New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    Bracket Analysis (2/9/17)

    By Paul Bessire
    A look at what the men's college basketball tournament could look like through 50,000 simulations of Bracketology.

    We use Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology to construct the bracket as of Feburary 9, 2017.

    See: How it Works, a Tournament Summary and Regional Previews: South, West, East and Midwest.

    How it Works

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA Tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. See the Bracket Odds and Predictalated Bracket.

    Tournament Summary

    It has already been a wild 2016-17 season. We saw three of the top four teams in the AP Poll lose in the same Tuesday night in late January and just last weekend, six top ten teams went down in action. In a season that has been as unpredictable as this one, how wide open is the NCAA tournament going to be?

    To answer that question we looked back at the last seven tournaments on (2010 to 2016) we simulated and averaged the probability for each of the top ten teams to cut down the nets. Then we compared that average to the ten most likely 2017 champions as of right now.

    How much of a difference is there heading into March Madness?

    Title Chances Rank Average 2010-2016 2017 Simulations
    1 21.4% 17.9%
    2 13.2% 17.6%
    3 10.3% 12.0%
    4 9.1% 10.9%
    5 7.9% 6.3%
    6 6.0% 5.1%
    7 4.5% 5.1%
    8 3.9% 4.9%
    9 3.2% 3.3%
    10 2.8% 3.1%

    Undefeated Gonzaga is currently the most likely champion in early February. It should be noted that Gonzaga has never been the most likely champion in any interation of this weekly (February - March) exercise over the last eight years. The Zags have a 17.9 percent chance to win it all. The average favorite in the last six years has had better than a 20 percent chance to win before the tournament started.

    While it is true that the most likely favorite will not be as strong as the top teams in the past, to say the tournament is wide open is misleading. On average, the ten most likely champions have won 82.1 percent of all simulations. This year's top teams are 86.2 percent likely to win the tournament. More notably, the top four teams in win chances - Gonzaga, Virginia, Villanova and Louisville - total 58.4% of all championships as comapred to 54.0% normally. And it's not like those four teams all have easy paths; Gonzaga and Virginia play each other in the West with the winner of that game being 35%+ likely to win the title.

    March will be mad, as it always is, but the tournament isn't wide open. There just is no one dominant team.

    South Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: UNC (27.3%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Kentucky (25.7%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): TCU (9.6% to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 15.1%

    First Round Upset: #9 VCU over #8 Virginia Tech (55.6%)

    Closest First Round Game: #7 Northwestern over #10 TCU (53.2%)

    West Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Gonzaga (36.8%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Virginia (35.1%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Wichita State (29.86% to make to Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 42.7%

    First Round Upset: #10 Wichita State over #7 Notre Dame (56.3%), #9 Marquette over #8 USC (59.6%)

    Closest First Round Game: In addition to the games above, #6 Butler over #11 Miami (67.6%)

    East Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Villanova (40.9%)

    Final Four Sleeper: Purdue (15.5%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Minnesota (11.1% to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 18.7%

    First Round Upset: None

    Closest First Round Game: #8 Oklahoma State over #9 Dayton (57.1%)

    Midwest Region

    Most Likely Final Four team: Louisville (33.5%)

    Final Four Sleeper: SMU (4.0%)

    Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Wake Forest (7.5% likely to make Sweet 16)

    Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 24.2%

    First Round Upset: None

    Closest First Round Game: #8 Michigan State over #9 Arkansas (51.5%)

    Print This Article
    Bracket Analysis (2/16/17)
    2017 Title Odds (04/07/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!




    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    MLB Risers & Fallers - Power Rankings
    Mark Dankenbring discusses the biggest risers and fallers in our MLB Power Rankings over the course of the past week.

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by