New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NBA Value Bets (05/18/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NBA Playoffs – Conference Finals Value Bets. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    The conference finals are upon us and the NBA is down to its Final Four. The Golden State Warriors are the oddsmakers favorites to win the championship but is there any value in backing the Dubs to win the title?

    Below we look for value in the NBA Playoff odds as the postseason moves to the conference finals. We utilize our updated NBA Playoff Probabilities to find the likelihood of a given team advancing and winning the title. These odds assume that Kyrie Irving misses one game and is less than 100% in the series against the Atlanta Hawks.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the championship and compare that to our projected odds. For example, Golden State is listed at 4/7 to win the title, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Warriors they would need to capture the championship 63.6% of the time (which is 7/(4 + 7)) of the time. We project Golden State to win it all 58.4% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 4/7 odds.

    NBA Championship Value Bets

    Houston Rockets
    Championship Odds: 10/1, Implied Chance: 9.1%, Projected Chance: 12.6%

    A week ago the Rockets were 66/1 to win the title trailing the Los Angeles Clippers 3-1 in the conference semifinals. Houston shocked the Clippers and the NBA by becoming just the ninth team in league history to overcome a 3-1 playoff deficit.

    The team's reward is a conference final against the Golden State Warriors. The Dubs were the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings entering the playoffs. Golden State is the most balanced team in the league ranking second in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency. The Warriors also were 4-0 against the Rockets in the regular season beating Houston by an average of nearly 13 points.

    Despite facing Golden State and after the team's odds have improved dramatically following their improbable series win against the Clippers, there is still value in backing the Rockets to win their first championship since 1995.

    2015 NBA Playoffs – Odds to win Championship

    Team Odds Odds Needed Proj. Chance
    Golden State Warriors 4/7 63.6% 58.4%
    Cleveland Cavaliers 13/5 27.8% 18.6%
    Houston Rockets 10/1 9.1% 12.6%
    Atlanta Hawks 9/1 10.0% 10.5%

    2015 NBA Finals – Exact Matchup

    The most likely final is the Golden State Warriors vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. We project this matchup to occur 44.4% of the time. There is no value in betting this series to occur at 1/2 odds. There is some value in both matchups featuring Houston in the finals.

    Exact Matchup Odds Odds Needed Proj. Chance
    Cleveland vs. Golden State 1/2 66.7% 44.4%
    Atlanta vs. Golden State 2/1 33.3% 32.1%
    Cleveland vs. Houston 10/1 9.1% 13.7%
    Atlanta vs. Houston 18/1 5.3% 9.9%

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Improbable Comebacks
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers (05/15/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    06/04/2017 Highlight: With the NHL Stanley Cup Finals nearing its conclusion, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our playoffs-to-date numbers. Since the start of May, the Predictalator is an incredible 25-9 (73.5%) on all NHL selections, including money line sides, totals, and puck lines. An average $50 bettor would have profited $242; six times more than the cost of the full NHL Playoffs package.

    The NBA Playoffs have featured more ups-and-downs than the NHL postseason; however, totals continue to produce at a solid clip for the Predictalator. Dating back to the beginning of April, the Predictalator has posted a stellar 53-41 (56.4%) record on all playable NBA totals, producing $351 in total profit for a $50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Comparing the Best Teams in NBA History
    We use advanced statistical methods to rank past great championship teams against the most recent NBA championship and powerhouse teams.

    MLB Risers & Fallers - Power Rankings
    Mark Dankenbring discusses the biggest risers and fallers in our MLB Power Rankings over the course of the past week.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com