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    NFL Line Movements (11/08/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Packers, Bengals, and Dolphins. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a nearly full slate (four teams on bye this week) of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Packers, Bengals, and Dolphins. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Eagles vs. Packers
     
    If Aaron Rodgers did not get injured the Packers would be favored by 10 points, according to the early lines posted before kickoff last Sunday. However, as soon as Rodgers went down this line tumbled. Green Bay was installed as a 2.5 point favorite but money on the Eagles continues to depress this line as the Packers are now a one point favorite.
     
    Rodgers injury not only lowered the spread in this game but also the Packers’ chances of making the playoffs. Assuming that Rodgers misses three games, Green Bay’s odds of reaching the postseason dwindled from 79.5% to 53.2%.
     
    We know the answer to these prop bets (sort of).
     
    Nick Foles - Total TD Passes Week 10 vs. Green Bay         
    Over 2:  +120
    Under 2:  -150
     
    Nick Foles - Total Interceptions Week 10 vs. Green Bay
    Over 0.5:  -150
    Under 0.5:  +120
     
    Nick Foles has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. One might think this would make the over on touchdowns and under on interceptions enticing. Sample size can be deceiving. You may recall Joe Flacco threw 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in a four game span to win the Super Bowl last season. This year Flacco has thrown 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.
     
    I’m not suggesting that Foles will revert back to a 50/50 split on touchdowns to interceptions but he will likely regress. We project Foles to throw for 2 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions Sunday against the Packers.
     
    Ravens vs. Bengals
     
    Cincinnati has not been favored on the road in Baltimore since Week 1 of 2008 when the Bengals were 2 points favorites but lost 17-10. Cincy is favored by 1.5 points this week despite losing Geno Atkins for the season. By our simulations, Atkins is worth just less than a field goal but the line keeps moving (75% of bet on Cincy) toward the Bengals. This speaks to how horrific the Ravens have looked at times this season, Baltimore is 1-4 in their last five games but there is a more telling stat.
     
    Prop Bet that Ravens fans hate
     
    Will the Ravens have someone Rush for 100 or more Yards in the 2013 Regular Season?
    Yes:  -200    
    No:  +150    
     
    The highest rushing performance by a Raven player this year was 74 yards by Ray Rice in Week 4. Joe Flacco led the team in rushing last week with 25 yards. Rice has had at least one 100 yard rushing performance each year in the league but every good thing must come to an end.
     
    Buccaneers vs. Dolphins
     
    Miami is a circus right now with the media coverage created by extracurricular locker room activities. The 0-8 Buccaneers are getting some love from gamblers as 60% of wagers have been on Tampa Bay. The Dolphins opened as 3.5 point favorites but the line has crossed the key number of three and settled at Miami -2.5.
     
    You can bet on a prop like “Will Richie Incognito be on an NFL Roster for Game 1 of the 2014 Regular Season?” but I prefer to look at a prop that relates to this game.
     
    How many Sacks will the Bucs have vs. the Dolphins Week 10?
    Over/Under:  2.5
     
    Miami has allowed a league-high 35 sacks this season. Tampa Bay is near the bottom of the NFL in defensive sacks but with the Dolphins missing the left side of their offensive line things could get interesting.
     
     
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