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    NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 7

    By Mark Dankenbring
    DFS Football Value Plays – Week 7

    With Week 7 of the NFL season upon us, let's take a look at who sets up to have the most value based on their salary in daily fantasy for DraftKings and FanDuel. With injuries opening up expanded roles for certain players, and favorable matchups determined after six weeks of action, we have a solid list of value plays this week. Value plays are centered around players who are below the average salary cost for their position and will produce the most points per dollar spent. Below are a list of some highlighted players on both platforms, but to see a full ranking of players and their value this week, visit our Optimizer tool for full control over your lineup.

    Each player is listed with their salary and projected points for the week.

    DraftKings

    Quarterbacks



    Entering Week 7, Dalton has the 13th most expensive salary and our second most projected points among quarterbacks, making him a perfect fit to start off our value plays. Dalton will face the Browns at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, where he'll square off against a defense that just allowed three passing touchdowns for the fourth week in a row. Dalton has only thrown six touchdowns through six games, while the Browns have given up the second most in the NFL so far this season. Dalton also adds some value by running the football, as he's rushed for 91 yards and a score in his last three games (excluding the game against Miami where he knelt to end the game and lost yardage). With a great matchup ahead of him, Dalton lines up to be a great value play at quarterback this weekend.



    Mariota enters Sunday's home game against the Colts after two consecutive games of three passing touchdowns and at least 60 yards on the ground. As a near 30-point scorer in the last two weeks, Mariota makes our list once again as a strong value play in Week 7. Mariota will face a Colts' defense that just allowed two passing touchdowns for the third consecutive week and has struggled all year against the pass. With the inability of the Colts to stop both the run and pass, I expect Mariota and the entire Titans offense to have a solid day of production on Sunday.

    Running Backs



    After the news broke that Doug Martin is doubtful for this Sunday, Jacquizz Rodgers made his way into our value plays list for the first time this season. Rodgers also finds himself with one of the best matchups of the weekend, facing a 49ers team that just allowed over 300 yards rushing to the Bills last Sunday, including 140 yards and three touchdowns to LeSean McCoy. The 49ers have had a bad run defense all year, though, as they've allowed the third most points to opposing running backs on DraftKings this season. In Rodgers only start of this season, he touched the ball 35 times, rushing 30 times for 101 yards and catching five passes for 28 yards. With Charles Sims and Vincent Jackson both on IR, Jameis Winston is running out of weapons, so look for Rodgers to get a steady workload this weekend against one of the league's worst run defenses.



    Bernard seems to have claimed the majority of touches in the Bengals' backfield over the last two weeks, as he's out-snapped Jeremy Hill 98 to 36 in those games. He'll face a Browns' defense that has allowed a rushing touchdown in all four of their road games thus far. Bernard's main source of production has come through the passing game, however, as he's caught 10 passes for 91 yards over the past two weeks. Even though Bernard's primary production is through the passing game, he's still received more carries that Hill in the last two games, making him seem like the clear number one back in Cincinnati.

    Wide Receivers



    With the news that Eddie Lacy has been placed on IR and will be out tonight for the Packers' game against the Bears, it seems that Ty Montgomery is in line to see a lot of action in the backfield once again. Last week with a still contributing Lacy, Montgomery caught 10 passes out of the backfield for 98 yards and also carried the ball three times for six yards. Also, with Davante Adams likely out with a concussion, Montgomery could see some more opportunities split out against a Bears' defense that has had much more success against the run than the pass this season. With all of the injury factors the Packers are dealing with, as well as Montgomery having the most organizational experience in the Packer backfield, I expect Montgomery to get plenty of touches and opportunities tonight against the Bears.



    Humphries enters Week 7 as the clear number two wide receiver for the Buccaneers. With Vincent Jackson heading to IR with a torn ACL, Humphries figures to play more snaps than usual this Sunday against the 49ers. Also, since blowing the Rams out 28-0 in their opening game, the 49ers have allowed 37.0 ppg to opposing teams in their last five games. In those five games, San Francisco has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, which is good news for Humphries and the Bucs. Coming off a bye against one of the league's worst defenses sounds like a good matchup to me, so feel free to throw Humphries in your lineup for a very cheap value play this weekend.



