NBA Playoff Odds (Original)
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6/20 Update: Leading 3-1, Miami is now a 84.5% favorite to win in the NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder. If Oklahoma City wins in Game 5, then the Heat decrease to a 55.7% favorite (Thurnder win 44.3%).

June 10, 2012 - An intriguing and unique (and shortened) NBA season by just about any angle concludes with two incredibly talented and young rosters competing for the championship. Before this NBA Playoffs season began, we projected the Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat would meet in the NBA Finals 14% of the time, which was the second most likely finals matchup behind the Thunder and Chicago Bulls. At that time, the numbers suggested that the Heat would be about a 56% favorite to win in a seven game series over the Thunder. That is a long way from where sportsbooks rate which, at -165 in favor of the Thunder, would suggest that OKC is about 60% likely to win the finals - and 62.2% confidence would be needed to place a wager on the Thunder.

While we could not foresee Derrick Rose's knee injury or anything happening to Chris Bosh at that time, we can account for injuries, roster changes and even how team depth charts have been utilized to produce new projections on this series. Updating all numbers, the Oklahoma City Thunder are rightfully favorites, but not that significant. In 50,000 simulations of the NBA Finals, Oklahoma City wins over Miami 56.3% of the time. The most likely scenario (as seen below) is a seven game series won by the Thunder. That being said, the Heat will need to make the most of playing Games 3, 4 and 5 at home. Of all series simulated, 39% are won by the Thunder in six or seven games. That also means that almost 70% of the Thunder's series wins come at home. In total, 65.2% of series go at least six games, while the series gets to a decisive Game 7 34.4% of the time (which is won by the home Thunder 57.0% of the time). The exact most likely series outcome - OKC in seven games at 19.6% - is more likely than either team winning in a sweep (11.2%), but not as likely as either team winning in five games (23.6%).

Having homecourt advantage for Game 7 is significant. Simulating the NBA Finals with the home court advantage going to the Heat instead of the Thunder, each team wins exactly 25,000 times (a true 50/50 chance for either squad).

From a value perspective, as +145 underdogs (a successful $100 wager would yield a $145 payout), a wager on the Miami Heat would require at least 40.8% confidence to justify (when looking at underdogs, the confidence requirement can be calculated as 100/(100+Odds). Given the Heat meet this requirement, the value is actually on the underdog. Utilizing our Play Value Calculator with +145 odds and 43.7% confidence, a normal $50 player could warrant playing $25 (a true "half-bet").

Here are the results of the 2012 Heat-Thunder NBA Finals played 50,000 times:

Heat vs. Thunder:

How we do this:
The Predictalator plays this best-of-seven series 50,000 times. Each series is played in its entirety and recorded by which team wins and in how many games. The data we use incorporates individual player's statistics, where most recent games are given more weight. This helps us account for player development as well as those who may be playing differently now because of health (good or bad). Playing time and matchup assumptions are made with regards to recent team history, so they are dictated by coaching styles and not necessarily what would be optimal. Relevant statistics include individual and team per-possession statistics as adjusted by strength of schedule of opponents.