston Texans, Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Oakland Raiders, D.J. Hayden, CB, Oakland Raiders, Taiwan Jones, RB, Oakland Raiders, Justin Tuck, DE, Oakland Raiders

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 67 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 73% Houston, 27% Oakland; O/U Bets - 57% Over, 43% Under

    The Breakdown: Technically, Houston -3 at Oakland is our "Lock of the Week" for Week 2. A couple quick notes on that: The Texans cover just 0.2% of the time more than the second and third strongest picks and just 0.6% of the time more than the seventh strongest against-the-spread pick of the week. Only six dollars separates our recommended wager for a $50 player in this game from the seventh game on the board for Week 2. All games after Thursday night have a playable side (diversification is your friend in the NFL and especially this week). We are fully endorsing Houston -3 as being around 56.9% likely to hit (the chance of a push is evenly distributed in the confidence interval) and bet recommendation. Still, this is our strongest opinion of the week.

    Before the season, Houston projected to finish with the sixth best record in the AFC, earning a wild card berth in the playoffs. The Texans still project to do just that. Oakland, on the other hand, is only favored in one game all season. This is not it. In the scenario in which the likely playoff team faces a clear bottom three NFL roster, even on the road in the "Black Hole," the playoff team deserves to be more than a field goal favorite. Speaking of the Black Hole, Oakland is just 27-52-1 against-the-spread at home in the last decade (16-29-1 ATS at home as an underdog). That's not much of a home field advantage. The Texans have the seventh ranked overall defense in our NFL Power Rankings and the best defensive player in football taking on a rookie quarterback and an offensive line that is still shuffling through players (not to mention running backs who combined for less than two yards-per-carry last week). Garbage time and a missed two-point conversion got Oakland a cover in New York last week. Back door covers like that are far rarer on three point spreads. Houston should win and by enough to cover the spread.

    Boxscore: Houston Texans, 23 @ Oakland Raiders, 17

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 4:25 PM ET:

    Denver Broncos -13 vs Kansas City Chiefs (Covers 56.7%), OVER 52 (Covers 50.7%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Kansas City 18.6 - Denver 33.9
    SU Pick and Win%: Denver wins 84.7%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #1
    ATS Pick and Win%: Denver Broncos -13 covers 56.7%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #2
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $45
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (52) 50.7%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #13
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: KC DEN
    Straight-Up Record 0-1 1-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 0-0
    Over/Under Record 0-1 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 10.0-26.0 31.0-24.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #27 #21
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #27 #1
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #9 #25
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #22 #9
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #9
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 69.6%/30.4% #53.6%/46.4%
    Turnover Margin -3 +2

    Injured Players: Jeff Allen, G, Kansas City Chiefs, Donald Stephenson, T, Kansas City Chiefs, De'Anthony Thomas, RB, Kansas City Chiefs, Ben Garland, G, Denver Broncos, Steven Johnson, LB, Denver Broncos, Matt Prater, K, Denver Broncos, Danny Trevathan, LB, Denver Broncos, Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 74 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 23% Kansas City, 77% Denver; O/U Bets - 65% Over, 35% Under

    The Breakdown: In the last decade, favorites of 13 or more points are just 54-65-2 against-the-spread. Favorites of 13 or more points who are not Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos' quarterback are 50-64-2 against-the-spread. Manning is 4-1 ATS in such situations since joining his new team. The situation is ripe for another easy victory. Denver has a top ten pass and run efficiency defense and the best passing attack and overall offense in the game. Kansas City has one offensive player better than average at his position (Jamaal Charles) and a defense that just lost two critical starters to achilles injuries. Since beginning last season 9-0, the Chiefs are 2-7 straight-up, including two convincing losses to Denver when they were healthier and much more talented on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Denver added T.J. Ward, Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware and Emmanuel Sanders to a roster that also now sees Ryan Clady, Von Miller and Chris Harris (all seven of those players are average to above average relative to position in the league) healthy. Motivation to win by a certain amount when the straight-up outcome is not in doubt is the only concern keeping this from a stronger play.

