For our complete MLB 2012 Preview, please see our Power Rankings, Over/Under Win Total Picks, Standings Projections and Playoff Probabilities and Division-by-division Breakdowns.
The Predictalator has played every 2012 MLB game 50,000 times before it's actually played. Based on that analysis, we present projected Over/Under team win total picks using lines provided by Bovada. Projected Wins come from our 50,000 simulations. The pick percentage is the rate from those 50,000 simulations at which the team finished with greater or fewer (depending on the "pick") than the line.
Total Wins Picks (based on every 2012 MLB game played 50,000 times)
| New York Mets | 79.8 | 72.0 | OVER | 61.6% | Calc --> |
| Kansas City Royals | 73.5 | 80.0 | UNDER | 61.1% | Calc --> |
| Oakland Athletics | 78.9 | 72.0 | OVER | 60.1% | Calc --> |
| Chicago White Sox | 80.3 | 74.5 | OVER | 59.1% | Calc --> |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 80.1 | 86.5 | UNDER | 58.9% | Calc --> |
| Detroit Tigers | 86.5 | 92.5 | UNDER | 58.8% | Calc --> |
| San Diego Padres | 78.8 | 73.5 | OVER | 58.8% | Calc --> |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 89.8 | 84.5 | OVER | 57.3% | Calc --> |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 85.6 | 90.5 | UNDER | 57.3% | Calc --> |
| Los Angeles Angels | 88.1 | 92.5 | UNDER | 57.0% | Calc --> |
| Colorado Rockies | 77.8 | 81.5 | UNDER | 56.6% | Calc --> |
| Cincinnati Reds | 83.0 | 87.0 | UNDER | 56.5% | Calc --> |
| New York Yankees | 88.8 | 93.0 | UNDER | 56.5% | Calc --> |
| Minnesota Twins | 70.7 | 73.5 | UNDER | 55.7% | Calc --> |
| Texas Rangers | 94.8 | 90.5 | OVER | 55.6% | Calc --> |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 81.9 | 80.5 | OVER | 53.7% | Calc --> |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 92.3 | 93.5 | UNDER | 53.7% | Calc --> |
| San Francisco Giants | 85.1 | 87.5 | UNDER | 53.6% | Calc --> |
| Chicago Cubs | 73.4 | 74.5 | UNDER | 53.3% | Calc --> |
| Houston Astros | 65.1 | 64.0 | OVER | 53.2% | Calc --> |
| Atlanta Braves | 85.7 | 86.5 | UNDER | 53.2% | Calc --> |
| Baltimore Orioles | 68.1 | 69.5 | UNDER | 53.1% | Calc --> |
| Seattle Mariners | 73.0 | 72.0 | OVER | 53.0% | Calc --> |
| Miami Marlins | 82.8 | 84.5 | UNDER | 53.0% | Calc --> |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 72.4 | 73.5 | UNDER | 52.8% | Calc --> |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 80.2 | 81.5 | UNDER | 52.6% | Calc --> |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 83.4 | 84.5 | UNDER | 52.3% | Calc --> |
| Boston Red Sox | 90.2 | 90.0 | OVER | 52.2% | Calc --> |
| Washington Nationals | 82.8 | 83.5 | UNDER | 52.0% | Calc --> |
| Cleveland Indians | 78.9 | 78.5 | OVER | 51.5% | Calc --> |
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The Play Value Key:
Given the winning percentages listed as our confidence for each pick, all plays are not created equal. Each against-the-spread and over/under play is color-coded to aid in play value decision making. All play values are relative to what we consider a "normal play." As a generally conservative rule of thumb, typical wagers should be 1-3% of one's bankroll. A normal play should never exceed 5% of one's bankroll and the combined plays for one day should not exceed half of one's bankroll. The Play Value Key on the right side of the page explains the colors. If the play is listed as '3X Normal Play' that means that it is very strong and worth wagering three times the value of a normal play. The key is fairly conservative with general rules of thumb and ignores other plays made that day. For more specific recommendations, please use the Play Value Calculator. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.
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The Play Value Calculator:
Using the Play Value Calculator is a more exact approach to understanding the value of a pick based on its expected win percentage. Clicking on 'Calc' next to any pick will automatically load that pick into the Play Value Calculator. Then, to get the most accurate recommendation possible, please enter your normal play value and how many other plays you are making this day. As a generally conservative rule of thumb, typical wagers should be 1-3% of one's bankroll. A normal play should never exceed 5% of one's bankroll and the combined plays for one day should not exceed half of one's bankroll. Click 'Calculate' to see the value to wager for your play on that game. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.
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The Parlay Calculator:
Our Parlay Calculator is unique. Traditional Parlay Calculators may provide the straight-line payout odds. You should be able to get any of that information relative to your picks from your linesmaker. Instead, we think it is more valuable to calculate your actual likelihood of success on a parlay. To use the calculator, click on the Show Parlay Calculator toggle and choose the number of games you are interested in playing. Add ATS or O/U percentages from the picks by clicking 'Calc' (as you would for the Play Value Calculator). Once you have added all of the games you are interested in, click 'Calculate' to see your Parlay Success and Payout Needed. The Parlay Success is the likelihood that each of these picks will cover. The Payout Needed expresses that value relative to payouts. As long as the payout odds you receive from are greater than or equal to the Payout Needed, the Parlay is an acceptable play. Since payouts are done on a straight-line odds basis, the Payout Needed from a combination of our playable picks will almost always yield an acceptable play. Everything is relative, however. Please note the Parlay Success value. With up to ten teams in a parlay, exotic plays like this will almost never be expected to win. We provide this information to set realistic expectations for parlay plays and to aid in comparing the relative differences between expected payout from the play and the possible payout. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.
For our complete MLB 2012 Preview, please see our Power Rankings, Over/Under Win Total Picks, Standings Projections and Playoff Probabilities and Division-by-division Breakdowns.