NHL Stanley Cup Odds

Last Updated: 4/14/2014 at 11:00 AM ET
The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. Each Stanley Cup bracket is played individually, with the team that wins the series in each unique instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

The Boston Bruins, who won the President's Cup with the most points in the East, are the favorites to win the Cup at 25.3% and are followed by the Anaheim Ducks (13.2%) and Chicago Blackhawks (12.9%) out of the Western Conference. Chicago, a three seed in the new playoff format (that includes two pods of seeded teams in each conference, is the only team expected pull off a first round upset by seed (over second seeded St. Louis Blues, who faded down the stretch), though Tampa Bay vs. Montreal and San Jose vs. Los Angeles are likely to go the distance in the first round.

NHL Stanley Cup Odds (based on 2014 NHL Playoffs played 50,000 times):

Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals Stanley Cup Finals Champ.
Eastern 1 Bos 80.5% 54.4% 40.3% 25.3%
Eastern 4 Det 19.5% 7.1% 2.5% 0.6%
Eastern 2 TB 57.8% 23.4% 8.5% 3.1%
Eastern 3 Mon 42.2% 15.2% 5.0% 1.6%
Eastern 1 Pit 64.5% 45.8% 20.4% 9.5%
Eastern 4 Cls 35.5% 18.4% 6.3% 2.0%
Eastern 2 NYR 62.9% 24.7% 12.7% 5.0%
Eastern 3 Phi 37.1% 11.1% 4.2% 1.2%
Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals Stanley Cup Finals Champ.
Western 1 Anh 72.9% 36.9% 23.3% 13.2%
Western 4 Dal 27.1% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8%
Western 2 SJ 58.0% 34.2% 15.8% 8.1%
Western 3 LA 42.0% 21.9% 8.8% 4.0%
Western 1 Col 66.0% 32.3% 12.7% 5.6%
Western 4 Min 34.0% 11.2% 2.8% 0.9%
Western 2 StL 41.5% 20.9% 11.8% 6.1%
Western 3 Chi 58.5% 35.7% 22.1% 12.9%

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The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.

7/21/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the last two weekends July 11th - 20th (since the All-Star break fell during last week), one could find that all playable over/under MLB plays went 26-17 (61% O/U).

The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. This provides us the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any contest including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under winners of each game.

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