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    NFL Line Movements (11/22/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Jets and Colts. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    With a nearly full slate (Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Seattle on bye) of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving the Broncos, Jets and Colts.
     
    Patriots vs. Broncos
     
    Before the season began this was the only game the Broncos were projected as underdogs. Back in May, the Patriots were 1.5 points favorites. The record setting Denver offense has changed that; the Broncos are now favored by 2.5 points.
     
    Who will Record more Passing Yards Week 12?   
    • Peyton Manning:  -30.5       
    • Tom Brady:  +30.5 
    Peyton is averaging 357 yards per game; Brady averages a full 100 yards fewer (255 yards/game). In our simulations Manning throws for 304 yards compared to Brady’s 262 yards. We would back Peyton and the Denver passing attack even if Welker does not play.
               
    Jets vs. Ravens
     
    The Ravens opened as a field goal favorite in the look ahead lines. A strong offensive performance by Ray Rice (131 yards and a touchdown) and another dismal game from Geno Smith for the Jets has generated action on Baltimore. Nearly 80% of wagers being placed are on the Ravens. The line is currently at Baltimore -4.
     
    Will the Jets win week 12, lose week 13, win week 14, lose week 15, win week 16, lose week 17?
    • Yes:  25/1 
    The Jets have won every other week this season, they are the first team since the NFL/AFL merge to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games. The odds imply that there is nearly a 4% chance of this occurring. We estimate that the Jets have a 1.9% chance of alternating wins the rest of the season, and that would still likely get them into the playoffs.
     
    Cardinals vs. Colts
     
    The Colts are a public team with Andrew Luck at quarterback, yet money has pushed this line from Arizona -1.5 to -2.5. Nearly 75% of wagers being placed are on the Cardinals to cover against the Colts. I’ll take responsibility for this after my FREE Andre Ellington campaign.
     
    Who will end up with more Rushing Yards as a member of the Colts in the 2013 Regular Season?         
    • Trent Richardson:  +100 yards                   
    • Donald Brown:  -100 yards       
    We project Donald Brown to have 373 yards over the Colts’ last six games compared to Trent Richardson’s 183 yards. Brown more than doubles Richardson’s output, T-Rich is only averaging 2.8 yards/carry this season.
     
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