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    Finals Game 7 Props (06/19/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Will LeBron wear a headband; will the game go to overtime? NBA Finals Game 7 prop bets. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    “After an instant classic in game 6, we posted the Miami Heat as 6.5 point favorites for game 7. However, significant sharp action moved the line to Miami -6 early this morning. Since the move we have been seeing steady two-way action with 45% of players betting the Heat and 55% of players betting the Spurs. As has been the case for the majority of the series, the book will be pulling for LeBron James (headband or not) and the Miami Heat to win game 7 and keep the title in South Beach.”

    Kevin Bradley, Sportsbook Manager, Bovada.lv

    There have been 112 Game 7’s in NBA history, the home team has won 79.5% of the time. As such the Heat are significant favorites to win Game 7 and repeat as NBA Champions. Below we look at prop bets for Game 7.

    NBA Finals, Game 7 – Spread and Total  

    • Miami Heat: -6                   
    • Total: 189

    Winning Margin          

    The odds imply that the most likely outcome is Miami by 3-6 points. At 9/2 odds the bookmakers suggest that this happens 18.2% of the time.

    Margin of Victory Odds
    San Antonio Spurs to win by 1-2 pts 11/1
    San Antonio Spurs to win by 3-6 pts 7/1
    San Antonio Spurs to win by 7-9 pts           14/1
    San Antonio Spurs to win by 10-13 pts          18/1
    San Antonio Spurs to win by 14-16 pts              33/1
    San Antonio Spurs to win by 17-20 pts               35/1
    San Antonio Spurs to win by 21+ pts                  50/1
    Miami Heat to win by 1-2 pts                            10/1
    Miami Heat to win by 3-6 pts                            9/2
    Miami Heat to win by 7-9 pts                              13/2
    Miami Heat to win by 10-13 pts                      11/2
    Miami Heat to win by 14-16 pts                    9/1
    Miami Heat to win by 17-20 pts               9/1
    Miami Heat to win by 21+ pts               6/1

    Will the Team that scores first win the Game?

    • Yes, 10/13
    • No, 1/1

    In this series the team that has scored first has won the game three times.

    Will the Team Leading at Halftime Win the Game?

    • Yes, 4/13
    • No, 5/2

    In this series, the team that is leading at halftime has went 3-2. Game 4 was tied at the half.

    Will the Game go to Overtime?

    • Yes, 9/1
    • No, 1/18

    There have been 17 Game 7s in the NBA Finals and only two of them have gone to OT. The odds imply that there is a 10.0% chance of the game going to overtime.

    LeBron Props

    Will LeBron James be wearing a headband at tip off of Game 7?    

    • Yes, 1/2
    • No, 3/2

    LeBron has come to terms with his male pattern baldness and will not wear his patent headband…yeah right. Editor's Note: reports are that LeBron has already said he is going to wear the headband, the prop bet has been taken down.

    LeBron is 2-2 all-time in Game 7s. He is averaging 33.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in those four games. In his last Game 7, a win over the Pacers in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals, LeBron had 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists.

    Total Points

    • Over/Under, 28.5

    Total Rebounds

    • Over/Under, 9.5

    Total Assists     

    • Over/Under, 7

    Duncan Props

    Tim Duncan is 2-1 in Game 7s, which includes a win in Game 7 of the 2005 NBA Finals. Duncan has averaged 27.3 points and 13.3 rebounds in his three Game 7 appearances.

    Total Points

    • Over/Under, 18.5

    Total Rebounds

    • Over/Under, 11.5

    Additional Player Props 

    Total Points - Dwyane Wade (MIA)       

    • Over/Under, 18.5

    Total Made 3 Point Shots - Mike Miller (MIA)   

    • Over/Under, 1.5

    Total Made 3 Point Shots - Ray Allen (MIA)     

    • Over/Under, 2

    Total Points - Tony Parker (SAN)         

    • Over/Under, 20.5

    Total Rebounds - Kawhi Leonard (SAN)           

    • Over/Under, 8.5

    Total Points - Manu Ginobili (SAN)      

    • Over/Under, 13.5

    Total Made 3 Point Shots - Danny Green (SAN)           

    • Over/Under, 2.5
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