New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Luck for RG3 (11/24/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Trading places: Luck for RG3. How would such a switch impact the Colts and Redskins?



    The first matchup between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III comes nearly three years after the two quarterbacks were taken with the first and second overall picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.

    Both quarterbacks were drafted with the hope that they could revitalize once proud franchises. The Colts were coming off a 2-14 campaign and would start a new era without Peyton Manning. The Redskins had gone 5-11 the previous year for a fourth consecutive last-place finish in the NFC East.

    The first season for both quarterbacks was a great success. Luck led the Colts to an 11-win season and a Wild Card berth. Griffin took the Redskins from worst to first as Washington won the NFC East after starting the season 3-6.

    From there the star quarterbacks' paths have diverged.

    Luck is 30-16 as a starter, has led the Colts to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons and has Indianapolis in the driver's seat for a second consecutive AFC South division title.

    RG3 suffered a knee injury in his first playoff game. Griffin was able to recover from the surgery in time to start the 2013 season, but Washington went 3-8 before he was benched for the remainder of the season.

    A new head coach, a new offensive system and a healthy RG3 were supposed to be the keys to a playoff run for the Redskins in 2014. However, Griffin injured his ankle in Week 1, costing the quarterback seven starts. Griffin has since started Washington's last three games; all loses, leading to speculation that he could once again be benched.

    With Luck the franchise quarterback we all imagined and Griffin mired in controversy, what would this week's game and this season look like if the Colts had drafted RG3 with the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft?

    The Indianapolis Colts are 9.5 point favorites at home over the Washington Redskins. The money-line, Indianapolis -485, implies that a bettor would need to have greater than 83 percent confidence in the Colts to win in order to feel comfortable placing a wager.

    After 50,000 simulations, with Luck on Washington and Grillin III starting for Indianapolis, the Redskins would be 59 percent likely to win with an average projected score of 32-28.

    Andrew Luck is so far ahead of Robert Griffin III at this point in their careers that he would make a heavy underdog the projected favorite on the road.

    Over a full season, Luck is even more valuable.

    If Luck were the starter all season in Washington, the Redskins would be projected to win the NFC East with a 10-6 record. Indianapolis, with RG3 would finish second in the AFC South behind Houston with a projected 7.5 wins.

    Luck would be projected to throw for 4,529 yards, 34 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in Jay Gruden's offense. RG3, assuming a full healthy season, would be projected to throw for 2,994 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a Colt.

    Indianapolis could have drafted Robert Griffin III No. 1 overall in 2012 but instead, the Colts took Andrew Luck. There never really was any doubt that Indy would take Luck with the first pick and two years later there is no doubt the Colts would make the same decision again.
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 13 (11/26/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 12 (11/24/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including Miguel Cabrera's injury, Cody Bellinger's call up and the Seattle Mariners' mess.

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com