    Garçon has been a model of consistency through the Redskins' four game winning streak, catching at least five passes for at least 56 yards in three of the four games. He enters Week 7 against a Detroit defense that has allowed the fifth most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers this year, including allowing at least one receiving touchdown to a receiver every game. Garçon seems to have re-established himself as Kirk Cousins' number one target over the past few weeks, as he's received at least five more targets than any other Redskin over the last three weeks. If Garçon can stay involved and get open against a porous Detroit secondary, he'll likely post another solid week and prove to be a great value play at only $3,700.

    Tight Ends



    Doyle enters Week 7 as the number one value play at the tight end position. With the update that Dwayne Allen will miss this weekend's game, Doyle becomes the clear number one target at the tight end position for the Colts. After Allen left last week's game early on due to the ankle injury, Doyle went on to catch four passes for 53 yards and a touchdown. The Titans have been relatively stingy against opposing tight ends thus far, but with Doyle being the primary pass-catcher, I still expect him to get plenty of looks from Andrew Luck, who loves to target his tight ends.



    Yet another Buccaneer makes our value play list this week, as Cameron Brate comes in as our second rated tight end this weekend. Brate only saw three targets against the Panthers in his last game, but with Vincent Jackson going down, Brate is now a top red zone target along with Mike Evans for QB Jameis Winston. San Francisco has also struggled against tight ends, allowing the ninth most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends this season. Therefore, I like Brate, along with the other Buccaneers players listed above, to have a productive week coming off of their bye.

    FanDuel

    Quarterbacks



    Coming off an underwhelming performance against a weak Oakland secondary, Smith gets another shot at a mediocre defense in the form of the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have given up more than 300 yards passing in four of their five games, including 322 after their bye week. With the Saints' offense being so productive so far, opposing teams have had to air the ball out, which will likely be the formula again this weekend. When Smith was forced to throw Week 1 trailing against the Chargers, he ended up throwing for 363 yards and two touchdowns. Look for Smith to exploit the matchup against a weak secondary and throw the ball to keep up with a Saints offense that has scored at least 32 points in four of their five games this season.



    Kaepernick enters Week 7 as the third cheapest option at the quarterback position in FanDuel. Despite only throwing for 187 yards and one touchdown last week, Kaepernick was able to pick up 66 yards on the ground against the Bills, and now gets a much more favorable matchup against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have struggled against the passing game this year, allowing at least two passing touchdowns in every game other than against Carolina, which was started by backup QB Derek Anderson. With another week of practice under his belt receiving the first team reps, I expect Kaepernick to look a little better this weekend, especially playing in front of his home crowd.

    Running Backs



    *See explanation above*



    *See explanation above*

    Wide Receivers



    *See explanation above*



    *See explanation above*



    Hurns enters Week 7 after putting together his two best fantasy performances of the season in the last two games. After catching his first touchdown of the year in Week 4, Hurns received the most targets he's seen all year in Week 6 with 11. Hurns was only able to haul in five for 74 yards, but getting those targets after the bye week is a good sign for Hurns, as Bortles is likely trying to re-establish the two-headed receiving monster that was Hurns and Allen Robinson last year. Luckily for Bortles and Hurns, they'll face an Oakland defense that has allowed the second most points to opposing WRs on FanDuel this year. Therefore, I expect Hurns to post another solid week against an awful Oakland secondary.

    Tight Ends



    *See explanation above*



    *See explanation above*



    If Jordan Reed sits out a second consecutive week due to a concussion, Davis is in line to have another solid weekend as the Redskins' tight end. Last week, Davis played a season high 72 snaps against the Eagles. In those snaps, Davis was targeted four times, catching two of those targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. The Redskins will head to Detroit to take on a Lions defense that has allowed a score to an opposing tight end in every game except one, including allowing three touchdowns to Colts' tight ends in Week 1. If Reed is out, Davis will be the starting tight end once again, and has the perfect matchup against a Lions team that is likely to give up another score to an opposing tight end this Sunday. With the minimum salary for a tight end this weekend, Davis looks like a great value play against Detroit.
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