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NHL Playoff Odds

Last Updated: 4/10/2012 at 1:00 PM ET
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The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. Each Stanley Cup bracket is played individually, with the team that wins the series in each unique instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

In the most likely Stanley Cup Finals, the Boston Bruins (18.1% overall to win Cup) win over the St. Louis Blues (11.2%) in a matchup between two number two seeds. The Pittsburgh Penguins, the East's fourth seed, have a 16.6% chance to win it all. The New Jersey Devils, a six seed in the East and the Detroit Red Wings a five seed in the West, are the only teams projected to win (more often than not) their first round series in upsets (over the Florida Panthers and Nashville Predators respectively). While the Chicago Blackhawks vs. Phoenix Coyotes series is the closest in the first round (Coyotes win 51.0% of the time), the most important first round series may be between in-state rivals Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia Flyers. The winner of that series goes on to win the Stanley Cup 23.9% of the time (the most of any series - by far). In total, the Eastern Conference has a 55.7% chance to win the title.

NHL Stanley Cup Odds (based on 2012 NHL Playoffs played 50,000 times):
RegionSeedTeamConf SemifinalsConf FinalsStanley Cup FinalsChamp.
Eastern1NYR62.0%29.0%14.2%7.4%
Eastern8Ott38.0%13.7%5.3%2.1%
Eastern4Pit59.5%45.0%26.1%16.6%
Eastern5Phi40.6%27.6%13.8%7.3%
Eastern3Fla40.2%9.6%2.7%0.8%
Eastern6NJ59.8%17.8%6.3%2.6%
Eastern2Bos77.1%49.0%28.9%18.1%
Eastern7Was22.9%8.3%2.6%0.8%
RegionSeedTeamConf SemifinalsConf FinalsStanley Cup FinalsChamp.
Western1Van62.7%34.6%21.2%10.8%
Western8LA37.3%16.1%7.5%2.6%
Western4Nsh47.2%26.0%11.5%4.6%
Western5Det52.8%31.4%15.2%6.8%
Western3Pho51.0%22.3%8.9%3.3%
Western6Chi49.0%20.3%7.9%2.9%
Western2StL65.0%35.4%21.9%11.2%
Western7SJ35.0%13.9%5.9%2.1%
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For Week 8 in the NFL, there are a total of 3 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, including seven picks that cover more than 60% of the time and three predicted outright upsets.

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10/27/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 20 - 26, one could find that highlighted, "normal" or better MLB picks went 2-0 to start the World Series and are now 31-11 (74% ML, O/U and RL) all-time. A normal $50 player using our play value recommendations would be +$747 during this MLB postseason.

In football, halftime picks were particularly strong. In Week 8 for the NFL, "normal" or better (and there are better) halftime picks went 7-1 (88% ATS and O/U). Combined NFL Week 8 and College Football Week 9 "normal" or better halftime picks hit 64% (ATS and O/U) and generated a profit of +$950 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Also, with a Central Michigan (-4) victory over Buffalo, 20-14, College Football Locks of the Week have covered in four straight weeks helping football Locks of the Week to a 103-59 (64% ATS) record all-time.

And with the season starting this week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

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NFL Picks - Week 9
For Week 9 in the NFL, there are a total of six plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as a total of 11 playable against-the-spread picks. See Denver @ New England and more.

College Picks - Week 10
For Week 10 in the College Football, there are a total of 13 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better and four predicted outright upsets. See Stanford @ Oregon and more.

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