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    Three Up Three Down (6/1/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    A sports rating system analyzes the results of sports competitions to provide objective ratings for each team. Rankings are then derived by sorting the team’s rating and assigning an ordinal rank. A lazy analyst will add the word Power to the beginning of their rankings for added significance. An even lazier analyst will skip the whole ranking ordeal and cherry pick a few teams to talk about - which leads us to May’s Three Up, Three Down column.

    Three Up

    St. Louis Cardinals

    May: 20 Wins, 7 Losses, .741 Win Percentage, Leading NL Central by 2 games

    Season: .660 Win Percentage, 35 wins – 18 losses

    The Cardinals have the best record in baseball despite having four starting pitchers on the disabled list. Rookie pitching has been stellar for the Cardinals with first year players accounting for 12 wins. The rest of the rotation has not been too shabby either as St. Louis has the best ERA (3.07) in baseball. Offensively the club continues to put up crooked numbers earning the Redbirds the best run differential in the game.

    PredictionMachine.com simulated the remainder of the season 50,000 times and the Cardinals win the NL Central with a projected Win-Loss record of 90-72, finishing just 1 game ahead of the second place Pirates.

    Cleveland Indians

    May: 18 Wins, 12 Losses, .600 Win Percentage, 0.5 games out of first in AL Central

    Season: .537 Win Percentage, 29 wins – 25 losses

    The Indians have been clutch. The Tribe is hitting .316 with runners in scoring position with two outs. The timely hitting has helped the Indians to a 9-1 record in games decided by one run or that went to extra innings this month. A large part of their success can be credited to Carlos Santana (8 HR), Mark Reynolds (13 HR), and offseason pickups Nick Swisher (7 HR) and Michael Bourn (8 SB).

    PredictionMachine.com simulated the remainder of the season 50,000 times and the Indians finish 2nd in the AL Central with a projected Win-Loss record of 84-78. Cleveland finishes 10 games behind 1st place Detroit and misses the playoffs.

    Tampa Bay Rays

    May: 18 Wins, 10 Losses, .643 Win Percentage, 2 games out of first in AL East

    Season: .556 Win Percentage, 30 wins – 24 losses

    The Rays have had success this month climbing back into the AL East race after a slow start to the season. Regardless of whether the Rays are winning or losing ball games we have had success betting the totals in their games. Our normal plays involving Tampa Bay have gone 7-4 (64% O/U) this season (shameless plug). Our overall record for normal + over/under picks is 49-37 (57% O/U) this season. This has produced +$665 for a normal $50 player. Since the start of 2012, normal+ over/under picks are 173-127 (58% O/U).

    PredictionMachine.com simulated the remainder of the season 50,000 times and the Rays finish 4th in the AL East with a projected Win-Loss record of 84-78 (only 4 games out of 1st in a tight AL East).

    Three Down

    Kansas City Royals

    May: 8 Wins, 20 Losses, .286 Win Percentage, 6.5 games out of first in AL Central

    Season: .423 Win Percentage, 22 wins – 30 losses

    There has been a power outage in Kansas City. Billy Butler hit a home run on May 14th and Jeff Francoeur hit a home run on May 30th. Between those two dingers the Royals went 14 games without a home run by a regular starter. The Royals are dead last in the big leagues with 14 home runs for the month of May (Domonic Brown of the Phillies hit 12 HRs in May) and are second to last for the season, only two long balls ahead of Miami.

    PredictionMachine.com simulated the remainder of the season 50,000 times and the Royals finish 21 games out of first in the AL Central with a projected Win-Loss record of 73-89.

    Miami Marlins

    May: 6 Wins, 22 Losses, .214 Win Percentage, 18.5 games out of first in the NL East

    Season: .255 Win Percentage, 14 wins – 41 losses

    The Marlins have a chance to do something really special and by that I mean really awful. Miami has a chance to score the fewest runs in modern baseball history. Miami has scored 152 runs in 55 games or 2.76 runs per game. Since 1900 the team with the worst runs per game average was the 1908 Cardinals who averaged 2.42 runs. Miami will have to try a little harder to achieve true awfulness.

    PredictionMachine.com simulated the remainder of the season 50,000 times and the Marlins finish 36 games out of first in the NL East with a projected Win-Loss record of 57-105.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    May: 6 Wins, 22 Losses, .214 Win Percentage, 15 games out of first in NL Central

    Season: .377 Win Percentage, 20 wins – 33 losses

    The Brewers have had losing streaks of four (twice), five, and six games in May. Six wins are pretty pathetic but at least they are not the 1988 Baltimore Orioles who went 1-22 in a month. More good news for Brewers fans, well if they took the under on Milwaukee’s season win total, is that they are on pace for 61 wins. This mark is well below the line of 81.5 wins. The Brewers under was one of our normal win total picks. We are currently projecting our normal+ 2013 win total picks to go 7-4 (64% O/U).

    PredictionMachine.com simulated the remainder of the season 50,000 times and the Brewers finish 14 games out of first in the NL Central with a projected Win-Loss record of 76-86.

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