New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    LeBron's Cramps (06/06/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    LeBron's cramps dramatically altered Game 1 of the NBA Finals. How would the game have been different if the other stars would have gotten the cramps?



    San Antonio defeated Miami 110-95 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Tim Duncan had 21 points and 10 rebounds as Tony Parker added 19 points and eight assists. The Spurs earned the victory but the temperature in the arena, over 90 degrees in the second half, played a key role.

    LeBron James missed most of the 4th quarter with cramps related to the sweltering conditions on the court. When LeBron left the game with 7:31 remaining in the 4th, Miami led 86-84 and the Heat were 56.4 percent likely to win. In LeBron's absence, San Antonio finished the game on a 26-to-9 run.

    What does LeBron mean to Miami's chances of winning?

    Utilizing Live ScoreCaster, which allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game, we simulated what happened when cramps knocked LeBron out of Game 1.

    LeBron exited the game with 7:31 left in the 4th quarter, he did play 34 more seconds but for all intents and purposes he missed the decisive stretch of the game.

    With LeBron out for the final seven minutes of game time, Miami's expected win probability decreased from 56.4 percent to 38.8 percent. News flash: the Heat need LeBron on the court to win!

    How would the outcome of Game 1 changed if another star suffered cramps?

    Note: These are the simulated results, Miami's expected win probability, after cramps knock individual players out of the game for the final seven minutes.

    Player Heat's Odds of Winning Projected Final Score (MIA-SA)
    LeBron James 38.8% 99.8-101.6
    Dwyane Wade 50.3% 100.6-100.5
    Chris Bosh 51.2% 100.8-100.5
    Tim Duncan 61.1% 101.7-99.8
    Tony Parker 59.0% 101.5-100.0

    If cramps strike any other player besides LeBron, Miami wins Game 1. The NBA said the conditions were the 'Same for both' teams, this is true, but it is unfortunate for Miami that LeBron was the player to develop cramps.

    For the full breakdown of Game 1: Spurs vs. Heat, click here.


    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    GameChangers (06/09/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers (05/28/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop.

    10/13/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 6 - 12, one could find that all highlighted NFL Week and College Football "normal" or better full game picks went 12-9 (57% ATS and O/U). This includes the strongest overall play from either sport, FIU (+13) at UTSA easily covering in a 16-13 loss. In the NFL, all playable totals in the last week went 6-2 (75% O/U). And, it was a particularly strong week with halftime plays as well, with "normal" or better (and there were better) halftime NFL plays going 8-1 (89% ATS and O/U).

    The MLB Playoffs continue to offer great value as all normal or better plays have gone 4-2 (67% ML, O/U and RL) this postseason and all playable picks have generated a +$332 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. All-time, in the MLB postseason, all "normal" or better baseball plays are now 29-11 (73% ML, O/U and RL).

    Also, be sure to sign up for the new Play Analyzer Alert emails which update picks for consensus lines on Saturday mornings for college football and Sunday mornings for the NFL. As an example, the top pick in the Play Analyzer Alert on Saturday was the OVER (58) in the Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan game. The line movement made this a "green" two times normal play at 62.4% likely to cover. Eastern Michigan won 37-27 to cover. In the seven weeks of Play Analyzer alerts, "green" two times normal plays from emails on Saturday and Sunday mornings are now 9-2 (82% ATS and O/U).

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NFL Picks - Week 7
    For Week 7 in the NFL, there are a total of 7 plays that cover the number greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as seven totals that cover by more than a field goal. See the Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers.

    NFL GameChangers - Week 7
    GameChangers, we use our in-game technology to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

    FIND US ONLINE


    Statistical Information Provided by: SportsData © 2012

    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.
    Home | The Predictalator | Features | Privacy |  Customer Support |  Media Contact |  Sitemap
    © 2010-2014 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com