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    GameChangers (05/21/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at highlights from the most recent NBA Playoff game utilizing Live ScoreCaster.



    Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

    After each NBA Playoff game we breakdown some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

    Heat vs. Pacers – Game 2

    The Miami Heat evened the series at a game apiece with an 87-83 victory in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami used a 12-2 run in the fourth quarter to take the lead and improve their expected win probability from 21 percent to 96 percent.

    Game defining sequence…
    With Indiana leading 75-74 with less than five minutes to play, David West missed an open jumper and then fouled LeBron James on the ensuing play, almost drawing a flagrant foul. LeBron made both free throws to give Miami the lead; it was the play that gave the Heat the projected lead for good.

    Had West made the jumper, Indiana leads 77-74, the Pacers become 77 percent likely to win and take a 2-0 series lead.

    Heat vs. Pacers – Game 1

    Despite trailing at various points in the game, Indiana was the projected winner throughout Game 1.

    Be wary of 12-2 runs. Miami used such a run to seal Game 2, the Pacers used a 12-2 run to blow Game 1 wide open. The Pacers run came during a three minute stretch in the third quarter, Indiana's expected win probability increased from 74 percent to 92 percent.

    Spurs vs. Thunder – Game 1

    The San Antonio Spurs routed the Oklahoma City Thunder 122-105 in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

    The Thunder took a 78-77 lead with less than five minutes left in the third but the Spurs used a 12-4 run to close the quarter. San Antonio's expected win probability increased from 55 percent to 85 percent.
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