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    NFL Line Movements (09/13/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL and college football, plus prop bets for the Manning Bowl and Johnny Manziel.


     
    With a full slate of NFL and college football games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the Manning Bowl and the Alabama/Texas A&M game.  
     
    Giants vs. Broncos
    Line movement in this game has been sporadic. Denver opened as a 4.5 point favorite on the road Sunday night but we have seen this line bet down as low as 3.5 and as high as 5.5 but never crossing key numbers of 3 and 6. Currently, the line is where it began, in Bill Simmons’ “Vegas Zone” (Vegas doesn’t know what is going to happen), with the Broncos being 4.5 point favorites.
     
    We do not have a strong opinion on this game; we even went so far as to see what would happen if the Manning brothers switched teams? Just because you do not have an opinion on the side, does not mean you should not get to bet a game. Prop bets courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Who will throw the first touchdown pass in the game?
    Peyton: -150
    Eli: +120
     
    Who will throw the first interception of the game?
    Peyton: +160
    Eli: -200
     
    Chiefs vs. Cowboys
    Kansas City opened Sunday night as a one-point favorite. Injury concerns surrounding two of the Cowboys’ biggest stars, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, have helped push the line to Chiefs -3. Despite the line movement indicating support for the Chiefs, 65% of the tickets that have been written are on the Cowboys, a public team.
     
    Seahawks vs. 49ers
    The marquee matchup of the week features the top two teams in our Power Rankings. The line has been at 49ers -3 all week with only variation in the juice. So far, 89% of the bets being wagered have been on San Francisco but the line has not moved because sharp money is on Seattle. According to Bob Scucci, bookmaker for Boyd Gaming in Nevada, the bets on the 49ers have been of the $10-$100 (Public) variety while the bets on the Seahawks have been $10,000+ (Sharp).
     
    There might be some bad blood between the “forty whiners” and the “She-hawks”, which leads to this:
     
    How many unsportsmanlike conduct penalties will there be in the 49ers vs. Seahawks game?
    Over/Under: 1.5


     
    Texas A&M vs. Alabama
    The Tide opened as 7 point favorites on the road Sunday morning. Then the Internet gave us this fun fact: Nick Saban is 15-2 when avenging a loss from the previous season. The line quickly moved to Alabama -9.5 but Aggie money bought the line back to -7.5 where it has stayed for most of the week.
     
    It would not be college football without some Johnny Manziel. Props courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Will Johnny “Football” Manziel receive an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty?
    Yes: Even
    No: -140
     
    Total passing yards for Johnny Manziel?
    Over/Under: 279.5
     
    Last year Manziel threw for 253 yards against the Tide. Alabama is 7th in defensive pass efficiency this year.
     
    Total passing and rushing touchdowns, plus interceptions for Johnny Football?
    Over/Under 3.5
     
    Despite rushing for 21 touchdowns last season, Manziel did not cross the goal line against ‘Bama, though he did rush for 92 yards.  

    Check back next week when we break down more of the notable line movements from the NFL and college football. 
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