Bracket Odds

Last Updated: 2/10/2014 at 2:31 PM ET
The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Bracket Odds (based on 2014 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
Midwest 1 Wichita St. - 87.3% 58.4% 33.3% 16.5% 9.2% 4.5%
Midwest 16 Weber St. 53.2% 6.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 16 Southern U. 46.8% 5.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 8 UNC - 54.1% 22.0% 9.6% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5%
Midwest 9 G. Wash. - 45.9% 16.9% 6.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
Midwest 5 Iowa - 69.0% 48.0% 28.9% 15.0% 8.4% 4.5%
Midwest 12 Toledo - 31.0% 12.9% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Midwest 4 Cincinnati - 71.6% 31.1% 14.5% 5.4% 2.4% 0.9%
Midwest 13 Delaware - 28.4% 8.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Midwest 6 UCLA - 64.4% 24.3% 12.5% 5.9% 2.8% 1.2%
Midwest 11 Southern Miss - 35.6% 10.1% 3.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Midwest 3 Duke - 82.6% 59.7% 41.6% 28.6% 19.1% 12.1%
Midwest 14 SFA - 17.4% 6.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Midwest 7 Oklahoma St. - 58.3% 26.9% 10.4% 4.7% 2.0% 0.8%
Midwest 10 Xavier - 41.7% 15.9% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Midwest 2 Michigan St. - 73.2% 46.8% 21.5% 11.5% 6.2% 2.9%
Midwest 15 Georgia St. - 26.8% 10.4% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
West 1 Arizona - 89.8% 65.8% 45.1% 31.9% 17.8% 10.0%
West 16 Utah Valley - 10.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
West 8 Gonzaga - 54.2% 18.2% 8.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6%
West 9 Minnesota - 45.8% 13.8% 6.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4%
West 5 Texas - 58.2% 23.8% 8.1% 3.8% 1.1% 0.4%
West 12 St. Joe's 42.0% 15.4% 4.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
West 12 Fla. St. 58.0% 26.4% 9.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
West 4 Kentucky - 75.8% 52.4% 25.1% 15.1% 7.2% 3.5%
West 13 UW-Green Bay - 24.3% 9.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
West 6 Oklahoma - 59.7% 27.2% 15.0% 6.0% 2.3% 0.9%
West 11 Providence - 40.3% 14.8% 7.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
West 3 Michigan - 67.9% 44.3% 30.2% 15.9% 8.1% 4.0%
West 14 Iona - 32.1% 13.7% 6.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
West 7 UCONN - 58.0% 38.7% 18.5% 7.0% 2.6% 0.8%
West 10 California - 42.0% 25.0% 10.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
West 2 San Diego State - 34.9% 9.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
West 15 UC Santa Barbara - 65.1% 27.2% 10.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Florida - 83.6% 55.9% 29.4% 14.6% 7.5% 3.7%
South 16 Davidson - 16.4% 4.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
South 8 Memphis - 51.4% 20.5% 8.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4%
South 9 Kansas St. - 48.6% 19.3% 7.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
South 5 Ohio State - 65.7% 33.2% 18.1% 8.3% 3.9% 1.8%
South 12 Oregon 64.9% 24.9% 9.9% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3%
South 12 Richmond 35.1% 9.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
South 4 Virginia - 83.8% 50.4% 30.5% 15.5% 8.2% 4.1%
South 13 Boston U. - 16.2% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
South 6 Mass. - 40.5% 12.8% 5.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
South 11 SMU - 59.5% 22.7% 10.9% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8%
South 3 Creighton - 74.6% 55.1% 37.2% 25.0% 15.6% 9.6%
South 14 ND St. - 25.4% 9.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
South 7 New Mexico - 55.6% 19.5% 6.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
South 10 Colorado - 44.4% 12.7% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
South 2 Kansas - 79.8% 59.1% 31.2% 17.9% 9.6% 4.9%
South 15 Vermont - 20.2% 8.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
East 1 Syracuse - 88.4% 60.0% 38.9% 23.1% 13.1% 7.2%
East 16 Robert Morris 66.2% 9.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East 16 Co. Carolina 33.8% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 8 Stanford - 41.4% 13.6% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
East 9 Tennessee - 58.6% 23.9% 12.2% 5.3% 2.2% 0.9%
East 5 St. Louis - 64.6% 35.7% 15.9% 7.3% 3.0% 1.2%
East 12 Harvard - 35.4% 13.8% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
East 4 Wisconsin - 74.7% 43.8% 21.0% 10.6% 4.9% 2.2%
East 13 Belmont - 25.3% 6.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
East 6 Louisville - 69.4% 45.5% 24.8% 13.5% 7.0% 3.5%
East 11 Arizona St. - 30.6% 14.3% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
East 3 Iowa St. - 73.3% 33.6% 15.1% 6.8% 3.0% 1.2%
East 14 Mercer - 26.7% 6.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
East 7 Pittsburgh - 59.3% 28.4% 14.8% 7.2% 3.3% 1.6%
East 10 VCU - 40.7% 15.6% 6.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
East 2 Villanova - 85.4% 52.9% 31.5% 17.8% 9.4% 5.0%
East 15 UNC-Central - 14.6% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

 

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