New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    LeBron's Cramps (06/06/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    LeBron's cramps dramatically altered Game 1 of the NBA Finals. How would the game have been different if the other stars would have gotten the cramps?



    San Antonio defeated Miami 110-95 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Tim Duncan had 21 points and 10 rebounds as Tony Parker added 19 points and eight assists. The Spurs earned the victory but the temperature in the arena, over 90 degrees in the second half, played a key role.

    LeBron James missed most of the 4th quarter with cramps related to the sweltering conditions on the court. When LeBron left the game with 7:31 remaining in the 4th, Miami led 86-84 and the Heat were 56.4 percent likely to win. In LeBron's absence, San Antonio finished the game on a 26-to-9 run.

    What does LeBron mean to Miami's chances of winning?

    Utilizing Live ScoreCaster, which allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game, we simulated what happened when cramps knocked LeBron out of Game 1.

    LeBron exited the game with 7:31 left in the 4th quarter, he did play 34 more seconds but for all intents and purposes he missed the decisive stretch of the game.

    With LeBron out for the final seven minutes of game time, Miami's expected win probability decreased from 56.4 percent to 38.8 percent. News flash: the Heat need LeBron on the court to win!

    How would the outcome of Game 1 changed if another star suffered cramps?

    Note: These are the simulated results, Miami's expected win probability, after cramps knock individual players out of the game for the final seven minutes.

    Player Heat's Odds of Winning Projected Final Score (MIA-SA)
    LeBron James 38.8% 99.8-101.6
    Dwyane Wade 50.3% 100.6-100.5
    Chris Bosh 51.2% 100.8-100.5
    Tim Duncan 61.1% 101.7-99.8
    Tony Parker 59.0% 101.5-100.0

    If cramps strike any other player besides LeBron, Miami wins Game 1. The NBA said the conditions were the 'Same for both' teams, this is true, but it is unfortunate for Miami that LeBron was the player to develop cramps.

    For the full breakdown of Game 1: Spurs vs. Heat, click here.


    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    GameChangers (06/09/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers (05/28/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop.

    1/26/2015 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of January 19th - 25th, one could find that all featured, "normal" or better against-the-spread plays in the NBA and college basketball went 13-7 (65% ATS). The ATS success wasn't limited to just full games picks. All normal or better halftime against-the-spread plays in the NBA and college basketball combined to go 64-48 (57% ATS). In the last three weeks all normal or better against-the-spread halftime picks in college basketball picks have gone 132-94 (58% ATS).

    In the previous week's NFL Conference Championship games, the Lock of the Week in the NFL Playoffs (Packers +7.5 at Seattle) easily covered. All-time, in the NFL Playoffs, Locks of the Week are 17-2 (89% ATS), including going 4-1 (80% ATS) in Super Bowls. All playable against-the-spread picks in this NFL postseason are now 6-3 (67% ATS). All-time on the site, all against-the-spread picks in the NFL Playoffs are now 41-13 (76% ATS). Playable prop picks for last Super Bowl went a combined 26-19 (58%), generating a profit of +$847 for a normal $50 player utilizing play value recommendations. Highlighted "normal" plays went 12-7 (63% and +$570), while "2X Green" plays went 4-1 (80% and +$355).

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Super Bowl In-Depth Analysis - (Free)
    See the in-depth breakdown for Super Bowl XLIX including a Game Summary, Matchup Analysis, Key Players and much more - all for free.

    Play Props Pick'em - Win $2,000
    Now in its third year, PredictionMachine.com's Prop Pick'em contest brings a unique twist to props, asking you to select answers to game props including two in-game halftime questions. The Top 50 point scorers will share in a prize pool of $7,000 in site credits including $2,000 to the contest winner, while all participants will get a $10 FREE credit.

    FIND US ONLINE


    Statistical Information Provided by: SportsData © 2012

    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.
    Home | The Predictalator | Features | Privacy |  Customer Support |  Media Contact |  Sitemap
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com