New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NFL Line Movements (11/22/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Jets and Colts. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    With a nearly full slate (Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Seattle on bye) of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving the Broncos, Jets and Colts.
     
    Patriots vs. Broncos
     
    Before the season began this was the only game the Broncos were projected as underdogs. Back in May, the Patriots were 1.5 points favorites. The record setting Denver offense has changed that; the Broncos are now favored by 2.5 points.
     
    Who will Record more Passing Yards Week 12?   
    • Peyton Manning:  -30.5       
    • Tom Brady:  +30.5 
    Peyton is averaging 357 yards per game; Brady averages a full 100 yards fewer (255 yards/game). In our simulations Manning throws for 304 yards compared to Brady’s 262 yards. We would back Peyton and the Denver passing attack even if Welker does not play.
               
    Jets vs. Ravens
     
    The Ravens opened as a field goal favorite in the look ahead lines. A strong offensive performance by Ray Rice (131 yards and a touchdown) and another dismal game from Geno Smith for the Jets has generated action on Baltimore. Nearly 80% of wagers being placed are on the Ravens. The line is currently at Baltimore -4.
     
    Will the Jets win week 12, lose week 13, win week 14, lose week 15, win week 16, lose week 17?
    • Yes:  25/1 
    The Jets have won every other week this season, they are the first team since the NFL/AFL merge to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games. The odds imply that there is nearly a 4% chance of this occurring. We estimate that the Jets have a 1.9% chance of alternating wins the rest of the season, and that would still likely get them into the playoffs.
     
    Cardinals vs. Colts
     
    The Colts are a public team with Andrew Luck at quarterback, yet money has pushed this line from Arizona -1.5 to -2.5. Nearly 75% of wagers being placed are on the Cardinals to cover against the Colts. I’ll take responsibility for this after my FREE Andre Ellington campaign.
     
    Who will end up with more Rushing Yards as a member of the Colts in the 2013 Regular Season?         
    • Trent Richardson:  +100 yards                   
    • Donald Brown:  -100 yards       
    We project Donald Brown to have 373 yards over the Colts’ last six games compared to Trent Richardson’s 183 yards. Brown more than doubles Richardson’s output, T-Rich is only averaging 2.8 yards/carry this season.
     
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 12 (11/25/13)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 11 (11/18/13)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Risers & Fallers - Power Rankings
    Mark Dankenbring discusses the biggest risers and fallers in our MLB Power Rankings over the course of the past week.

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com