    Boxscore: Kansas City Chiefs, 19 @ Denver Broncos, 34

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 4:25 PM ET:

    New York Jets +8 @ Green Bay Packers (Covers 54.8%), UNDER 46 (Covers 53.7%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: New York 18.7 - Green Bay 25.0
    SU Pick and Win%: Green Bay wins 66.3%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #6
    ATS Pick and Win%: New York Jets +8 covers 54.8%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #8
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $25
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (46) 53.7%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $14

    The Teams: NYJ GB
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 0-1
    Over/Under Record 0-1 1-0
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 19.0-14.0 16.0-36.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #30 #1
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #30 #7
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #10 #14
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #14 #17
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #1 #30
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 47.7%/52.3% #63.2%/36.8%
    Turnover Margin -2 0

    Injured Players: Josh Bush, S, New York Jets, Ikemefuna Enemkpali, DE, New York Jets, Bryan Bulaga, T, Green Bay Packers, Demetri Goodson, CB, Green Bay Packers, J.C. Tretter, T, Green Bay Packers

    Weather Forecast: Light rain possible. 61 degrees. Winds 5-10 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 16% New York, 84% Green Bay; O/U Bets - 84% Over, 16% Under

    The Breakdown: This is a great time for the Jets to take on the Packers. The unquestioned strength of the New York Jets is a defensive line loaded with talent and athleticism. This week, that unit, will face a Packers' offensive line without three starters. That clearly hurt Aaron Rodgers' ability to have time to move the ball effectively at Seattle last week and it could be worse for Green Bay's offense this week. In that case, we do not really need to count on Geno Smith and the Jets' offense to do much in order to keep the game within one touchdown for the cover. In his career, always backed by an above average defense, Jets' head coach Rex Ryan is 6-2-1 against-the-spread as an eight point or greater underdog. Over that same span, 7.5 to ten point underdogs have covered the number 55% of the time (206 games; similar percentages can be found for 7.5 to ten point dogs all-time in Week 2 and when total is less than 46.5). The Jets defense can keep most games within a touchdown.

    Boxscore: New York Jets, 19 @ Green Bay Packers, 25

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Sunday, September 14 at 8:30 PM ET:

    San Francisco 49ers -7 vs Chicago Bears (Covers 52.8%), OVER 48.5 (Covers 56.2%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Chicago 22.3 - San Francisco 30.4
    SU Pick and Win%: San Francisco wins 68.7%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #5
    ATS Pick and Win%: San Francisco 49ers -7 covers 52.8%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #13
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $4
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (48.5) 56.2%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #4
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $40

    The Teams: CHI SF
    Straight-Up Record 0-1 1-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-1 1-0
    Over/Under Record 0-1 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 20.0-23.0 28.0-17.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #28 #16
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #9 #2
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #7 #4
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #27 #7
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #32 #22
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 73.9%/26.1% #44.4%/55.6%
    Turnover Margin -2 +4

    Injured Players: Tony Fiammetta, RB, Chicago Bears, Roberto Garza, C, Chicago Bears, Matt Slauson, G, Chicago Bears, Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears, NaVorro Bowman, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Chris Culliver, CB, San Francisco 49ers, Anthony Davis, T, San Francisco 49ers, Glenn Dorsey, DE, San Francisco 49ers, Marcus Lattimore, RB, San Francisco 49ers, Trey Millard, RB, San Francisco 49ers, Keith Reaser, CB, San Francisco 49ers, Aldon Smith, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Jimmie Ward, CB, San Francisco 49ers

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 84 degrees. Light winds.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 31% Chicago, 69% San Francisco; O/U Bets - 78% Over, 22% Under

    The Breakdown: The Bears are definitely not as bad as the Week 1 score and San Francisco is not as good as its Week 1 easy victory. But, we only need to determine if San Francisco should win by a touchdown or more and the answer, as it was when we predicted many upcoming opportunities to fade the Bears, is still yes.

    Opening up Levi's Stadium (for the NFL regular season), the 49ers should break away from the Bears as the game goes along and San Francisco exploits Chicago's mistakes and weaknesses. The 49ers currently rank fourth overall in our NFL Power Rankings, with a top ten run and pass offense and the sixth ranked pass defense. With no NaVorro Bowman, the run defense is a bit of a concern, yet that has greater fantasy implications. As we saw in Week 1, DeMarco Murray for the Cowboys exploited the 49ers for big yardage totals, but it had little to do with the final score.

