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    NFL Line Movements (11/01/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Chiefs, Packers, and Eagles. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a nearly full slate (six teams on bye this week) of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Chiefs, Packers, and Eagles. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Chiefs vs. Bills
     
    Kansas City opened as a 4.5 point favorite on the road in Buffalo but sharp money has bet the line down to Chiefs -3. The public is backing the undefeated Chiefs as 63% of the money is coming in on Kansas City. We have seen 3.5 pop up a couple of times this week but get quickly bought back down to Kansas City -3.
     
    Fun Note: Since 1978, fifteen teams have started 8-0. Of those teams nine made it to the Super Bowl and eight won. Though Kansas City is undefeated we give six other teams a better chance of winning the Super Bowl.
     
    Prop Bet of the Game

    Kansas City Chiefs - Points per game allowed in the 2013 Regular Season       
    Over/Under:  15.5
     
    The Kansas City’s defense has allowed 98 points this season or 12.25 points/game. In order for the Chiefs defense to give up more than 15.5 points/game the defense will have to allow more than 248 points to be scored or 150 more points over the final eight games. We should have a good idea if this prop will go over as two of the Chiefs’ next four games are against Denver (42.9 points/game).
     
    Bears vs. Packers
     
    The line in this game has moved from Green Bay -8 to Packers -10.5. Why would it cross over a key number? Green Bay has covered the last four games in this series. Chicago has not won in Lambeau since 2007. The Bears are 3-7-1 as a road dog since 2011. The Packers are 22-7 against-the-spread in their last 29 games as a regular season host. It also helps that the Bears are starting Josh McCown who has thrown more career interceptions than touchdowns.
     
    We know the answer to these prop bets!

    Josh McCown - Total Passing Yards Week 9?         
    Over/Under:  240.5
     
    Josh McCown - Total TD Passes Week 9?   
    Over:  1.5 (+150)
    Under:  1.5 (-180)
     
    Josh McCown - Total Interceptions Week 9?           
    Over:  0.5 (-280)
    Under:  0.5 (+220)
     
    Using the Projected Box Score for the Packers/Bears game we project Josh McCown to throw for 233.4 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions. We have a slight lean on the under in passing yards, over in touchdowns and over in interceptions.
     
    Eagles vs. Raiders

    Philadelphia opened as 2.5 point favorites but the line has flip-flopped to Oakland -2.5. The majority, 82%, of the money is coming in on the Raiders to cover at home. The Raiders are 5-2 against-the-spread this year. Dating back to 2012, Oakland is 12-2 against the line in their last 14 games.
     
    Saddest prop bet of Week 9

    Philadelphia Eagles - Will they score an offensive TD Week 9?       
    Yes:  -2000   (1/20)
    No:  +1000   (10/1)
     
    Was this prop bet meant for the Jaguars? Philly has scored three points in its last two games after averaging 27.7 points/game during a 3-3 start. The odds imply that there is a greater than 95% chance that the Eagles will score a touchdown. So you got that going for you, Philadelphia!
     
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