New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    Bracket Analysis (02/10/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    A look at what the men's college basketball tournament could look like through 50,000 simulations of Bracketology.

    We use Joe Lunardi's Bracketology to construct the bracket.

    See: How it Works, a Tournament Summary and Regional Previews: South, West, East and Midwest.

    How it Works

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA Tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. See the Bracket Odds and Predictalated Bracket.

    Tournament Summary

    There is a new No. 1 in college basketball, again. Six schools have held the top spot in the AP Poll already this season, one off the record with more than a month to play before Selection Sunday. The carousel keeps spinning in a year with no dominant team.

    Despite the turnover at the top and a seemingly wide-open field, the NCAA Tournament is going to be all chalk. In the most recent Bracketology, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa are No. 1 seeds and are the most likely teams to reach the Final Four. Here is why each is a legitimate threat to cut down the nets in Houston.


    Why will the Sooners win March Madness? Two words: Buddy Hield. The favorite (even money) to win the Naismith College Player of the Year award – Hield leads one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The senior has a chance to become the first player to finish a season shooting 50 percent from the field, 50 percent behind the arc and 90 percent from the charity stripe.

    Boomer Sooner has a 10 percent chance to win out and a 59 percent chance to win the Big 12, which would go a long way to securing the top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

    North Carolina

    The Tar Heels are still one of the four best teams in the country despite recent struggles (back-to-back losses followed by a narrow win over Boston College) and Roy Williams collapsing on the sideline. UNC is tops in the ACC and is the most likely team to win the conference (48 percent). North Carolina is a longshot to win out (4 percent chance), but they don't need to in order to lock up a top seed. The Heels are 4th in offensive efficiency against a top 35 schedule. Come tourney time, Marcus Paige will have likely found his stroke and a Final Four appearance for North Carolina (the first in seven years) will not surprise anyone.


    Nova is No. 1 in The Associated Press college basketball poll for the first time. The Wildcats have won 13 of their last 14 games, have wins over five teams in the top 50 of our Power Rankings and are overpowering defensively. Unlike the other potential top seeds, Jay Wright's squad is top five in defensive efficiency allowing just 61.0 points per game (8th in the nation).

    Nova has won back-to-back Big East regular season titles and is in the driver's seat to do so again (61 percent chance). However, the Wildcats have lost in the Round of 32 in each of the last two years. A strong defensive effort, plus a favorable path to the Final Four will see Wright's team get over the hump and make a deep tournament run.


    The Hawkeyes are for real and continue to show up the competition. Iowa has won 12 of their past 13 games by being one of the most balanced teams in the country. Fran McCaffery's bunch is the only team in the nation to be top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their four losses are to schools all in our top 40 and by a combined 16 points.

    With seven conference games remaining, Iowa has a better than one-in-five chance of winning out. As the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings, Iowa is the most likely team to win it all. The Hawkeyes are the only team with better than a 15 percent chance to be left standing after the Big Dance.

    All four current No. 1 seeds have greater than a 30 percent chance to reach the Final Four. If this were to happen it would be just the second time (first was 2008) in NCAA history that the four top seeds reached the Final Four. Combined, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa have a 46.3 percent chance to win March Madness.

    South Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Iowa (39.1%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Iowa State (11.6%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): VCU (12.7% to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 30.5%

    First Round Upset: #10 VCU over #7 Utah (56.8%)

    Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, #8 Gonzaga over #9 Pittsburgh (56.5%)

    West Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: North Carolina (31.9%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Oregon (20.4%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): San Diego State (15.5% to make to Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 19.2%

    First Round Upset: #10 Valpo over #7 South Carolina (65.8%)

    Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, #6 Providence over #11 Monmouth (51.8%)

    East Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Villanova (35.4%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Notre Dame (10.3%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Arkansas-LR (10.5% to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 24.0%

    First Round Upset: None

    Closest First Round Game: #5 Purdue over #12 Arkansas-LR (68.3%)

    Midwest Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Oklahoma (31.5%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Duke (14.1%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Butler (9.1% likely to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 26.4%

    First Round Upset: None

    Closest First Round Game: #5 Arizona over #12 Play-in (66.1%)

    Print This Article
    Bracket Analysis (02/17/16)
    Bracket Analysis (02/03/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    Our models offer the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because they have the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    08/09/2017 Highlight: Football season is slowly approaching and as we use our ResultsFinder tool to look back on previous seasons, we can see that ATS picks in the NFL regular season have topped 56% ATS four times in seven years, and have been profitable in all but one season on the site. NFL Playoff picks are also a stellar 50-25 (67% ATS) in our history.

    In college football, "normal" or better totals are 58% all-time and have been profitable in five of the previous seven years. Meanwhile, our strongest ATS pick each week in college football is 69-40 (63% ATS) all-time. With college football season win totals being posted this week, we can also note that last season, playable win total picks in went 28-19 (60% O/U) to turn a profit of $899 for a normal $50 player using our play value recommendations.

    MLB picks have been on a tear for upwards of a month, with our models generating $742 in total profits on ML and RL picks since the beginning of July. "Normal" or better ML and RL plays in that same stretch are a commendable 20-11 (64.5%), producing $331 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    Fantasy Sports Partnership
    Prediction Machine has partnered up with Fantasy Guru Elite. Read the blog from our Business Manager, Rob Pizzola, to learn more.

    NFL Preview - In-Depth Analysis
    In the most likely Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks. Check out in-depth analysis for every team in the league.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by