New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    Bracket Analysis (03/02/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    A look at what the men's college basketball tournament could look like through 50,000 simulations of Bracketology.

    We use Joe Lunardi's Bracketology to construct the bracket.

    See: How it Works, a Tournament Summary and Regional Previews: South, West, East and Midwest.

    How it Works

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA Tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. See the Bracket Odds and Predictalated Bracket.

    Tournament Summary

    It has already been a wild 2015-16 season. Six schools have been ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll, one off the record set in 1982-83. In a season that has been as unpredictable as this one, how wide open is the NCAA tournament going to be?

    To answer that question we looked back at the last six tournaments (2010 to 2015) we simulated and averaged the probability for each of the top ten teams to cut down the nets. Then we compared that average to the ten most likely 2016 champions.

    How much of a difference is there heading into March Madness?

    Rank Average Team 2016 Team
    1 21.4% 16.7%
    2 13.2% 13.9%
    3 10.3% 11.3%
    4 9.1% 10.3%
    5 7.9% 8.1%
    6 6.0% 7.8%
    7 4.5% 4.9%
    8 3.9% 4.5%
    9 3.2% 2.8%
    10 2.8% 2.7%

    Michigan State is currently the most likely champion ten days from Selection Sunday. The Spartans have a 16.7 percent chance to win it all. The average favorite in the last six years has had better than a 20 percent chance to win before the tournament started.

    While it is true that the most likely favorite will not be as strong as the top teams in the past, to say the tournament is wide open is misleading. On average, the ten most likely champions have won 82.1 percent of all simulations. This year's top teams are 83.0 percent likely to win the tournament.

    March will be mad, as it always is, but the tournament isn't wide open. There just is no dominant team.

    South Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Virginia (31.5%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Iowa State (12.1%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Saint Mary's (22.0% to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 31.9%

    First Round Upset: #10 Cincinnati over #7 Dayton (59.3%)

    Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, #6 Texas over #11 Saint Mary's (54.5%)

    West Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Oklahoma (28.5%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Kentucky (19.9%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Valparaiso (12.0% to make to Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 23.4%

    First Round Upset: #9 Vanderbilt over #8 Texas Tech (56.3%)

    Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, #6 Baylor over Play-In (57.4%)

    East Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Villanova (45.7%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Arizona (11.2%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Yale (13.7% to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 20.5%

    First Round Upset: #9 USC over #8 Pittsburgh (54.5%)

    Closest First Round Game: #7 Seton Hall over #10 VCU (54.5%)

    Midwest Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Kansas (32.2%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Duke (16.7%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): UConn (12.9% likely to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 24.2%

    First Round Upset: #9 Syracuse over #8 Colorado (60.4%)

    Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, #7 Wichita State over #10 UConn (66.4%)

    Print This Article
    Predicting Mid-Majors (03/04/16)
    Bracket Analysis (02/24/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    04/24/2017 Highlight: The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Recommended Features



    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including Miguel Cabrera's injury, Cody Bellinger's call up and the Seattle Mariners' mess.

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by