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    Kentucky Derby Analysis (4/29/14)

    by Dan Zucker,
    By Dan Zucker
    In-depth analysis of the 2014 Kentucky Derby including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns of each starter from Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns.

    The Pace Figures will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Pace Figures are not just a single speed number, but rather a series of numbers that are incredibly powerful in identifying the Form Cycle Patterns of a horse.

    To view the free Pace Figures while reading the Kentucky Derby analysis, click here.

    California Chrome

    The first thing to notice about California Chrome (CC) is his ten lifetime starts. As a course of history in the modern age of the Kentucky Derby (modern age is considered from 1979 to the present as 1978 was the last time there was a Triple Crown winner – Affirmed), there have been nine Derby winners who had over ten starts in their career prior to the Derby. The last runner to win the Derby with more than ten starts was Charismatic in 1999 (14 starts).

    California Chrome is the only runner to earn over $1,000,000 lifetime and comes into the Derby as the early morning line favorite. California Chrome has never left the state of California (either racing or training) and is a homebred (owners have a mare that they bred to a stallion). California Chrome is a well-deserved favorite at 3:1 in the early morning line, CC has won each of his last four races by at least five lengths (and heavily bet as well).

    Looking at California Chrome's Pace Figures, CC is on a very good line. California Chrome had three positive patterns – REV (Reversal), SOFT (Soft win) and NPT (New Pace Top) leading into his Santa Anita Derby win (4/5/14). Each of the patterns suggested a forward move and CC did not disappoint winning off of a REV, SOFT and NPT. California Chrome ran the Santa Anita Derby in a 78.8/72.2 (final/4f) meaning he had a slight increase in his final figure while a decrease in his 4f figure, indicating an improving distribution of energy.

    The play: CONTENDER - A deserving Derby favorite, his value is at his 3:1 morning line or higher.

    To read the full article, including analysis, pace figures, categories (CONTENDER, FRINGE CONTENDER, SLOW, REGRESSOR AND GASSED) and graphs on all 20 horses, check out the free Kentucky Derby Analysis article on

    Also currently available on are features on Kentucky Derby Official Race Conditions, Kentucky Derby Weather, The Road to the Kentucky Derby and Derby Prep Race Pace Figures and Past Performances.

    And check back with later in the week for Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day Pick 4 analysis.
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