Bracket Odds (Sweet 16)

Last Updated: 3/24/2014 at 12:00 PM ET
2014 Tournament Pages:
Bracket Odds (Sweet 16 Update)
Thursday (3/27) Picks (all games)
Friday (3/28) Picks (all games)
Bracket Simulator
Player Pick'em Contest

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Bracket Odds (based on 2014 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):
Region Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Florida 63.8% 51.7% 32.2% 19.5%
South 4 UCLA 36.2% 25.6% 12.6% 6.0%
South 11 Dayton 45.8% 9.9% 2.9% 0.8%
South 10 Stanford 54.2% 12.8% 4.0% 1.2%
East 1 Virginia 39.3% 25.4% 12.2% 5.8%
East 4 Michigan St. 60.7% 43.1% 24.7% 14.0%
East 3 Iowa St. 55.4% 18.9% 7.3% 2.8%
East 7 UCONN 44.6% 12.5% 4.1% 1.4%
West 1 Arizona 61.0% 31.3% 13.3% 5.7%
West 4 San Diego St. 39.0% 15.2% 4.8% 1.6%
West 6 Baylor 49.2% 25.9% 10.8% 4.6%
West 2 Wisconsin 50.8% 27.6% 11.7% 5.2%
Midwest 8 Kentucky 26.6% 12.0% 5.4% 2.0%
Midwest 4 Louisville 73.4% 47.5% 32.2% 19.4%
Midwest 11 Tennessee 37.3% 11.3% 4.9% 1.6%
Midwest 2 Michigan 62.7% 29.2% 16.8% 8.5%


2014 Tournament Pages:
Bracket Odds (Sweet 16 Update)
Thursday (3/27) Picks (all games)
Friday (3/28) Picks (all games)
Bracket Simulator
Player Pick'em Contest

Archive

The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.

7/28/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of July 21st - 27th, one could find that all featured, half-bet or better MLB plays (including half-bets and normal picks) went 58-37 (59% ML, O/U and RL).

With training camps opening for the NFL, it's also worth noting that the NFL Preview will launch on August 6th, with the college football preview launching a week later on August 13th. For the 2013 season, playable picks for all NFL games went 120-89 (57% ATS), culminating in a playoff run in which all plays went 9-1-1 (90% ATS). Seeing similar success, especially with strongest opinions, the college football Locks of the Week went 14-2 (88% ATS).
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