New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NFL Line Movement (11/07/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Steelers and Eagles. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    With another weekend of NFL betting action just around the corner, let's look at the line movements in some of the more interesting games to see how the current lines got where they are today.

    Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Broncos, Steelers and Eagles.

    Broncos @ Raiders


    Denver just suffered its worst regular season defeat in Peyton Manning's three seasons in Mile High, yet the defending AFC Champions opened as double-digit road favorites against the Raiders. Denver is now favored by 11.5 points in Oakland.

    Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, there have been 19 instances when a team lost by three or more touchdowns the previous week and then was favored by double digits the next week. In those games the double-digit favorite has covered the spread 63 percent of the time (12-7 ATS).

    How many QB's will throw 40 or more TD Passes in the 2014 Regular Season?
    • Over/Under: 1.5

    Two quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, are currently on pace for over 40 touchdowns. There have been seven times when a quarterback has thrown for over 40 touchdowns in a season since 2000.

    Steelers @ Jets


    Ben Roethlisberger became the first quarterback to throw 12 touchdown passes in two games. The Steelers have now won three games in a row, while the Jets are looking to avoid a franchise record ninth straight loss.

    Over 90 percent of the money is on Pittsburgh to cover. The Steelers opened as 1.5 points favorites in the look-ahead lines but the flood of money on Pittsburgh has drove the line to the Steel City -5.

    Will Ben Roethlisberger throw 6 or more TD Passes Week 10?
    • Yes: 20/1

    Doubtful. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown six touchdowns in each of the last two weeks with zero interceptions. The odds imply there is less than a 5 percent chance of Big Ben tossing six more scores against the Jets.

    Eagles vs. Panthers


    Philadelphia is a 6 point favorite at home against Carolina. The over/under in this game is set at 48 points. Nick Foles will miss six to eight weeks with a broken collarbone. The line movement in this game is interesting because there hasn't been any.

    Why wouldn't the line move when the starting quarterback of a 6-2 division leading team gets hurt? Chip Kelly's offense is quarterback friendly.

    With Mark Sanchez as the starter we project the Eagles to make the playoffs 76 percent of the time and to have nearly a 5 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

    Who will be the starting QB for the Eagles for game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
    • Mark Sanchez: 5/2
    • Nick Foles: 4/1
    • Matt Barkley: 5/1
    • Any Other QB: 1/1

    The options at quarterback aren't great in Philadelphia. Sources say the Eagles had soured on Foles even before the injury. Mark Sanchez is famous for a butt fumble. Perhaps this is why “Any Other QB” is listed as the favorite to start in 2015.


    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 10 (11/10/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    Chip Kelly's Offense (11/05/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Risers & Fallers - Power Rankings
    Mark Dankenbring discusses the biggest risers and fallers in our MLB Power Rankings over the course of the past week.

    MLB Futures Picks - Who to bet for the World Series
    Each Monday during the 2017 season, we will review free MLB Futures value picks.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com