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    NFL Line Movement (12/27/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Cowboys, Packers and Lions. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a full slate of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving the Cowboys, Packers, and Lions. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Eagles vs. Cowboys
     
    The Cowboys (5-0 vs. the NFC East) face a win-or-go-home division showdown in the final week of the season for the third year in a row. Their odds of winning took a major hit with Tony Romo in serious doubt of playing. In fact, the look ahead line for this game was Dallas -2.5, then it jumped to Philadelphia -2.5 after a strong performance by the Eagles Sunday night, but when it was announced that Romo could miss the remainder of the season the Eagles became a touchdown favorite.
     
    Kyle Orton last started a game in 2011. He is 35-34 in nine NFL seasons and has never led a team to the postseason as a starter. Which leads to a slew of Orton prop bets.
     
    Total Passing Yards Week 17             
    Over/Under:  250.5
     
    Total TD Passes Week 17                   
    Over 1.5:  EVEN
    Under 1.5:  -130
     
    Total Interceptions Week 17               
    Over 0.5:  -250
    Under 0.5:  +200
     
    We have a slight lean on the over on all of these prop bets.
     
    Packers vs. Bears

    “With Aaron Rodgers taking first team reps this week but still being listed as questionable, the team here at Bovada had to make two different spreads for the Packer-Bears game on Sunday. First, we made the line if Rodgers was not playing and we came up with a point spread of Bears -4. Then we made the point spread with Rodgers starting for the Packers and we came up with Packers -3. Basically, Rodgers is worth a whole touchdown when it comes to the point spread of this game and changed the Packers from underdogs to favorites as soon as he was confirmed the starter.”

    Qutoe courtesy of Kevin Bradley, Bovada.lv Sportsbook Manager.

    Aaron Rodgers will start Sunday against the Bears after missing 7 weeks with a collarbone injury. The Packers may also get back Randall Cobb who has missed 10 games with a leg injury. This game did not have a line until Rodgers was declared the starter. Green Bay opened as a field goal favorite and the line has bounced back and forth between the Packers -2.5 and -3.
     
    Will Jay Cutler be pulled Week 17 while trailing in game non-injury related?                    
    Yes:  +400    
    No:  -700    
     
    Marc Trestman has admitted that he should have pulled Cutler from a game sooner when the Bears’ quarterback struggled. With Cutler's poor performance last week (222 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) could the Bears’ signal-caller be pulled early if Chicago falls behind the Packers? The odds imply that there is a 20% chance of Josh McCown seeing some playing time.
     
    Lions vs. Vikings
     
    The Lions have lost five of their last six games eliminating themselves from the playoffs. The Vikings postseason hopes never formalized when they dropped seven of their first eight games. Motivation for this game could be sparse. The Lions originally were 2.5 point favorites before being eliminated but now the Vikings are a field goal favorite. 
     
    How many Head coaches will be fired before the 1st NFL Playoff game kicks off?             
    Over/Under:  4.5
     
    Jim Schwartz and Leslie Frazier could both be potentially coaching the last game for their respective teams. Other coaches on the hot seat: Rex Ryan (Jets), Jason Garrett (Cowboys), Mike Shanahan (Redskins), Mike Smith (Falcons), Mike Schiano (Buccaneers), Tom Coughlin (Giants) and Mike Munchak (Titans).
     
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