New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NBA Playoff Probabilities (03/30/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NBA Playoff Probabilities – Odds to win the NBA Championship



    With just a few weeks remaining until the NBA Playoffs start, every game matters. How has the playoff picture changed in the last week?

    Each week, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide up-to-date projected records, standings, playoff probabilities and odds to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy for each team in the NBA.

    Top storylines:

    The Thunder rallied from 20 points down to beat the Suns 109-97 Sunday, it was the largest comeback since the franchise moved to Oklahoma. The Thunder's win (18% chance to complete the rally) may have sealed the playoff fates for both OKC and Phoenix. The Thunder are now 89% likely to reach the postseason, up eight percent from last week, and Phoenix has just a 0.3% chance (down 6.5%) to play past the 82nd game of the season.

    Rockets' General Manager Daryl Morey said Sunday that he thinks Houston can ‘beat anybody' in a playoff series. You can see why he would be confident. The Rockets own the second best record in the West, have won at least 50 games for the second consecutive season and have played much of the season without Dwight Howard. Unfortunately for Morey, Houston has less than a two percent chance to win the title.

    San Antonio has won 13 of 16 games. The defending champs have averaged 111.6 points per game in March while going 11-3. The Spurs are one of just three teams to rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency in our most recent Power Rankings. San Antonio has a 6.5% chance to repeat.

    The East will likely send two teams with losing records to the playoffs. Miami has an 85% chance to reach the postseason. Brooklyn (current 8th seed), Boston, Charlotte and Indiana are all 40% or less likely to sneak into the final spot in the East. Regardless of which two teams decide to play past the third week of April it is highly improbable that any win the title, combined all five clubs have 0.4% chance to bring home the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

    2015 NBA Playoff Probabilities

    Team Playoff% Conf. Quarters Conf. Semis Conf. Finals Finals
    Golden State Warriors 100.0 81.9 57.3 39.5 28.4
    Cleveland Cavaliers 100.0 87.7 52.7 38.6 19.1
    Los Angeles Clippers 100.0 67.9 40.1 24.1 15.0
    Atlanta Hawks 100.0 84.6 39.9 26.5 10.4
    San Antonio Spurs 100.0 54.4 27.9 11.5 6.5
    Dallas Mavericks 99.9 51.6 27.2 9.8 5.2
    Toronto Raptors 100.0 61.4 32.0 12.0 3.5
    Portland Trail Blazers 100.0 47.4 18.4 6.5 3.1
    Washington Wizards 100.0 50.4 28.3 9.5 2.5
    Chicago Bulls 100.0 65.7 29.9 10.1 2.4
    Houston Rockets 100.0 42.1 12.6 3.9 1.6
    Memphis Grizzlies 100.0 36.2 10.6 2.9 1.3
    Oklahoma City Thunder 89.0 16.8 5.4 1.6 0.6
    Miami Heat 84.5 17.9 7.5 1.8 0.2
    Indiana Pacers 40.2 6.6 2.6 0.6 0.1
    Charlotte Hornets 24.4 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.1
    Milwaukee Bucks 98.0 15.0 3.7 0.5 0.0
    Brooklyn Nets 38.7 5.2 1.5 0.1 0.0
    Boston Celtics 13.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
    New Orleans Pelicans 10.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
    Detroit Pistons 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Phoenix Suns 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Denver Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Los Angeles Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Minnesota Timberwolves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    New York Knicks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Orlando Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Philadelphia 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Sacramento Kings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Utah Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Make/Miss Playoff Odds (04/02/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NBA Playoff Probabilities (03/24/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    06/26/2017 Highlight: With the MLB season almost reaching its midpoint, we can take a look back at our Win Total Picks released at the beginning of the season to see where things currently stand. We released 22 playable win totals and at this point in the season, 15 of those 22 plays (68.2%) are on pace to be winners by the end of the season. Of the nine "normal or better" win totals that we released, seven of nine (77.8%) are looking like winners at this point.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Futures Picks
    Each Monday during the 2017 season we take a look at MLB betting markets and identify the best values on teams to win their division and the World Series.

    Top Teams in NBA History
    We use advanced statistical methods to rank past great championship teams against the most recent NBA championship and powerhouse teams.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com