    Chicago is a team built almost exactly the same as Dallas. Both offensive lines were issues just a few years ago, yet are pretty good now. The skill positions are elite on offense, but paper thin and injury prone. And neither defense has more than one above average starter. Chicago is a little better than Dallas in just about all of those facets. Still, it is difficult to expect an outcome in Santa Clara that is much different than what the 49ers were able to do in Arlington (using city names where the stadiums are not is both trendy and confusing). The Bears currently rank 30th in overall defense, 28th against the pass and 32nd (last) against the run. Look for strong performances from both Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde as the 49ers run to victory.

    Boxscore: Chicago Bears, 22 @ San Francisco 49ers, 30

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

    Monday, September 15 at 8:30 PM ET:

    Indianapolis Colts -3 vs Philadelphia Eagles (Covers 56.3%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 51.2%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Philadelphia 24.3 - Indianapolis 30.1
    SU Pick and Win%: Indianapolis wins 62.3%
    Week 2 SU Confidence Rank: #9
    ATS Pick and Win%: Indianapolis Colts -3 covers 56.3%
    Week 2 ATS Confidence Rank: #7
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $41
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 51.2%
    Week 2 O/U Confidence Rank: #11
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: PHI IND
    Straight-Up Record 1-0 0-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-0 0-0
    Over/Under Record 0-1 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 34.0-17.0 24.0-31.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #31 #2
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #16 #8
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #6 #17
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #26 #20
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #7 #13
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 61.0%/39.0% #80.0%/20.0%
    Turnover Margin -2 -2

    Injured Players: Allen Barbre, T, Philadelphia Eagles, Najee Goode, LB, Philadelphia Eagles, Lane Johnson, T, Philadelphia Eagles, Evan Mathis, G, Philadelphia Eagles, Chris Polk, RB, Philadelphia Eagles, Jaylen Watkins, CB, Philadelphia Eagles, Sergio Brown, S, Indianapolis Colts, Stanley Havili, RB, Indianapolis Colts, Khaled Holmes, C, Indianapolis Colts, Robert Mathis, OL, Indianapolis Colts, Joe Reitz, G, Indianapolis Colts

    Weather Forecast: N/A

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 27% Philadelphia, 73% Indianapolis; O/U Bets - 92% Over, 8% Under

    The Breakdown: Chip Kelly's mentality and willingness to "question everything" often lead to positive results and support by analytical tools like the Predictalator. The Colts' reliance on fourth quarter comebacks, bend-but-don't-break defense and high turnover margin, tends to generate skepticism with our approach. Little of that matters for this Monday Night Football matchup in which we like the home team to win by closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Philadelphia enters the game without three of its starting offensive linemen, including suspended tackle Lane Johnson (one of the best rookies in the NFL last season) and the game's best offensive guard Evan Mathis. For many teams, linemen are "plug-and-play" guys that are often interchangeable. That is not really the case with Kelly and the Eagles who had the league's most talented and best line last season. The Eagles are also beat up and just plain bad in the secondary as well. At home in the spotlight with his full arsenal of weapons and a couple areas of opportunity (to exploit its opponent) that were not as obvious previously, Andrew Luck and the Colts should be able to put the Eagles away in a shootout.

    Boxscore: Philadelphia Eagles, 24 @ Indianapolis Colts, 30

    PIT @ BAL JAC @ WAS NO @ CLE DET @ CAR MIA @ BUF DAL @ TEN ATL @ CIN NE @ MIN ARI @ NYG STL @ TB SEA @ SD HOU @ OAK KC @ DEN NYJ @ GB CHI @ SF PHI @ IND

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    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    9/15/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of September 8-14, one could find that all playable NFL Week 2 against-the-spread plays, led by our Lock of the Week (Houston -3, which covered by two touchdowns) went 7-6 (54% ATS), while all playable halftime sides went 8-4 (67% ATS). In college football's Week 3, all playable picks for the week went 43-31 (58% ATS and O/U). In the last two weeks, all playable college football picks are 77-54 (59% ATS and O/U). Baseball picks continue to cash as all highlighted, "normal" MLB plays went 10-7 (59% ML, O/U, and RL). In the last two weeks all normal MLB plays are 16-10 (62% ML, O/U, and RL).

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