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Bracket Odds (Sweet 16)

Last Updated: 3/24/2014 at 12:00 PM ET
2014 Tournament Pages:
Bracket Odds (Sweet 16 Update)
Thursday (3/27) Picks (all games)
Friday (3/28) Picks (all games)
Bracket Simulator
Player Pick'em Contest

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Bracket Odds (based on 2014 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):
Region Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Florida 63.8% 51.7% 32.2% 19.5%
South 4 UCLA 36.2% 25.6% 12.6% 6.0%
South 11 Dayton 45.8% 9.9% 2.9% 0.8%
South 10 Stanford 54.2% 12.8% 4.0% 1.2%
East 1 Virginia 39.3% 25.4% 12.2% 5.8%
East 4 Michigan St. 60.7% 43.1% 24.7% 14.0%
East 3 Iowa St. 55.4% 18.9% 7.3% 2.8%
East 7 UCONN 44.6% 12.5% 4.1% 1.4%
West 1 Arizona 61.0% 31.3% 13.3% 5.7%
West 4 San Diego St. 39.0% 15.2% 4.8% 1.6%
West 6 Baylor 49.2% 25.9% 10.8% 4.6%
West 2 Wisconsin 50.8% 27.6% 11.7% 5.2%
Midwest 8 Kentucky 26.6% 12.0% 5.4% 2.0%
Midwest 4 Louisville 73.4% 47.5% 32.2% 19.4%
Midwest 11 Tennessee 37.3% 11.3% 4.9% 1.6%
Midwest 2 Michigan 62.7% 29.2% 16.8% 8.5%


2014 Tournament Pages:
Bracket Odds (Sweet 16 Update)
Thursday (3/27) Picks (all games)
Friday (3/28) Picks (all games)
Bracket Simulator
Player Pick'em Contest

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For Week 8 in the NFL, there are a total of 3 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, including seven picks that cover more than 60% of the time and three predicted outright upsets.

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10/27/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 20 - 26, one could find that highlighted, "normal" or better MLB picks went 2-0 to start the World Series and are now 31-11 (74% ML, O/U and RL) all-time. A normal $50 player using our play value recommendations would be +$747 during this MLB postseason.

In football, halftime picks were particularly strong. In Week 8 for the NFL, "normal" or better (and there are better) halftime picks went 7-1 (88% ATS and O/U). Combined NFL Week 8 and College Football Week 9 "normal" or better halftime picks hit 64% (ATS and O/U) and generated a profit of +$950 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Also, with a Central Michigan (-4) victory over Buffalo, 20-14, College Football Locks of the Week have covered in four straight weeks helping football Locks of the Week to a 103-59 (64% ATS) record all-time.

And with the season starting this week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

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NFL Picks - Week 9
For Week 9 in the NFL, there are a total of six plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as a total of 11 playable against-the-spread picks. See Denver @ New England and more.

College Picks - Week 10
For Week 10 in the College Football, there are a total of 13 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better and four predicted outright upsets. See Stanford @ Oregon and more.

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